Valuation
June 25, 2012
I have always said that investing in Indian mutual funds is a dumb idea given the lack of regulation , under performance, high fees and front […]
June 22, 2012
However India's biggest capital good equipment company BHEL owned by the government is plannning a $500 million investment to build a solar cell factory in at Sakoli which is part Union heavy industries minister Praful Patel's constituency Bhandara.Talk about how dumb you can get. BHEL hardly has too much expertise in the solar panel industry and with solar cells in massive oversupply,it is almost sure to lose money. However that is how things work with Indian government companies where investment is made at the whims of ministers rather than rationality and business sense.BHEL is currently trading at one of the lowest valuations in its 10 year history and its not a big wonder why. The company has benefited in the past as did other machinery and engineering companies from an infrastructure invesment boom. However those glory days are over for the company as it faces competition from the Chinese companies and decreasing orders flow. Praful Patel the minister has already spent a few years in the airline ministry presiding over the conversion of the state owned carrier Air India ino a basket case. Now its the turn of BHEL to be turned into a basket case as well.
May 21, 2012
Facebook overvaluation proves itself with underwriters left holding shares worth billions of dollars
There is no disputing the fact of Facebook dominance in social media but its model of making money is far from proved to give it such a huge market value . The underwriters of the company are said to have massive amounts of shares worth billions which they have bought to hold the company's stock price above the IPO price of $38. The trading was marked by a number of glitches which is now being investigated by SEC. This has become a regular occurence reducing trust in the US capital market systems . A lot of the future earnings power is already built into the stock price of the company at $100 billion. It will take a lot of effort to get to the earnings level to justify the market price . In the fast changing technology landscape that is a huge risk . 3 years ago nobody would have questioned the dominance of Nokia and RIMM in the mobile space . But now these companies are fighting for survival. Stock picking is a game of probabilities and in the case of Facebook the current stock price does not justify the risk in buying it.
January 14, 2012
The Indian Solar Power has been one bright spot in the gloomy infrastructure and engineering sectors in 2011. With share prices crashing with growing corruption, land acquisition and financing problems, Solar Energy has surged in India thanks to government support and subsidies . While a number of Green Technology companies have started up to capitalize on the growing renewable energy trend, the established constuction companies in India have not been far behind . While utilities like Tata Power, Adani, Reliance Power, NTPC have already built or are setting up power plants based on solar panels , L&T has become a major solar EPC players . L&T is now raising debt with a $100 million issue to fund its solar expansion plans .
January 6, 2012
While the larger stock brokers have seen reduced profits,the smaller ones have had to shut down or sell.This trend has been exacerbated last year with the rise of computer controlled algorithmic trading.Most of these small brokers which used arbitraging strategy to generate profits have seen their main business evaporate.Retail investors in India have also avoided the stock market which has become a corruption landmine.With even top institutions like GMO,Goldman becoming victims of frauds,individual investors have no chance.Also market operators have made the Indian stock market a pump and dump heaven even as SEBI takes a long time to crack down on the abuses.
October 7, 2011
In the past ten years, cement consumption in India grew by approximately 7.5% per year. The building industry developed very dynamically, driven by the strong growth of population and the quick expansion of infrastructure. In 2005, India was after China the second largest cement consumer with around 135 million tonnes.
July 10, 2011
Mutual Fund Companies have seen a steady growth driven by the growing financial assets being generated by the fast growing Indian economy.But the Mutual Fund Industry like other sectors such as Real Estate and Telecom too has come under the spotlight for some illegal activity.While you can't call the industry corrupt because of some fraudulent activities it does raise questions on the industry ethics.Top Mutual Funds in the country like HDFC and L&T have been fined by the stock market regulator SEBI for front running.For those who don't understand what the term means,front running is an illegal activity whereby a fund manager or fund official makes personal gains by making trades on his account before doing a trade for the fund.This causes losses for the fund investor and is akin to stealing.However like other corrupt practices in the stock market industry,SEBI lets them go with small fines which don't deter more such frauds.It is also not unknown that some fund managers connive with company promoters and market operators to rig and do circular trading.Not only is this a problem,another massive problem with the industry is its underperformance as compared to the benchmarks.While earlier mutual funds were known to outperform the benchmarks like the Nifty,a recent Crisil study has dispelled this myth.Given these disadvantages of mutual fund ,it is time to invest in Indian ETFs though not a lot of variety exists in the Indian stock market yet.
July 7, 2011
Mutual Funds are one of the most common ways to invest in equity and debt and a large mutual fund industry is involved in this endeavour.There are large number of high paying professions in Wall Street which depend on the mutual fund industry which include stock brokers and sales persons.However the amount of cost of mutual funds is not proportionate to the gains they give out.This is the reason that Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and passive funds which have lower expense ratios and expenses are gaining billions of dollars in money.The reason is that a large number of mutual funds regularly underperform the benchmarks.This has caused massive heartburn amongst investors who have to pay large amounts of fees for the services of the professional fund managers.This has been the trend historically and found amongst numerous countries as well.Besides the costs of the sales and distribution of these mutual fund with their hefty commissions also falls on the investor ultimately.However the prevailing custom of investing in mutual funds is not easily broken despite the underperformance of the mutual fund industry.Most of the advantages of mutual fund can now be found in ETFs which have much lower costs.They also remove the disadvantages such as the possibility of a bad mutual fund manager.
May 31, 2011
Indian equity investing through offshore funds might not be the best idea as these funds have underperformed the benchmarks by putting too much weight on infrastructure and capital goods sector.Note lured by the $500 billion investment target for Indian infrastructure,an Indian infra ETF INXX was also launched at a ludicrous valuation.However the endemic corruption in India with scams related to major infrastructure sectors like Real Estate,Telecom popping up everyday,its not a surprise that the stocks have tanked.Note investing in the Indian stocks markets is hazardous with issues like insider trading,pump and dump schemes quite rampant.The risks of corruption are huge and even top asset managers like Goldman,GMO have become victims of fly by night operators just like a simple retail investor.
May 10, 2011
Power Finance Corporation (PFC) will raise ~$1 billion through a follow-on-public offer (FPO) which is the first divestment by the Government for FY12.Note the government of India has set a target to raise $9 billion through divestment of public sector (PSU) companies stocks.PTC India Financial Services another company operating in the same segment offering finance to power generation companies came out with an IPO.Despite advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Energy Sector,the valuation of the company had been kept too high leading to 20-30% losses from the IPO price.However PFC does not have a high valuation trading for around 9-10x P/E which is comparable to the competitors like REC.However the valuation is not very low also keeping in mind the rising interest rate environment which is making life tough for the Indian Banks and financial intermediaries.Power Finance Corporation has substantial advantages of growth,a good business model in India’s booming Electricity Sector where the List of Power Companies are growing exponentially.The valuation of the company also has been kept at a reasonable level at a discount of around 5% from the prevailing stock market price.The growth of the company has been impressive but a rising interest rate environment,competition from other power finance government providers like IFCI,IDFC,REC makes the issue neutral.It is always possible to buy the stock later or buy competitors in the same space like REC.The stock is a good buy for the long term given the fundamentals,good business sector,however current short term macro problems does not make it a great buy currently.
May 2, 2011
SBI and HDFC Bank which are the 2 of the largest banks in the country have protested against the RBI proposal to free up the interest rate given on savings account in India.Note RBI fixes the rate at which money deposited in saings account earns interest currently for all banks in India.The current rate is 3.5% which is way below the near double digit inflation rate being experienced in India.Most Indians deposit their savings in bank saving and fixed deposit accounts as there is no widespread equity or debt investment culture in the country.This allows banks with a large retail depositer base to earn supernormal profits by paying pathetic interest rates on savings account and lending that money at 12-13%.While the public sector banks have to serve a lot of priority sectors private banks have no such concerns.This leads to high NIM for private banks leading to huge profit growth each year.This has made investing in top banks in India such an attractive proposition.
April 22, 2011
Future Ventures is a VC/Private Equity Company that has invested in a number of small Indian companies and startups mainly focused on the consumption industry in India.With India growing at around 8-9% in the last few years and expectations of strong future growth driven by consumption,Future Ventures seems a good investment considering the portfolio of companies that it owns (analyzed below).Future Ventures is a part of the Future Group run by Kishore Biyani who started India's most famous retail company Pantaloons.The Company has set a price band of 10-11 rupees a share with a target of raising around Rs. 750crore though the IPO.This would represent around 40% of the equity which would give it a post IPO market capitalization of around $375 million.Note the company had tried to come with an IPO 2 years ago but it was deemed to expensive at that time.
March 19, 2011
India's Economy is being hampered in its growth trajectory by lack of infrastructure which is leading to supply side problems.India suffers woefully from a lack of roads,electricity,ports etc. and almost a trillion dollars is going to be spent in the next few years as demand outstrips supply.India's Machinery and Capital Goods Industry is set to capitalize on this strong growth and is already seeing massive orders which are 2-3 years worth of their annual revenue.While the stock valuations of the capital goods equipment manufacturers has come down a bit from the heavy days of 2008,they are still quite high reflecting the strong growth potential.India's Engineering Industry is also composed of a number of smaller manufacturers that export light engineering equipment worth several billion dollars mostly to developing countries.India's Machinery Sector is composed of a mix of government owned and private companies as well as the giant capital goods MCN conglomerates like Areva and others.Here is a list of the major Indian equipment manufacturers.
March 16, 2011
PTC India Financial Services has substantial advantages of growth,a good business model in India's booming Energy Sector.However the valuation of the company has been kept too high for essentially what is a financial intermediary.The growth of the company has been compensated by the high valuation making it not such a good buy especially in the context of the current stock market and economic conditions.It might be better to look at cheaper alternatives in the Indian Infra Sector.
March 8, 2011
India is set to see a massive infrastructure capex cycle over the next decade as the existing infrastructure fails to support India's massive population.$500 Billion is expected to be spent in India's next 5 year plan with expenditure concentrated on roads,railways,ports,water,power,transportation etc.Capital Goods,Construction and Real Estate Companies will benefit hugely from this capex cycle.A Number of Companies have been raising capital from the Indian Stock Markets as India requires massive amounts of capital to fund its ambitious growth plans. Here is the list of top construction companies in India on the basis of their tie-ups with their international counterparts, technological advancements, generating money from the market to trigger their expansion plans and for establishing an entire township in the wastelands and making it the hottest commercial destination.Note Infrastructure companies in recent days have taken a massive beating falling to their 2008 Lehman lows.This is due the the numerous scams hitting the country,delays due to land acquisition,high interest rates and slow execution.However the long term potential of these construction/EPC companies in India remains excellent due to the massive investments.
March 8, 2011
India's GDP has been growing at a rapid clip over the past decade and is set to grow at even a faster pace in the coming decade.Financial services penetration of the Indian economy is quite low compared to even other developing economies.With majority of the Indian population mired in poverty,access to banks and financial companies is quite hard as people lack knowledge and education.India's banks have grown at a rapid pace over the past 2 decades after the financial liberalization.However this growth has still lacked in meeting the massive demand in the need of financial intermediation.This has led to the growth on non-banking financing companies (NBFCs) and microfinance companies.With the opening of the insurance sector,financial companies in India are set to enter a new growth phase.Major banks in India are either state owned or previous government owned institutions which have been fully privatized like ICICI and HDFC Bank.Both the state owned banks and the private banks have managed to grow without throwing the whole system in a crisis like what has happened in the recent past in Europe and USA and in China in the 1990s.Here is a list of the 10 Major Banks in India
March 7, 2011
Siemens derives almost 30-35% of its annual 20 Billion Euros in revenues from its Environmental Portfolio.The company is looking to spin out its LED Lighting OSRAM business in an IPO later this year.Siemens has a market capitalization of around $116 billion so doing a simplistic analysis the market cap of its Green Business would be around $35 billion dwarfing the market cap of First Solar or Vestas.
March 7, 2011
Lovable Lingerie is an innerwear textile company that is coming out with a $20 million IPO.Unlike other totally junk issues which are totally hands of market operators,this one seems to have decent fundamentals and the valuation is not too expensive either.The company has managed to sell 6% pre-IPO to Sequioa Capital which is one of the blue blood PE firms in the country.However this should not be an endorsement given that a number of their investments have bombed in the recent mid cap and small cap carnage.Corporate governance and management issues in small companies in India is totally out of control so investing just based on pure fundamentals does not help.Also a number of other companies in the same sector in textiles remain at attractive valuations.That said the company does have good differentiation as it leverages on the fast growing Indian consumer growth story.The company sells Lingerie though top retail outlets like Lifestyle,Shopper's Stop in top Indian metros and has good brand recall.Here are the positives and negatives of the company based on its DRHP.
March 4, 2011
The MarketWatch news column quotes a Citigroup analysis note that says that the Korean Stock Index Kospi level of 1960 incorporates an oil barrel prices of more than $115 .This is quite absurd since the stock market valuation at any point of time is a hugely complex function of a variety of structural,sentimental,cyclical factors.I have no doubt that the writers of the piece have done extensive analysis but the conclusion is so patently foolish that it earns the "Stupid Financial Analysis of the Day" award.
February 16, 2011
Acropetal Technologies is a bit different from the run of the mill junk IPOs coming out in Feb 2011.After a deluge of crap IPOs in 2010,2011 has not seen many of them as the markets have corrected by around 15%.However a recent rally has bought out the junk companies in association with their associated shady bankers and market operators.Omkar,Sudar,FCL are some of the totally crap IPOs which have happened or in the process of happening.Acropetal Technologies is an IT/ITES company plans to raise Rs 170-crore through its IPO on February 21. The company has fixed the price-band of its IPO at between Rs 88 and Rs 90 per equity share.The company will use Rs 55 crore for acquisitions and Rs 26 crores for a software office.The company seems better quality than the junk and may merit a look from investors though there are much better companies on offer at better prices in the secondary markets.Here are the positives and negatives of the IPO
February 16, 2011
In the season of scams and scandals when the erstwhile high flying mid cap and small cap names are getting battered for management issues,Sudar Garments has surprisingly come out with an IPO despite spotty corporate governance issues.Like so many of the junk IPOs coming out in 2010,this one too should managed to raise money through market operators.The modus operandi of these IPOs is mostly pump and dump where a few unscrupulous and shady brokers are responsible for managing the issue.With the stock market regulator SEBI refusing to crack down on these blatant manipulation,the pipeline of crappy small cap junk IPOs in the Indian stock market keeps growing.Thought that the current market crash would have removed them,but apparently not so as the junk IPO industry keeps growing stronger.This despite the more than 50% crash on issue day of Omkar Chemicals ( a junk IPO).Here are some of the notable negatives of the issue which has been given a 1 out of a 5 rating by rating agency CRISIL (not that the rating help the retail investors).
February 14, 2011
Fineotex Chemicals (FCL) is a Maharashtra based small chemicals company which is coming out with an IPO for 4.2 million shares at Rs 60-72 to raise Rs 25-30 crores with a total market cap of around Rs 42-50 crores.The company has a 5000 tons plant and is expanding by 13000 tons.The company has little resources by way of cash and it seems strange that a Rs 15 crore company would raise money from the capital markets rather than raising more debt which seems low at around Rs 80 lakhs.Can't find much to say anything positive except that there are no lawsuits pending against the promoters.Here are the negatives.
Omkar Specialty Chemicals was a major disaster for all the investors who decided to gamble on small cap IPO junk.Gambling on FCL in this environment does not make any sense,would make more sense to gamble your money in a casino.In this market you would have a much better chance of returns.
February 10, 2011
India's Infrastructure Sector which was considered the ideal play on India's fast growing GDP and its huge infrastructure requirements long commanded nosebleed valuations.While realty stocks which are closely related to the infra ones had long collapsed after the GFC in 2008 ,the infrastructure stocks had retained their preeminence in the stock market rally.However end 2010 and 2011 has seen a vicious change in their fortunes.Stocks like IVRCL,IRB,Punj Lloyd,L&T,Gammon etc have seen their stock prices nosedive.The stocks have corrected far more than the broader market which has itself fallen more than 15% in 2011. The problems related to the infrastructure stocks are varied and they have converged for investors to totally lose confidence in this sector something akin to the realty sector.The list of the problems are
December 14, 2010
Note the issue size of the IPO is quite small at around $100 million which means the retail portion is only $30 million.Coal India IPO with a $3 billion issue and $1 billion retail portion got subscribed by almost 2-2.5x.This mean that Punjab and Sind Bank can get subscribed by almost 60x since MOIL IPO got 55-60 times overall subscription with almost 31x retail portion even when the issue size was almost triple that of Punjab and Sind Bank.Note though MOIL IPO in my opinion was more undervalued than PNSB,still I think oversubscription in case of this PSU Bank would be higher than that and could easily cross the 31x retail that MOIL IPO got
December 7, 2010
A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services is a Private Equity Promoted Facilities Management,Waste Management and EPC Company which is getting into the business of biomass energy.Company has fixed a price band at Rs 400-410 comprising of fresh issue of Rs 675 crore (~$150million) by the company and an offer for sale of upto 4.5 million shares by the selling shareholders.Note Renewable Energy in India has a bright future with around 5 GW of Renewable Energy Capacity to be installed per year over the next decade.However Biomass Energy may not be the best area considering the considerable expense and uncertainty in acquisition of feedstock.The Company already operates in 3 distinct sectors namely
Summary
A2Z is very similar in nature and valuation to VA Tech Wabag which did a successful IPO recently.The margin profile,growth and management is very similar.As such A2Z is a decent company however its not a compelling buy given the valuation.Note Biomass Energy is a tough sector to operate in and Orient Green Power has done badly since its IPO without having done anything badly as such.A2Z given the overall qualitative and quantitative factors seems a good stock at fair valuation.This makes the company a decent one to buy.
December 1, 2010
Manganese Ore India Limited (MOIL),the government owned miner has seen massive oversubscription of its IPO being subscribed 55 times and should easily reach around 60 times.I had written that the MOIL IPO price of Rs 340-375 makes the valuation hugely attractive which would lead to oversubscription.The fundamentals of this stock easily command a much higher price given its low cost leadership position in the fast growing Indian market.The valuation of the company was compelling even at a 25% higher price point as I had written earlier but at around Rs 6300 crore,MOIL had become a no brainer.
While some of the oversubscription could also have been due to people's expectation of oversubscription,I think most of the demand was fundamental in nature.The Indian primary market is showing huge demand for quality stocks.Junk IPOs unless they are not manipulated are showing weak demand .Somewhat doubtful IPO of Claris Lifesciences was forced to decrease its price by 20% as there were not enough takers for the issue.
November 25, 2010
One97 a Private Equity Backed Mobile Value Added Service (VAS) Company is raising Rs 120 crore ( $25 million) from the Stock Market in an IPO.The Company operates in India's Telecom Sector which is the fastest growing in terms of subscribers and represents a good growth opportunity as 3G services starts to roll out.
The Company has not indicated the pricing of shares as of now ,only that it wants to raise Rs 120 crore.Note the VAS Category is seeing increasing competition with a number of new entrants.One97 has diversified into a combined VAS player cum Technology Investor makings its valuation difficult.Note the VAS sector is no longer a unique or fancied one as OnMobile has already listed sometime ago and its valuation has decreased dramatically since then despite improved profits.I would sit out on this one due to the complicated nature of the business,slowing growth and valuation difficulties.A higher risk investor probably might want to buy this one.