The Reserve Bank of India has clarified that Indian individuals cannot trade in the forex markets under FEMA rules.Note a number of Indian brokers and forex companies were advertising heavily promising big returns to retail investors.Note forex markets are extremely tough to trade even for professional traders for institutions.For retail investors they are a sure shot way to lose money in large amounts.Note forex markets offer much higher leverage than normal Futures Equity markets.Being an effectively zero sum game and requiring high amounts of knowledge ,forex markets are just too sophisticated for retail investors in my view.But they are quite lucrative for forex trading portals and companies whose main target semgent are retail investors.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) may rescue the JNNSM process which seems to be headed for certain problems.The Bank is committing to provide loan guarantees for under 30 MW projects to Indian Banks and upto 25% equity investment into >30 MW projects.Note debt financing is a major issue which was talked about by the biggest Indian utilities for not participating.Note ADB has already committed to setting up 500 MW Renewable Energy Capacity in India in JV with NTPC.This will further increase ADB’s exposure to Solar Energy in India.It remains to be seen if ADB give equity and debt to many of these projects which don’t seem to be feasible at these prices.Will ADB willing to take losses in these ventures and provide loans to many of these unknown firms with no track record.
Note the issue size of the IPO is quite small at around $100 million which means the retail portion is only $30 million.Coal India IPO with a $3 billion issue and $1 billion retail portion got subscribed by almost 2-2.5x.This mean that Punjab and Sind Bank can get subscribed by almost 60x since MOIL IPO got 55-60 times overall subscription with almost 31x retail portion even when the issue size was almost triple that of Punjab and Sind Bank.Note though MOIL IPO in my opinion was more undervalued than PNSB,still I think oversubscription in case of this PSU Bank would be higher than that and could easily cross the 31x retail that MOIL IPO got
Indian Small Cap and Mid Cap Stocks got massacred today even as the rest of the global markets were up.There was no specific catalysts for the sharp sell off in the small cap space which was down more than 5% with a large number of stocks hitting circuit filters on their way down.FII and brokerage favorite mid cap stocks were the worst off declining by anywhere between 10-20%.Note India has seen a huge wave of scandals hitting the political and business spheres in the past couple of months.While Corruption is nothing new to India with India’s Supreme Court calling “Corruption a Way of Life” ,the rising frequency has unnerved the investors.The Stock Market has also seen a number of scams hitting the news with well regarded stocks tanking by more than 50% in less than a week.Since its hard to explain all the scams that have been hitting India,I am listing out the blog posts explaining the scams here.
Punjab and Sind Bank is a National PSU (Public Sector Undertaking) which is coming with a Rs 480 crore IPO by selling 4 crore shares at around Rs 113-120.The Company is offering 18% of its equity in the offering which would give it a market capitalization of roughly Rs 2500 crore ($550 million) at the upper end of the price band.Note there are a large number of mid cap and large cap PSU banks listed on the Indian markets.Note most of the PSU banks have seen a very good bull run in the last year and a half significantly outperforming the rest of the market.However the last 3-4 months have been tough with a LIC Housing Finance Scandal implicating top PSU Bank Officials for taking Bribes for Loans.The rise in deposit rates and tight liquidity has also hurt the sentiment for PSU Bank stocks.However,Banking remains one of the best ways to play the Indian growth story as financial inclusion remains very low.PSU Banks in general trade at low valuations compared to the private bank peers and mid cap PSU banks at lower multiples than larger ones like SBI,Bank of Baroda and PNB.
Summary
Punjab and Sind Bank seems a no brainer due to its significant discount on its fair valuation.At 5x P/E and around 1.2x P/B ,Punjab and Sind Bank is being sold at a substantial discount to the rest of PSU banks which are lower quality in terms of growth and margins.There are some mitigating factors like the low NIM ratio however the valuation more than covers for that up.The only problem in case of the Punjab and Sind Bank IPO is going to be oversubscription.Like MOIL IPO which saw 55-60 times oversubscription,same thing could happen here also.
India’s Banking Sector is highly profitable earnings very high Lending Deposit Spreads.India’s Central Bank RBI has said that this spread (NIM) needs to come down in order for India to grow by double digits.However the Banks are in no mood to change their highly profitable business model.With India’s Economy growing at a rapid pace the banks are seeing high credit growth and net interest income as well.They are opposed to any change in the status quo which allows them to make supernormal profits in the highly regulated banking sector.Note I am calling the Financial Sector as an Oligopoly because the Central Bank strictly controls the entry of new players in the Banking Sector.RBI has recently proposed giving new banking licenses to some more companies but it won’t change the structure of the industry.