Supply
June 26, 2013
Real Estate crash in India Estate prices have kept moving upwards relentlessly even as other asset classes have languished. Corporate mis-governance and corruption has driven investors […]
July 6, 2012
India’s Green Companies are seeing tremendous growth backed by the nation’s massive energy demand increase. However, it is a known fact that India’s power situation is […]
February 14, 2012
The US Import Sanctions on Chinese Solar Panel imports will become a non-event soon as Chinese solar panel producers are easily short circuting the sanctions. They are using a number of strategies to protect themselves from the upcoming duties and anti-dumping measures. This shows that globalization makes the use of specific duties on a nation quite useless and only benefits the lawyers . The reason is that private companies are much more faster and nimble compared to the slow moving bureaucrats .
January 31, 2012
India's Real Estate Companies have seen a very tough 3-4 years with interest rates climbing, investors running away from shoddy accounting and the global macro scene being quite bad. One needs only to look at the stock price chart to see times have been very bad. Besides some of these companies have come under court scanner for their practises with Unitech CEO spending some months in jail for a telecom scam. However property prices have not come down as India's real estate bubble seems immune from crises in the West and in India . Prices have more or less remained stable while other assets have seen a major carnage at one point or the other.
January 16, 2012
Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of
a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR
b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms
January 14, 2012
How Chinese Module Makers will use the Taiwanese Cell Producers to Circumvent US Anti-Dumping Policy
The USA and China are locked in a bitter tiff over solar panel imports from China. Note Solarworld filed a petition with the ITC which in all probability will put an anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar modules. Other countries whose solar panel producers have been swamped by the super cheap Solar Panel imports too are thinking of special custom duties. However the big Tier 1 Chinese solar panel makers are not sitting idle . They have already come out with strategies to circumvent the US Solar Panel Duties if they are imposed .
January 9, 2012
Solar Trade Wars are becoming the norm in the globe these days with the major one between USA and China.The instigator is the German solar company Solarworld which helped started the ITC Case in the USA.India too is thinking of putting some kind of import duty to protect its domestic solar panel producers which are dropping like flies.Chinese solar panel producers have swamped the world with super cheap solar modules.Though a part of their low prices can be explained by competitive advantage, another part is due to the labor,capital subsidy given by the Chinese government.It would not take a rocket scientist to say that some of the biggest Chinese solar companies are insolvent and would be dead within a month without Chinese state loans.
January 7, 2012
The German Solar Energy Market is biggest in the world and has installed the largest number of solar panels for the last few years.2012 promises to be no different with Germany again set to the biggest solar market for solar panel manufacturers though Italy would give good competition.The German Solar Subsidy program has been the best in the world unlike the start and stop feed in tariff programs of Spain,Czech,UK,Australia and other places.A stable step in cut of feed in tariffs has helped solar energy prices coming down by more than 50% in the last few years though demand has only increased.
December 7, 2011
Investing Money in India right now is a very confusing matter given the large number of choices and the lack of attractiveness of different assets due to different reasons.There are hundreds of voices seemingly intelligent but who are selling their own books.If you turn on the finance new channels they will keep saying buy stocks for the long term as if a normal investor can make money by buying stocks for the short term.Gold proponents will say that it has been a great investment over the last several years and with the US,European systemic shocks it will remain so.However the rapid uptrend in gold prices has made it a somewhat risky investment.Investing in Gold is also not easy given the wide array of choices like Gold ETFs,physical or futures.So lets see each asset class with its pros and cons
July 15, 2011
Phono Solar is a JV between Phono Technologies Switzerland and Sumec Group of China.Phono’s parent company SUMEC Group has been in the PV industry from early 2004. Sumec and Sinomach family of companies claim to have $15 billion in revenues each year.SUMEC Group Corporation (SUMEC), founded in 1978, is a key member of China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH).SUMEC’s core business consists of shipbuilding and project contracting of complete equipment and engineering; the R&D, manufacturing and export of machinery and electric products including power tools, garden tools, power machinery
Phono Solar’s three production facilities will produce more than 500MW of PV Modules in 2011.The products are widely used in many fields such as power station, telecom, transportation, lightening, broadcasting, civil defense, marine etc.The company's products are made in China and marketed by the Swiss company under the Phono Solar Brand.The Company also sells micro wind turbines which are used in small residential installations.
July 8, 2011
Renewable Energy Corporation (REC ) is one of the biggest European solar companies and is completely vertically integrated.What that means is that REC makes all the components in the crystalline silicon supply chain from polysilicon to wafers to cells and modules.REC was earlier primarily a polysilicon and wafer producer but it is not becoming more active in the solar panels area.REC Silicon and REC Wafer are among the world's largest producers of polysilicon and wafers, respectively, for solar applications.This is the reason that REC solar panels are in general cheaper than other European and Japanese solar panels like Solarworld,Sharp,Kyocera and others.Due to the high cost of production,REC has shut down its factories in Norway and is mainly producing solar cells and solar modules at its new solar complex in Singapore.REC Solar has production facilities around the globe but it is concentrating its production in Asian factories.Despite stiff competition from Chinese solar panels which has led to bankruptcy of numerous solar companies in the West,REC is well capitalized and should be one of the survivors of the current solar price wars.As such the warranty on the solar panels from REC should hold good for the 25 years.
July 8, 2011
JA Solar is the biggest solar cell producer in the world with more than 2000 MW of silicon cell capacity.The company has one of the lowest costs in processing of solar cells from solar wafers.The company is primarily a supplier of solar cells to most solar panel producers in Europe and Asia.However the sharp fall in solar panel prices in 2011 has resulted in most of the European companies shutting shop which has meant that JA Solar has faced a large loss in customer orders for its solar cells.Unlike its peer Trina and Yingli Solar,JA Solar does not have a good brand name or distribution of solar panels.It is more of a upstream supplier of solar products to solar comapnies rather than a end distributor of solar panels.JA Solar has diversified into making solar panels of its own and in partnership with other companies.Having a strong presence in the end market has become essential to survive in the cutthroad solar market.
July 7, 2011
Solar Panels have recently become a point of trade friction between USA and China as a massive oversupply of solar panels has resulted in the prices of solar panels dropping by almost 50% in one year.This has caused great distress amongst solar panel manufacturers in the USA particularly the high cost ones which have been forced to close.Falling prices of solar panels are great news for customers but bad news for the producers of these solar panels.Now US and European companies are selling their solar panels advertising their "made in USA" credentials.This is to help them sell the solar panels which cost more but according to them have better quality and appeal to the patriotism of the Americans.Note the 2009 Economic Stimulus which promoted renewable energy had in fact "Buy American" provisions as well as the defense law passed in 2011.This means that a small part of the solar market is reserved for US Solar Panel Manufacturers who are being besieged by the low cost Chinese solar panel producers around the world.In fact Photovoltaic Module player Solarworld (which is German) is spearheading an effort to pass anti-dumping duties against the import of Chinese based panels.So which companies have "Made in USA" label.The surprising thing is that many of the solar companies are in fact foreign mostly European and Japanese though there are a native US companies as well.Note the most successful US Solar Companies First Solar and Sunpower (now Total) have always had the majority of their production outside the US in Asia.
July 7, 2011
Nuclear Energy has become a hugely contorversial topic after the Fukushima incident in Japan where a nuclear disaster took place because of the earthquake and tsunami.Both the pro and anti nuclear groups have come out with strident arguments for and against nuclear energy.However in some countries like Germany,Switzerland the anti nuclear sentiment has gained so much support that they have decided to permanently end nuclear electricity generation despite the high costs.Before this nuclear based power was gaining ascendancy leading many to call it a nuclear renaissance as countries like China and India made plans to increase their nuclear power plant capacities massively.But the nuclear accident has thrown a spanner in the works with huge protests being seen in India and China despite its authoritarianism also slowing down its nuclear expansion plans.
July 6, 2011
Nuclear Power like other forms of Energy cannot be defined by a single cost as nuclear power plants differ in their technology and sources of fuel.No two power plants can have the same cost of electricity production similarly nuclear energy plants cannot have the same kilowatt hour cost.However nuclear energy is known for its very low costs of 2-3c/kilowatt hour which can only be currently be met by coal.But nuclear energy cost is based on older nuclear power plants which have already been depreciated.This cost is also controversial as the costs of nuclear waste storage is generally not included.USA and Japan which are the largest nuclear power producers have not constructed permanent nuclear waste storage sites despite accumulating thousands of tons of nuclear waste.Also these days extra safety measures are being taken due to the Fukushima disaster which means that the costs of nuclear energy is going up.
July 6, 2011
Germany till a couple of years was the home of the biggest solar panel manufacturers in the world.This was driven mainly by the German Renewable Energy Law (EEG) which is the most successful renewable energy subsidy in the world.The German Solar Market has become the biggest in the world for the last 2-3 years and an estimated 25 GW of solar panels would have been installed in Germany.Capitalizing on a large domestic market a number of solar companies like Q-Cells,Solarworld,Solon and others became the biggest in the world.However the rise of the Chinese solar panel manufactures has made these companies shrink with some of them like Q-Cells facing questions of survival.The prices of the Chinese solar panels has become lower than the costs of the German made solar modules putting the economic viability of the German solar panels in question.Though the quality of the German made solar panels is higher and some of the best solar panels in the world are produced by the Germans,the price differential has meant that Chinese have captured almost 70% of the global solar panel market leaving little for the German solar panel companies.The Italian Feed in Tariff Law Contio Energia 3 has given somewhat of a boost to the German solar panel makers as it gives higher subsidies for solar projects,farms using European based modules.However German solar panel producers are in a secular decline with most of them shifting their factories to Asia.Q-Cells and Bosch have set up big solar manufacturing facilities in Malaysia while Solarworld is doing so in the US.Another Big European Solar Producer REC is closing its factories in Norway while expanding it in Singapore.
July 5, 2011
Nuclear Power Plants around the globe are being closed at a furious rate particularly in Europe.The Fukushima Disaster has caused a nuclear winter in the nuclear power plant industry.Even Nuclear Power Plant Equipment Leaders like Toshiba are changing their strategy to concentrate on Renewable Energy.Even new Nuclear Power Plants being built in India and China are facing massive opposition.New Nuclear Power Plants being built at Jaitapur and Tamil Nadu have met massive organized protests by local citizens throwing the future of nuclear power plants in jeopary.The Communist Government in China too is going slow on the biggest rollout of nuclear power plants in the world.High Cost Escalation and long project delays had already made building new Nuclear Power Plants in the Developed World almost impossible.Japan and Germany which are two of the largest nuclear countries have decided to shut down all nuclear power plants.Switzerland and Belgium too have decided to kill the nuclear power industry in their countries.In this light it becomes very important to examine the pros and cons of nuclear power plants.A cost benefit analysis of nuclear energy is crucial as new plants cost billions of dollars and can cause massive costs if things go wrong as was the case with Chernobyl and Three Mile Island Disasters in the 1980s.
July 3, 2011
olar Panel Manufacturers are present in most parts of the world with Korea,China,Taiwan,USA,Japan and Germany dominating.Solar Panels are of mainly 2 type – crystalline and thin film.Most of the solar panels produced today are of the crystalline type and are mostly used in residential rooftops.Thin film panels are mostly used in large ground solar power plants.Thin film solar panels are of lower efficiency and are lower priced as well.However falling costs of crystalline solar panels has led to their increasing dominance.
Solarworld AG
Germany till a couple of years was the home of the biggest solar panel manufacturers in the world.This was driven mainly by the German Renewable Energy Law (EEG) which is the most successful renewable energy subsidy in the world.The German Solar Market has become the biggest in the world for the last 2-3 years and an estimated 25 GW of solar panels would have been installed in Germany.Capitalizing on a large domestic market a number of solar companies like Q-Cells,Solarworld,Solon and others became the biggest in the world.
May 11, 2011
Nuclear Energy has been dealt a very heavy blow with Japan deciding to stop building any new nuclear plants from now onwards.PM Kan in a dramatic move announced that Japan's plan to build 14 new nuclear reactors which would increase the share of nuclear power to 50% from 30% has been canceled.The new energy plan of Japan will have more focus on renewable energy and energy efficiency.Note Germany had already shut down 7 of its old nuclear plants with immediate effect following the Fukushima disaster.These nuclear reactors have almost no chance of being started back as hundreds of thousands of German protested against nuclear energy and the Green Party won its first government in Germany.Italy and Switzerland too have put their nuclear power plants under review while other countries too are slowing down the approval process for new nuclear reactors.Nuclear Power in its current form seems to be dying in the developed world with other developed countries too facing opposition to nuclear plants.Note the effects of Nuclear Radiation are quite deadly and widespread even in lower doses or sieverts as was brought to the fore during the Fukushima disaster.It can lead to billions of dollars in lost economic activity.Already 3 major disasters have unfolded in the last 40 years in USA,Russia and Japan despite the safety touted by the Nuclear Industry.
April 10, 2011
Real Estate Prices in India have gone through the roof crossing the highs they made during the 2008 run-up.Note real estate in a lot of places globally are in a bubble right now - China,Australia,Canada .However the India Real Estate Bubble is seldom talked about as it has not reached the levels reached for example in China.However the property prices are becoming increasingly irrational.The causes of the Real Estate Prices increases in India are mostly due to the fact that Market Forces are not allowed to operate freely.The regulations,corruption,lack of transperncy,vested interests,cultural factors all have a role to play.Here are some of the reason that I think Real Estate Prices are totally irrational in India.Readers of this Blog are urged to add their views as this is a complex discussion and many people will say that Real Estate in India in not a Bubble but a result of High Population Density,Demand,India's Economic Growth .
March 28, 2011
Dangerous levels of radiation has been detected in the water around the reactors as the Japanese government says that a partial meltdown has occured.While there is no confirmation about cracks in the pressure and containment vessels around the reactors,the radiation in the water inside Unit 2 has tested at radiation levels some 100,000 times normal amounts.Workers also discovered radioactive water in the deep trenches outside three units, with the airborne radiation levels outside Unit 2 exceeding 1,000 millisieverts per hour _ more than four times the amount that the government considers safe for workers.TEPCO officials said Sunday that radiation in leaking water in Unit 2 was 10 million times above normal.TEPCO has been giving confusing figures for radiation making it all the more difficult in understanding the gravity of the nuclear crisis.Note this disaster is only second to Chernobyl in its scale of radiation destruction.Tokyo and other parts have reported intermittently about high radiation in water and air.A ship from Mitsui was recently turned back from a Chinese port because of high levels of radiation.
March 19, 2011
India's ambitious nuclear energy plan to add around 2G of Nuclear Plant Capacity is running into more and more hurdles each day.Nuclear Energy in India got a boost when India and USA signed a 123 agreeement which removed India's pariah position in the International Nuclear Community allowing transfer of nuclear equipment and material.However the Japanese Nuclear Disaster has thrown a spanner into the works.The Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant in Maharashtra was already seeing huge protests from local villages and political parties.The news of the Nuclear Radiation from the Fukushima plant has added fuel to the Nuclear Fire it seems.Note only have the Jaitapur protests become more stringent but another planned plant in Kovvadu village in the south eastern state of Andhra Pradesh has run into trouble.Villagers from all 150 villages took out a rally demanding withdrawal of the proposed nuclear power plant in the wake of ongoing nuclear crisis in Japan.I had earlier written that the Biggest Fallout Effect of the Japanese Nuclear Accident would be the Not in My Backyard (NIMBY) opposition of all existing and proposed Nuclear Energy Reactors globally and this is exactly what is happening.
March 19, 2011
German's Solar Energy Market is the biggest in the world by a fair margin.Germany installed almost 6 gigawatts of solar panels in 2010 taking the total installed capacity to almost 16 GW which is 40% of the world's total installed solar capacity.Note Germany's Photovoltaic Solar Electricity now forms almost 10-15% of the total electricity production in the country at peak time.Note Germany's solar industry got a renewed boost when 7 old nuclear plants were shutdown following Japan's Fukushima Nuclear Disaster recently.Previously Germany had decided to extend the operating life of its Nuclear Plants despite stiff opposition.Germany Solar Subsidy which is framed under the Renewable Energy EEG law has made Germany one of the world's leaders in Wind,Solar and Biomass Energy.Germany's Manufacturing Industry has benefited from the strong domestic market with many of the world's top solar panel companies located there.Solar equipment,inverters and cell companies are also present in large numbers.Recently Germany amended its Feed in Tariff Law to slowdown the exponential growth in solar panel installations.This is over and above the regular reduction in solar subsidies done each year.
March 16, 2011
Japan's Nuclear Crisis has taken a turn for the worse as US Energy Sectratary CHU saying that a Partial Meltdown has occured.Even IAEA has said that the situation has turned very serious with 4 of the reactors suffering from core damage and 3 of the reactors have their spent fuel rods exposed to the atmosphere as cooling systems have failed.While Japan has almost imposed a news blackout,the damaging news comes from the US administration which has said that the crisis exceeds that of the Three Mile Island already.Japan has doubled the number of workers as the crisis continues to escalate.Authorities battling the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant have doubled the number of workers on the site to 100.Helicopters have failed to cool the plant using water due to radioactive plumes and now the desperate Japanese are planning to use water cannons to spray the pools.
March 16, 2011
The situation at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant continued to be desperate as new fires and explosions rocked the nuclear plant.The utility which owns and operates the Nuclear Reactors Tepco said that the containment structure may have been damaged as smoke was seen from top of one of the reactors.70% of the Fuel Rods at Nuclear Reactor 1 and 33% at Reactor 2 have been exposed.This means that these fuel rods are not being cooled and may be melting leading to increased radiation poisoning hazards.New Fire broke out on the morning of 16th March at Reactor No.4 and containment chamber at Reactor 2 is damaged from Reactor 2.The problems at the Nuclear Plant seems to be increasing with no solution in sight.What is worse is that the 2 reactors No.5 and 6 which have been dormant all this time have all seen their temperature .increasing.Temperatures in the spent fuel rod cooling pools of the shuttered No. 5 and No. 6 reactors were rising as of 7 a.m. today to about 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit)
March 15, 2011
The Taiwanese Solar Industry has become the 2nd largest in the world following in the footsteps of China.Taiwanese Solar Industry has a longer history than the Chinese with Solar Cell Makers Motech and E-Ton establishing themselves globally way back in 2006.However the steep fall in solar panel prices following the Lehman crisis had led to losses for these companies as the Chinese companies surged ahead using their low cost manufacturing.The crisis also led to the emergence of newer Taiwanese companies like Gintech,Neo Solar which are growing at extremely fast rates.Note Taiwan is a hub of semiconductor manufacturing with leading companies like TSMC,AUO,UMC,HTC etc.Solar Industry uses many of the same technologies,raw materials and techniques common to semiconductor and Display Panels Production giving Taiwanese firms a natural advantage.Taiwan has been predominantly present in the crystalline Solar Cell part of the supply chain and lacks a big manufacturer of polysilicon ( though a facility has been started).The lack of vertical integration has also made the costs of the Taiwanese industry higher.The entry of large companies like AUO,TSMC has further increased the competition in the Taiwanese market.Note Taiwan's government has also promoted the use of solar energy in the country through the use of a Feed in Tariff program.
March 15, 2011
The backlash against the new and existing Nuclear Power Plants has started in different places around the world despite defiant expressions by Nuclear Plant Owners and Operators.While China and Italian utility Enel have said that they will go ahead with their billion dollar investment plans,Switzerland and Germany have put nuclear plant extensions on hold.Note Germany had extended the life of Nuclear Plants in the country by 10 years after extensive lobbying by the Nuclear Industry.This had led to huge protests from the Opposition Greens but the government had gone ahead in order to reduce Power Costs.However Merkel has been forced to eat humble pie and has said that a 3 month review will be done to check the safety of the Nuclear Reactors.Switzerland has also come out and put the plans for new Nuclear Reactors on Freeze.
March 15, 2011
The explosion and fire at the Japanese Nuclear Plant in NorthEast of Japan has led to the release of a small nuclear plume above the reactors.The southern winds have caused this radiation to spread in many of the prefectures in Japan and cesium and other radioactivity has been detected in the capital of Tokyo.Note Radiation does not affect the human body in small doses as radiation is present in our everyday lives at well.However the increase in radiation concentration can lead to severe health hazards and in extreme cases even death.It is almost impossible to escape radiation effects unless one has special nuclear,biological warfare protective equipment.Note Radiation in Japan is still at quite mild levels and seems unlikely to cause any major health hazard.Radiation will need to increase about 1000 times from the current level for the situation to become serious as of now
March 15, 2011
Japan's Nuclear Disaster took a turn for the worse as another Fire and Blast in the Nuclear Reactor led to Severe Radiation Leak.Japan's PM warned people within 20 miles of the Plant to evacuate and within 30 miles to remain indoors.There is a high probability of the Nuclear Containment Vessel may get Damaged as Temperatures kept rising with the failure of the Cooling Systems.Radiation Levels at the reactor reached 965.5 micro sievert per hour, later jumping to 8,217 micro sievert at 8:31 p.m. The level would be more than eight times the 1,000 micro sievert limit to which people can be exposed in one year without effect, according to the report.The Wind was blowing south which implies that one of the highest population density cities in the world - Tokyo might feel the affects of Radiation.Prime Minister Naoto Kan urged calm in a national address Tuesday.
November 13, 2010
However Solar Capacity in the Industry has increased rapidly particularly in Taiwan and China.Besides Semiconductor and LCD Heavyweights like AUO and TSMC have made huge investments into Solar Production.Korean Companies are too making a strong entry into the already crowded segment.Despite some capacity build in the wafer and module parts of the supply chain,Taiwan remains largely a cell producer.Compared to the integrated Chinese producers like Trina,Yingli,LDK and others,Taiwanese Solar Makers are vulnerable to sharp price cuts.They depend on European customers who are largely uncompetitive and would face huge pressures with the decline in the German market.Chinese producers have much lower costs due to their vertical integration which currenly most Taiwanese lack except Motech.Taiwanese Cell Capacity is set to increase manifold next year from the current 5 GW.Most of the Tier 2 Cell Producers would be running empty while even Tier 1 players will see a sharp decrease from this year.