Price War
September 13, 2012
MCX, NSE, BSE – Stock Exchange Wars A major price war has started between the stock exchanges in India with MCX sharply cutting the prices of […]
February 18, 2012
China continues to rule the global wind energy market generating around 40% of the global demand in 2011 with 18 GW of wind turbine installations. The dominance of the Chinese is underlined from the fact that they installed 3 times more wind energy than USA which is a bigger electricity market. China also dominates in supplying wind equipment to the global market. Its companies like Sinovel, Mingyang and Goldwind are starting to win marketshare in overseas market .These companies which are trying to grow outside to escape the glut in the domestic market have won some major overseas orders.
February 14, 2012
The US Import Sanctions on Chinese Solar Panel imports will become a non-event soon as Chinese solar panel producers are easily short circuting the sanctions. They are using a number of strategies to protect themselves from the upcoming duties and anti-dumping measures. This shows that globalization makes the use of specific duties on a nation quite useless and only benefits the lawyers . The reason is that private companies are much more faster and nimble compared to the slow moving bureaucrats .
January 16, 2012
Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of
a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR
b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms
January 14, 2012
How Chinese Module Makers will use the Taiwanese Cell Producers to Circumvent US Anti-Dumping Policy
The USA and China are locked in a bitter tiff over solar panel imports from China. Note Solarworld filed a petition with the ITC which in all probability will put an anti-dumping duty on Chinese solar modules. Other countries whose solar panel producers have been swamped by the super cheap Solar Panel imports too are thinking of special custom duties. However the big Tier 1 Chinese solar panel makers are not sitting idle . They have already come out with strategies to circumvent the US Solar Panel Duties if they are imposed .
January 9, 2012
Solar Trade Wars are becoming the norm in the globe these days with the major one between USA and China.The instigator is the German solar company Solarworld which helped started the ITC Case in the USA.India too is thinking of putting some kind of import duty to protect its domestic solar panel producers which are dropping like flies.Chinese solar panel producers have swamped the world with super cheap solar modules.Though a part of their low prices can be explained by competitive advantage, another part is due to the labor,capital subsidy given by the Chinese government.It would not take a rocket scientist to say that some of the biggest Chinese solar companies are insolvent and would be dead within a month without Chinese state loans.
January 7, 2012
The German Solar Energy Market is biggest in the world and has installed the largest number of solar panels for the last few years.2012 promises to be no different with Germany again set to the biggest solar market for solar panel manufacturers though Italy would give good competition.The German Solar Subsidy program has been the best in the world unlike the start and stop feed in tariff programs of Spain,Czech,UK,Australia and other places.A stable step in cut of feed in tariffs has helped solar energy prices coming down by more than 50% in the last few years though demand has only increased.
January 5, 2012
Chinese Wind Turbine Companies have unleashed a global price war in which Western producers are unable to compete.While Solar Panel producers in the West are dying like flies,Western WTG Makers too face survival questions.Vestas which is the world's biggest turbine company in terms of installations announced another revenue shortfall for the nth time in the last couple of years.The company has already restructed ,reduce workforce etc etc.However the price competition from the Asian companies is too severe and too sustained for Vestas to surive too long.Like First Solar,Vestas seems a likely candidate for takeover by one of the big industrial conglomerates.It has become too tough for a renewable energy company in the West to survive on their own.
January 3, 2012
Chinese Solar Panel Producers have become a famous target of an anti dumping petition brought on by Solarworld and other companies.Though US Solar Installers have opposed the move as it will increase the solar panel prices in US,ITC has gone ahead with the investigation.Though the charges of subsidies and efficiency can be debated,the fact remains that US Solar Panel Producers can't compete with Chinese Solar Panles.Massive industrial overcapacity in China has made the prices of products very cheap and made it difficult for Western producers to compete in most areas such as Chemical,Renewable Energy,Textiles etc.The Chinese win because of their low interest rates,cheap labor,free land,massive government support.
July 15, 2011
Phono Solar is a JV between Phono Technologies Switzerland and Sumec Group of China.Phono’s parent company SUMEC Group has been in the PV industry from early 2004. Sumec and Sinomach family of companies claim to have $15 billion in revenues each year.SUMEC Group Corporation (SUMEC), founded in 1978, is a key member of China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH).SUMEC’s core business consists of shipbuilding and project contracting of complete equipment and engineering; the R&D, manufacturing and export of machinery and electric products including power tools, garden tools, power machinery
Phono Solar’s three production facilities will produce more than 500MW of PV Modules in 2011.The products are widely used in many fields such as power station, telecom, transportation, lightening, broadcasting, civil defense, marine etc.The company's products are made in China and marketed by the Swiss company under the Phono Solar Brand.The Company also sells micro wind turbines which are used in small residential installations.
July 8, 2011
Renewable Energy Corporation (REC ) is one of the biggest European solar companies and is completely vertically integrated.What that means is that REC makes all the components in the crystalline silicon supply chain from polysilicon to wafers to cells and modules.REC was earlier primarily a polysilicon and wafer producer but it is not becoming more active in the solar panels area.REC Silicon and REC Wafer are among the world's largest producers of polysilicon and wafers, respectively, for solar applications.This is the reason that REC solar panels are in general cheaper than other European and Japanese solar panels like Solarworld,Sharp,Kyocera and others.Due to the high cost of production,REC has shut down its factories in Norway and is mainly producing solar cells and solar modules at its new solar complex in Singapore.REC Solar has production facilities around the globe but it is concentrating its production in Asian factories.Despite stiff competition from Chinese solar panels which has led to bankruptcy of numerous solar companies in the West,REC is well capitalized and should be one of the survivors of the current solar price wars.As such the warranty on the solar panels from REC should hold good for the 25 years.
July 8, 2011
JA Solar is the biggest solar cell producer in the world with more than 2000 MW of silicon cell capacity.The company has one of the lowest costs in processing of solar cells from solar wafers.The company is primarily a supplier of solar cells to most solar panel producers in Europe and Asia.However the sharp fall in solar panel prices in 2011 has resulted in most of the European companies shutting shop which has meant that JA Solar has faced a large loss in customer orders for its solar cells.Unlike its peer Trina and Yingli Solar,JA Solar does not have a good brand name or distribution of solar panels.It is more of a upstream supplier of solar products to solar comapnies rather than a end distributor of solar panels.JA Solar has diversified into making solar panels of its own and in partnership with other companies.Having a strong presence in the end market has become essential to survive in the cutthroad solar market.
July 7, 2011
Solar Panels have recently become a point of trade friction between USA and China as a massive oversupply of solar panels has resulted in the prices of solar panels dropping by almost 50% in one year.This has caused great distress amongst solar panel manufacturers in the USA particularly the high cost ones which have been forced to close.Falling prices of solar panels are great news for customers but bad news for the producers of these solar panels.Now US and European companies are selling their solar panels advertising their "made in USA" credentials.This is to help them sell the solar panels which cost more but according to them have better quality and appeal to the patriotism of the Americans.Note the 2009 Economic Stimulus which promoted renewable energy had in fact "Buy American" provisions as well as the defense law passed in 2011.This means that a small part of the solar market is reserved for US Solar Panel Manufacturers who are being besieged by the low cost Chinese solar panel producers around the world.In fact Photovoltaic Module player Solarworld (which is German) is spearheading an effort to pass anti-dumping duties against the import of Chinese based panels.So which companies have "Made in USA" label.The surprising thing is that many of the solar companies are in fact foreign mostly European and Japanese though there are a native US companies as well.Note the most successful US Solar Companies First Solar and Sunpower (now Total) have always had the majority of their production outside the US in Asia.
July 6, 2011
Germany till a couple of years was the home of the biggest solar panel manufacturers in the world.This was driven mainly by the German Renewable Energy Law (EEG) which is the most successful renewable energy subsidy in the world.The German Solar Market has become the biggest in the world for the last 2-3 years and an estimated 25 GW of solar panels would have been installed in Germany.Capitalizing on a large domestic market a number of solar companies like Q-Cells,Solarworld,Solon and others became the biggest in the world.However the rise of the Chinese solar panel manufactures has made these companies shrink with some of them like Q-Cells facing questions of survival.The prices of the Chinese solar panels has become lower than the costs of the German made solar modules putting the economic viability of the German solar panels in question.Though the quality of the German made solar panels is higher and some of the best solar panels in the world are produced by the Germans,the price differential has meant that Chinese have captured almost 70% of the global solar panel market leaving little for the German solar panel companies.The Italian Feed in Tariff Law Contio Energia 3 has given somewhat of a boost to the German solar panel makers as it gives higher subsidies for solar projects,farms using European based modules.However German solar panel producers are in a secular decline with most of them shifting their factories to Asia.Q-Cells and Bosch have set up big solar manufacturing facilities in Malaysia while Solarworld is doing so in the US.Another Big European Solar Producer REC is closing its factories in Norway while expanding it in Singapore.
July 5, 2011
PWND is a good Wind ETF with strong weighting on China and Wind Utilities.Note the center of Wind Energy Manufacturing and Development has shifted towards China from the Western world with almost 50% of the world's wind power installations happening in China in 2010.8 out of the top 15 Wind Turbine Manufacturers are now from China which makes it very important that Top Wind Energy Investments have a substantial weighting on Chinese Wind stocks.PWND has a good combination of Wind Utilties and Wind Turbine Stocks from China which gives exposure to the biggest wind power market in the world.It has also got a decent investment in top Wind Utilities in Europe which still have the biggest wind farm portfolios in the world.With 30 stocks,it has not over diversified as well with good concentrated holdings in top wind power stocks.While 0.75% expense ratio is slightly high it is not a deal killer.The 2010 and 2011 performance of Wind Energy has been dismal to say the least with the Copenhagen Global Climate Change Meeting going to the dogs in 2009 end.However there remains little alternative to Wind Energy as Coal,Gas and Oil get increasingly scarce,costly and are continuing to pollute the environment.With only $19 million left as the corpus PWND may not continue long,however if it does it might be the best time to invest in a good WInd Energy ETF when the sector is so unloved.PWND is the best Wind Energy ETF and probably the best wind stock investment out there
July 3, 2011
olar Panel Manufacturers are present in most parts of the world with Korea,China,Taiwan,USA,Japan and Germany dominating.Solar Panels are of mainly 2 type – crystalline and thin film.Most of the solar panels produced today are of the crystalline type and are mostly used in residential rooftops.Thin film panels are mostly used in large ground solar power plants.Thin film solar panels are of lower efficiency and are lower priced as well.However falling costs of crystalline solar panels has led to their increasing dominance.
Solarworld AG
Germany till a couple of years was the home of the biggest solar panel manufacturers in the world.This was driven mainly by the German Renewable Energy Law (EEG) which is the most successful renewable energy subsidy in the world.The German Solar Market has become the biggest in the world for the last 2-3 years and an estimated 25 GW of solar panels would have been installed in Germany.Capitalizing on a large domestic market a number of solar companies like Q-Cells,Solarworld,Solon and others became the biggest in the world.
July 2, 2011
Vestas has been getting bigger orders and has been streamlining operations,however its stock price has continued to go down as investors see bleak future prospects wit hthe entry of Korean shipbuilders into the industry.Other heavyweights like Gamesa and Suzlon too have faced massive losses as margins have evaporated in the face of declining topline and prices.But now Vestas has got a lifeline from the renewable energy subsidiary of the French giant utility EDF.The order from is for 2000 MW of Wind Turbines over the next few years.While pricing was not disclosed,it would be certainly be at a discount to the normally premium prices charged by Vestas.This given order visibility to Vestas and provides price safety for EDF.The next frontier for Wind Energy Companies is going to be Offshore Wind and Siemens has stolen a march.Vestas is not going down without a fight recently introducing a 7 MW wind turbine for this segment
June 23, 2011
China installed almost 50% of the world's wind power energy capacity in 2010 as its market exploded from almost nothing to around 18 GW.China's massive energy needs and its growing emissions and pollution problems have led to strong tailwinds for the wind industry.This has also led to the growth of a massive domestic industry which has led to 8 Chinese Wind Turbine Producers among the top 15 global WTG suppliers.Now China is looking to make major inroads into offshore wind energy which is dominated by Europe.China has the only offshore wind farm in Asia off Shanghai and is looking to rapidly ramp up as its energy needs keep growing.With more than 70% of China's electricity coming from dirty coal and the country already consuming 3 billion tons of coal a year,energy sources have to be diversified urgently.
May 12, 2011
The Chinese Wind Industry has around 80 wind turbine companies many of which are quite small and don't' have the money and expertise to compete in the international markets.Though the Chinese dominate the top global wind turbine companies list with 7 of the top 15 WTG companies Chinese,many are not competitive.Sinovel which has become the largest wind turbine company has recently canceled order for Electrical Control Systems from American Superconductor citing high inventory.Other Wind Turbine companies are in even more trouble as the industry suffers from huge overcapacity.The Chinese Wind Capacity has grown at 100% CAGR to reach 18 GW in 2010.However this strong growth has led to saturation of the wind market and price wars are being seen in China.Exports to other countries have been difficult as the cost of transportation of Wind Turbines is high.Besides Chinese Wind Companies don't possess strong technology and quality unlike established ones like Vestas,Gamesa,GE and Siemens.Though Dongfang and Shanghai Electric have managed to win some Turbine Orders in India,the export percentage is negligible.Wind Power in India too has reached a stable growth level and a number of wind companes in India are fighting for marketshare as well.
April 11, 2011
Wind Energy Companies in India were already facing trouble when China's largest power equipment producer and the 3rd largest Wind Turbine Manufacture Dongfang Electric won major Wind Contracts from Power Producers.Note Chinese companies have become the low cost leaders in the Wind Equipment Industry and sell much below Western competitors.Leading WTG companies from the West like Vestas and Gamesa are reeling from Chinese competition and slowdown in Western markets.Suzlon too has been affected as Korean shipbuilders and Chinese wind producers have become major players.India is the world's fifth biggest wind energy market and is expected to continue to build 1.5-2 GW wind power plants per year for the next decade.
April 1, 2011
One of the major reasons for the Chinese success in the export markets in Asia and Africa have been the massive vendor financing done by state owned Chinese banks.Large orders have been won by Chinese companies like Dongfang Electric and Huawei as Chinese Banks financed the multi billion Indian orders by cheap loans.Note in large project finance cases cheap loans can make a huge difference in project returns and can be the clincher in choosing the equipment supplier.The US Exim Bank too seems to be pulling up its socks in helping American companies win large equipment orders through vendor financing.Note the US Exim Bank had got involved in a huge controversy when it agreed to finance a utlra mega power plant based on coal energy by Reliance Power in India.Despite protests by environmentalists,Exim Bank had gone ahead in financing as it would lead to jobs in America.Note USA is one of the biggest laggards in climate change and the government does not really care much out there.
March 19, 2011
Chinese companies have risen from virtually nothing 5 years ago to become Top 5 Global Wind Energy Players.The Chinese companies have seen massive growth on the back of a strongly growing domestic market.China which now accounts of 50% of the world Wind Turbine market in 2010 is expected to see continued strong growth with the Chinese government setting a target of more than 100 GW by 2015.The growth of the Chinese Turbine Producers has been mainly due to the domestic content requirement set by the Chinese government earlier.The government owned utilities also favor the domestic companies leading to their astounding growth.
March 19, 2011
German's Solar Energy Market is the biggest in the world by a fair margin.Germany installed almost 6 gigawatts of solar panels in 2010 taking the total installed capacity to almost 16 GW which is 40% of the world's total installed solar capacity.Note Germany's Photovoltaic Solar Electricity now forms almost 10-15% of the total electricity production in the country at peak time.Note Germany's solar industry got a renewed boost when 7 old nuclear plants were shutdown following Japan's Fukushima Nuclear Disaster recently.Previously Germany had decided to extend the operating life of its Nuclear Plants despite stiff opposition.Germany Solar Subsidy which is framed under the Renewable Energy EEG law has made Germany one of the world's leaders in Wind,Solar and Biomass Energy.Germany's Manufacturing Industry has benefited from the strong domestic market with many of the world's top solar panel companies located there.Solar equipment,inverters and cell companies are also present in large numbers.Recently Germany amended its Feed in Tariff Law to slowdown the exponential growth in solar panel installations.This is over and above the regular reduction in solar subsidies done each year.
March 15, 2011
The Taiwanese Solar Industry has become the 2nd largest in the world following in the footsteps of China.Taiwanese Solar Industry has a longer history than the Chinese with Solar Cell Makers Motech and E-Ton establishing themselves globally way back in 2006.However the steep fall in solar panel prices following the Lehman crisis had led to losses for these companies as the Chinese companies surged ahead using their low cost manufacturing.The crisis also led to the emergence of newer Taiwanese companies like Gintech,Neo Solar which are growing at extremely fast rates.Note Taiwan is a hub of semiconductor manufacturing with leading companies like TSMC,AUO,UMC,HTC etc.Solar Industry uses many of the same technologies,raw materials and techniques common to semiconductor and Display Panels Production giving Taiwanese firms a natural advantage.Taiwan has been predominantly present in the crystalline Solar Cell part of the supply chain and lacks a big manufacturer of polysilicon ( though a facility has been started).The lack of vertical integration has also made the costs of the Taiwanese industry higher.The entry of large companies like AUO,TSMC has further increased the competition in the Taiwanese market.Note Taiwan's government has also promoted the use of solar energy in the country through the use of a Feed in Tariff program.