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Global Warming of 2 Degrees to Halve India’s Wheat Production to 40 Million Tons

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In these days of economic crises it has become unsexy to talk about Global Warming and Climate Change which pose a much greater threat to mankind. The Western countries have turned apathetic towards climate change with most like Canada, USA and UK showing shocking attitude towards Global Warming . The reason is that rich countries can throw resources at ameliorating the affects of climate change . The poor countries have little in terms of resources to either slowdown climate change or change the attitude of the richer countries. South Asia and Africa two of the poorest regions in the world will face the worst of the global warming affects. A new study has indicated  that India’s wheat yield could be halved to 40 million tons a year from the current 80 million tons due to rising temperature. The reason is that wheat yields will come down as temperature goes up by 2 degrees centigrade or more.

Extreme heat can accelerate wheat aging, an effect that reduces crop yields. The overall decline could be as much as 50 per cent with two degree increase in temperature and is way above than what has been anticipated in existing crop forecasting models.The new research implies that climate warming presents even greater challenges to wheat production in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar than current models predict.
The team comprising scientists from Stanford University and International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre in Mexico studied the wheat growing regions of Indo-Gangetic plains with satellite data for nine years to pick up the signs of early maturity in wheat and compare it against rising temperature.

Climate Change has started happening already but like IPCC it is being ridiculed because there is no proof. Climate skeptics can use the complexity of the science of global warming as a weapon to disrepute the whole theory. But there is too much overwhelming series of facts like the hottest years in centuriers, ice sheets melting , ferocious storms to just say that we can’t say for sure.

Recently the weather conditions have become extreme in many parts of Asia and Europe.While the global temperatures this year are said to be the highest since records were kept,devastating climate conditions have affected different parts of the world.It reads straight out of an Global Warming Disaster 101.Global Wheat and Rice Prices have increaseddramatically as a Record Drought Affects Russia . China and Pakistan are seeing devastating floods which have displaced millions besides endangering the fragile Pakistani Economy.While  the anti Climate Changers will say that it has nothing to do with human induced carbon emissions,there is still nothing to prove that it is not so.Doomsday scenarios projected by the end of the century if global temperatures increase by more than 2 Degrees Centigrade are playing out right now.

Rising Food Prices in India and elsewhere are already causing havoc with Food Riots, Hunger and Malnutrition. Hundreds of Millions in India go Hungry everyday without the Global Warming Affect. What would happen when Food Production falls in Halve is just too painful to analyze.

The recent weather catastrophe in different parts of the world has pushed up the food prices.The Russian Wheat Export Ban imposed earlier had exacerbated the situation with news coming of the ban being extended into 2011.The exponential increase in wheat price which had moderated earlier is starting to soar again.The rising food price has led to riots in the Maputo town in Mozambique where food prices were increased by25%.Food insecurity is raging in the poorest parts of the world amongst populations which are most vulnerable to slight increase in food prices.Wheat Prices have increased 74% in the last 3-4 months and other grain prices have moved up in sympathy as well.Food inflation is rearing its ugly head with India reporting double digit inflation in Food Prices.China has also sown increased wheat and port prices due to incessant flooding.Major Food importers like Bangladesh are increasing their imports of Rice as Wheat is expected to be in short supply.Animal Feedstock is being substituted with corn based products from wheat based products.This has led to a  general rise in prices of all grains leading to worldwide distress.Major food producing and consuming countries like China and India are clamping down on exports of food items as it is every country on their own.Globalization of Agriculture has not proved to be more of a bane than boon as speculation in agri futures has led to a faster rise in food prices.The future of Food Security looks bleak with increasing population and affluence marching ahead of the food growth.


Sneha Shah

I am Sneha, the Editor-in-chief for the Blog. We would be glad to receive suggestions, inputs & comments on GWI from you guys to keep it going! You can contact me for consultancy/trade inquires by writing an email to

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