First Solar,the US based Cadmium Tellurium (Cd-Te) is the lowest cost panel producer in the world today if you don’t include any penalty for low efficiency.Even if you penalize the Cd-Te Technology for its lower efficiency vis-a-vis the higher efficiency crystalline technology,First Solar is clearly the leader with a core cost of 74c/watt.The company has a roadmap of reducing the cost to 52c/watt by 2014 and given its track record it seems quite achievable.In Cd-Te,some new competitors have claimed even lower costs than First Solar but they have yet to prove it in large scale production.General Electric,Abound Solar are some of the other Cd-Te players which are planning commercial production in a year or two.But with around 2 GW of capacity,they will have a lot of catching up to do.
Australia has shortlisted 8 projects with 4 Solar PV and 4 Solar Thermal Projects for its Solar Flagship Program which will be decided in 2011.BP Solar with 150 MW and Suntech/Infigen with 195 MW are on the shortlist.The other 2 companies are energy utilities which are proposing to use Cd-Te Panels ( I think from First Solar).Note both of these energy utilities are small and might face problems in fund raising and execution.The firms shortlisted for the Solar Thermal Projects don’t inspire much confidence either.The selection procedure and how the subsidy will be disbursed has ran into controversy with accusations of bias and partiality.WA has not gotten any projects while Queensland province has gotten most of the projects.The firms shortlisted have also come under fire as they don’t have much experience.Not much information on how the firms were shortlisted but these companies are definitely not the best or cheapest by a big margin.Australia has generally made a mess of promoting renewable energy with New South Wales cutting feed in tariffs sharply after giving an overly generous subsidy.The Solar Flagship Program looks like an expensive mistake in the making if it comes to fruition.
Solar Power in India is growing at a rapid clip with the strong government support through the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM).Rapidly Falling Costs,Massive Power Deficits,Huge Growing Energy Demand and Peak Oil all make Solar Energy in India one of the biggest energy opportunities in the 21st Century.People are slowly recognizing this large Green Money Making Opportunity with companies like Suntech,Siemens and Trina Solar entering into partnership with local players.Suntech has tied up with independent power producer IPP while Siemens has tied up for solar thermal energy with the Adani Conglomerate.This is just the initial trickle with large foreign companies waiting to flood the Indian market.There have been some initial hiccups in Debt Financing of Solar Energy in India but I expect the long term secular growth story to be unaffected. Solar Power Companies in India can be divided into various categories based on solar equipment manufacturing,independent power producer,renewable arms of large power companies etc.I have already covered the Top 10 Solar Module Production Companies in my Solar Panels in India article.Here is the list once again.
With most of the low hanging fruit of polysilicon costs already gone,the industry has to focus on efficiency to cut down on costs.Selective emitters,microinverters,DC-DC optimization and other technologies are already finding takers.A Number of microinverter companies like Tigo,Enphase Energy etc are tying up with global heavyweights like Suntech and Sunpower to increase their penetration and cut costs.National Semiconductor has also tied up with Suntech to integrate its products with Suntech Modules to improve efficiency and reliability.The Balance of Systems costs for Solar Panels and their Performance are not usually paid a lot of attention.But with every cent now making a big difference,these technology could make or break a company in this commoditizing industry.While the value addition and costs of these new products are still subject to market acceptance,its a major change for the industry.This is the next phase in the evolution of the solar energy industry as it looks to additional ways to cut costs and bring solar energy to grid parity.Look for M&A in this space as well since the industry is fragmented with a host of VC backed startups.
Polysilicon used to be Big in the Supply Constrained Days of 2007 and 2008.This commodity which is generally producers for $30/kg used to be sold at $400/kg by Polysilicon Producers as the Exponential Demand Growth in the Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Industry pushed the prices to astronomical levels.With Polysilicon being the only constraining link in the Supply Chain,Downstream Solar Companies with access to Cheap Polysilicon Contracts used to be the Kings of the Industry.Polysilicon Producers like MEMC,Wacker etc. managed to sign many sweetheart deals on those days with 10-15% prepayments and other favorable conditions loaded in the favor of the upstream suppliers.
China is making massive investments into Africa exploiting the virgin natural resources of the Dark Continent for its voracious industries at home.Unlike the Developed Nations,the Chinese government has no qualms about the country’s rulers or human rights violations.Not surprisingly as it has been accused by activists of violating labor and environment rights in areas where it has invested.Most of the African countries have despotic and corrupt regimes looking to sell the continents rich resources to anyone willing to pay them.They have found a compliant partner in China which gives them a red carpet treatment.Mozambique is the latest country to sign a MOU which would lead to Chinese largesse.