Interest Rates
December 10, 2012
In the crucial financial time, where the cash flow in the economy seems to decrease and poor performance of the stock market and the Indian economy […]
November 27, 2012
Cash Reserve Ratio Of late we have been hearing about the ongoing debate in the Indian economy pertaining to CRR. One of the best suggestions recently […]
October 24, 2012
Financial Repression What does Financial Repression Mean? Financial Repression means the process through which Governments and Financial Institutions repress savers from receiving a reasonable return on […]
June 28, 2012
Indian Solar Energy has received wide acclaim in national and international media for being a great success. However compared to other countries, the claims seem quite […]
June 25, 2012
I have always said that investing in Indian mutual funds is a dumb idea given the lack of regulation , under performance, high fees and front […]
January 6, 2012
The Indian Private Equity Industry was on a high for the past few years with a new PE fund being opened every few months by PE veterans.The global interest in the Indian economy had been very high given the growth potential.There was a lot of money waiting on the sidelines to take part in the Indian growth story.Most of the PE performance till then had been very good given a rising tide lifts all boats.However the recent year has not been that good.More than one PE manager has had to shutdown given the lack of funding while others have found it difficult to exit given the bad stock market conditions.
January 2, 2012
2011 has been a bad year for emerging markets with high inflation,slowing growth and rising interest rates.Most of the problems are a consequence of the 2008 Financial Crisis when emerging countries increasing fiscal spending and reduced interest rates to reduce the affect of the Lehman crisis.Now the Bill is coming due with slowing growth and higher inflation.Most of the BRIC countries have heavily increased interest rates in 2011 to slow inflation as their poor population can ill afford the damaging effect of inflation.
Brazil has reduced its 2012 Budget by $32 billion to control inflation drawing howls of protest from politicians who always want to spend more as if money grows on trees.The country has reined in spending in both 2011 and 2012 to reduce the fiscal deficit and spend more money on productive sectors like infra.
July 10, 2011
Mutual Fund Companies have seen a steady growth driven by the growing financial assets being generated by the fast growing Indian economy.But the Mutual Fund Industry like other sectors such as Real Estate and Telecom too has come under the spotlight for some illegal activity.While you can't call the industry corrupt because of some fraudulent activities it does raise questions on the industry ethics.Top Mutual Funds in the country like HDFC and L&T have been fined by the stock market regulator SEBI for front running.For those who don't understand what the term means,front running is an illegal activity whereby a fund manager or fund official makes personal gains by making trades on his account before doing a trade for the fund.This causes losses for the fund investor and is akin to stealing.However like other corrupt practices in the stock market industry,SEBI lets them go with small fines which don't deter more such frauds.It is also not unknown that some fund managers connive with company promoters and market operators to rig and do circular trading.Not only is this a problem,another massive problem with the industry is its underperformance as compared to the benchmarks.While earlier mutual funds were known to outperform the benchmarks like the Nifty,a recent Crisil study has dispelled this myth.Given these disadvantages of mutual fund ,it is time to invest in Indian ETFs though not a lot of variety exists in the Indian stock market yet.
July 7, 2011
Mutual Funds are one of the most common ways to invest in equity and debt and a large mutual fund industry is involved in this endeavour.There are large number of high paying professions in Wall Street which depend on the mutual fund industry which include stock brokers and sales persons.However the amount of cost of mutual funds is not proportionate to the gains they give out.This is the reason that Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and passive funds which have lower expense ratios and expenses are gaining billions of dollars in money.The reason is that a large number of mutual funds regularly underperform the benchmarks.This has caused massive heartburn amongst investors who have to pay large amounts of fees for the services of the professional fund managers.This has been the trend historically and found amongst numerous countries as well.Besides the costs of the sales and distribution of these mutual fund with their hefty commissions also falls on the investor ultimately.However the prevailing custom of investing in mutual funds is not easily broken despite the underperformance of the mutual fund industry.Most of the advantages of mutual fund can now be found in ETFs which have much lower costs.They also remove the disadvantages such as the possibility of a bad mutual fund manager.
May 31, 2011
Indian equity investing through offshore funds might not be the best idea as these funds have underperformed the benchmarks by putting too much weight on infrastructure and capital goods sector.Note lured by the $500 billion investment target for Indian infrastructure,an Indian infra ETF INXX was also launched at a ludicrous valuation.However the endemic corruption in India with scams related to major infrastructure sectors like Real Estate,Telecom popping up everyday,its not a surprise that the stocks have tanked.Note investing in the Indian stocks markets is hazardous with issues like insider trading,pump and dump schemes quite rampant.The risks of corruption are huge and even top asset managers like Goldman,GMO have become victims of fly by night operators just like a simple retail investor.
May 3, 2011
India's Central Bank has been steadily raising interest rates in 25 bps increments as inflation has raged at more the double digits for more than a year.However it has not stopped the inflation from coming down as high commodity prices keep the inflation at 9% which is much more than the target of 3-5% inflation rates.With Bernake money printing fueling oil and food prices globally,it looked unlikely that RBI's timid measure would bring the inflation down anytime soon.So this time the Central Bank has thrown the kitchen sink at the problem raising the interest rates by 50 bps to 7.25% which is much more than what the market was expecting.The Central Bank also raised the interest rate on savings rate from 3.25% to 4% which was not expected by anyone.Note the low interest rate on savings bank had been a huge money spinner to top Indian banks which have large deposits of this low interest rate savings deposits.
April 10, 2011
India's Income Disparity is not growing among the rich and the very poor but also widening between its super rich and middle classes.Note India's Middle Class is not as big as a percentage of the population in the developed countries and its per capita income is also much lower.However India's Middle Class is growing as the economy grows by 8-9% and despite the lopsided economic growth some of the massive wealth that is being generated does trickle to the middle class.However those gains are being eroded by a Persistent Double Digit inflation which has entrenched itself.Despite periodic interest rate increases,India's Central Bank has miserably failed on the Inflation Front in the last couple of years.First it was having too loose a policy to overcome the effects of the global eco crisis in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse.Now it was too slow to raise rates as commodity price increased dramatically.
February 10, 2011
India's Infrastructure Sector which was considered the ideal play on India's fast growing GDP and its huge infrastructure requirements long commanded nosebleed valuations.While realty stocks which are closely related to the infra ones had long collapsed after the GFC in 2008 ,the infrastructure stocks had retained their preeminence in the stock market rally.However end 2010 and 2011 has seen a vicious change in their fortunes.Stocks like IVRCL,IRB,Punj Lloyd,L&T,Gammon etc have seen their stock prices nosedive.The stocks have corrected far more than the broader market which has itself fallen more than 15% in 2011. The problems related to the infrastructure stocks are varied and they have converged for investors to totally lose confidence in this sector something akin to the realty sector.The list of the problems are
November 20, 2010
Deflating Developed Countries are fueling Inflation in Developing Ones with ultra low interest rates.QE2 has been heavily criticized around the world due to the dangers of it creating asset bubbles in emerging markets as yield hungry investors look for growth at any price.With hundred of billions flooding emerging debt and equity markets,the situation has become volatile for a lot of countries.Brazil has already seen its currency skyrocket in the last 2-3 years due to the huge spread between its bond yields and the US interest rates.With carry investors able to make around 10%,Brazil remains a favorite market for the inflow of dollars.Other countries like Thailand,Malaysia,Indonesia have seen their stock markets rallying to all time highs as well.Many of these countries have already imposed capital controls earlier.Now they are increasing further,as monetary authorities rush to close the gates.
October 22, 2010
Microfinance has become one of the hottest growth sectors in India attracting Private Equity Companies eager to take advantage of India's Growth Story.A Number of For-Profit Microfinance Companies have grown exponentially in recent times with funds raised from Foreign PE Firms.The Business Model of these Financial Intermediaries is highly profitable with 25-40% Interest Rates being charged from India's Poor Population who don't have access to credit facilities.Borrowing from Banks at 10-12% and lending at 25% gives a huge spread which more than covers the cost of operations in dealing with a huge number of very small borrowers in far flung areas.The recent IPO of SKS Microfinance was a huge success instantly makings it promoters instant millionaires.The stock which was expensively valued nonetheless managed to climb by almost 40% in the last 2 months.It brought into focus the whether making such huge profits through essentialy usury from the poor was ethical or not.
October 12, 2010
The US Federal Reserve is hell bent on preventing deflation through whatever means possible.It has raised the prospect of 2008 when Commodities all over the world raced to new highs due to cuts in Interest Rates.2010 has already seen its first food riots in Africa and 2011 should more of the same.Every Commodity be it Gold,Silver,Coffee,Sugar,Rice,Wheat is jumping higher as the common denominator Dollar gets Debased by US Policies.While the stupidness of the Monetary Easing is a big exhaustive issue in itself,the prospect of higher commodity prices is a huge danger.It is already fueling dangerous equity bubbles in the emerging markets of Asia.Currency Wars are already starting to happen on a small scale as Crazy Monetary Policies take hold in the US.Food Prices are a very major problem in poor countries unlike developed countries where food forms only a small part of the daily expenditure.With Food forming 50-80% of the expenditure of poor citizens,a 50% increase in Prices immediately leads to hunger and starvation.However don't think the US Fed concerns itself with such trivial issues.
July 3, 2010
India’s Rising Inflation crosses into Double Digit territory India has seen inflation increase at a rapid pace in the recent months with the Wholesale Price Infalation […]