Solar Power in Assam

The Assam Government has agreed to provide 800 bigha of land to set up a solar power facility, which is expected to generate 40 MW of solar power. This decision comes in accordance with the solar drive in India. The Prime Minister has promoted the usage of solar and wind power in our country profusely and has set ambitious targets for India. Assam has mostly been in news in India for the violence in the state. It will be nice for the state to set up a new solar plant, which will help in the development of the state. It will provide power and employment and thus tread on the path of development.

However, it looks like there has been some problem for the state to install its long awaited hydro-electric project. Already Rs 6,000 crore has been spent for this 2000 MW plant, but the issue hasn’t been resolved. However with the pro-solar government at the center, I hope the solar plant should go smoothly. It remains to be seen whether Assam will emerge as one of the states helping India achieve its solar target, or remain a laggard. It is important for developing economies like India to focus more on the green renewable energy sources more, for its power requirements.

The US Government also supports India in its mission to be a Solar power country, with the US President promising funds to promote solar in India. US is also exploring projects for a $1 billion clean energy financing, for companies willing to ship equipment to India. The Asia Pacific market is expected to be worth $37.8 billion by 2020; wherein China, Japan and India will be the principal countries promoting solar energy. With the solar energy reaching grid parity in different parts of the world, it is getting more affordable by the day. It will not only reduce the country’s dependence on the dirty coal, but also make the world more greener and cleaner, which is also the need of the hour.

“Protection of environment is an article of faith for our Prime Minister Narendra Modi. So a lot of importance is being given to renewable energy. Beside thermal and hydro-power, renewable energy sector will have a major contribution in achieving the target of power for all,” Goyal said.

TOI

India presented its budget for 2015-16 in which a number of proposals for propping up the infrastructure sector in India were announced, such as setting up a Rs.20000 crore fund to invest in infra equity. There were also plans to set up 5 more giant thermal power plants with a capacity of 20000 MW. However, there was no concrete plan on how the government would achieve its target of 100 GW of solar energy by 2022. There are huge hurdles for the government to reach its 100 GW target.

1) The problem of finance which is both costly and difficult to get

2) The problem of integrating high amounts of intermittent renewable energy into India’s creaking power grid

3) The structural issues on how India’s bankrupt distribution utilities will be able to pay the solar power electricity prices

The increase in coal cess from Rs.100/ton to Rs.200/ton will go to the national clean energy fund, however how it will be used is not known. There were also no announcements of increasing the fund flow to the solar energy sector, either through a sovereign fund or through making solar energy a priority sector. Note solar energy requires large amounts of debt to fund its capex-heavy nature and Indian banks are facing a huge problem of ever rising NPAs on their balance sheet. The fossil fuel power sector has been one of the major contributing factors to the NPAs, as many gas and coal power plants are lying idle due to a lack of fuel. Even the running ones face issues, as the bleeding distribution utilities do not have money to purchase the power which is generated.

Solar energy received a boost during the Re-invest 2015 in which a lot of domestic and foreign companies announced grandiose plans of installing 10 GW, 15 GW and even 20 GW of solar power plants in the country. But all of these plans are not worth the paper they are written on. Many of these companies such as Essel are small timers, with no money or expertise. Even the larger ones won’t go ahead given the issues in land, power infrastructure, debt financing, issues in hedging of foreign loans etc.

It is hoped that during the remaining course of the year, the government will announce solutions to the myriad implementation hurdles faced by the solar industry.

Japan to slow down on Solar

Japan could be the biggest risk to solar demand in 2015, as the country is facing grid connection issues and changes in FIT. Japan has seen a massive boom in solar demand in 2013 and 2014 with generous FIT leading to a huge ramp up in solar capacity installations in the country, as developers managed to earn high returns on their solar investments. Japan is going to reduce FITs in 2015 to reduce the returns which might affect the pace of demand increase. There is also the problem of grid connection of large PV power plants. A number of utilities are going slow in approving large solar farms and 5 out of 10 utilities have announced temporary stoppage of new permits to connect large PV farms.

Read more about Japanese Solar Industry here.

While the Japanese government has intervened to allow large scale solar farms to continue development, many developers are becoming uneasy. I think that the Japanese government should reduce FITs and use the subsidy money to strengthen the power grid infrastructure. This will also help the developers as it will reduce risk for them. The country should create a long term plan for solar energy development in a sustainable manner, instead of a boom and bust scenario like Spain or Italy. Taiwanese solar players are already predicting a slowdown in Japanese demand from 9 GW in 2014 to 7 GW in 2015 and 5.8 GW in 2016. It should be remembered that Japanese electricity capacity is 1/8th the total capacity of China and Japan. This means that Japan will saturate with solar much faster like Germany. While China and USA can continue to grow and show 10 GW plus solar energy demand annually for many years, it will not be possible for Japan to do so.

Japan I think is the biggest risk now as any sharp FIT reduction or stoppage in grid connections could lead to panel oversupply and price cuts. USA should grow rapidly and should meet its 6 GW target by 2014, given that USA still has a very low share of solar energy and the returns are not at any risk. China too should easily manage 10+ GW, given it is a growing economy and needs to replace hundreds of gigawatts of dirty thermal coal power.

DigiTimes

As the Japan government is set to reduce feed-in tariffs for PV power-generating stations with installation capacities of at least 10KWp from JYP32 (US$0.27)/kWh currently to JPY25-29/kWh in 2015, the total installation capacity for newly established PV systems and power-generating stations in Japan is likely to decrease from 9.0GWp in 2014 to 7.0GWp in 2015 and 5.8GWp in 2016, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

India’s Solar Fund

India has set up a very ambitious solar target of 100 GW by 2022 which would require at least $125 billion in investment. Given that the country is capital starved, many analysts have dismissed this target and said that India would be lucky to meet even half of that target. The main hurdle faced by solar developers in the country is the high cost of capital. India has a number of state owned power finance companies such as REC and PFC, which are involved in lending to large power projects mainly thermal. The thermal capacity accounts for more than 60% of India’s power generating capacity.

IREDA which is a dedicated funding agency owned by the government has funded almost 60% of India’s wind power capacity. IREDA has large lines of credit from international financial developmental institutions like KFW, JICA etc. IREDA is already gearing up to shift its focus from wind energy to solar energy and looking to raise billion dollar funds. It recently raised its paid up share capital base. The government also wants some of the largest banks, both private and public sector to set up dedicated green funds. It could ask ICICI and SBI to do the needful. While most of the large banks have now got some experience in renewable energy funding, they have not been too enthusiastic as there is little security about the paying ability of discoms and the newness of solar technology. Also unlike conventional power loans renewable energy loans are long term approximately 10-15 years, given the cash flows for solar plants are distributed over 25 years with all of the costs going upfront.

India is already getting around $1 billion a year as cess from extracting coal, which goes into the National Clean Energy Fund. Like most of the other things, this fund was also misused by the last government to cover up its budget deficit, rather than fund renewable energy and climate mitigation efforts. The solar rooftop subsidy and the subsidy for solar pumps did not get disbursed on times, despite the large funds available with NCEF. Hopefully this government can not only push the macro things, but also decrease the inefficiency and lethargy from the normal government processes.

Large Indian state owned energy companies such as OIL India, IOCL etc. have periodically made small forays into building very small solar energy plants, but they have done nothing much except generate sound bites. India’s largest capital goods company BHEL had made grandiose plans to build a large megawatt solar wafer, cell and panel manufacturing plant in the then heavy industry minister Praful Patel’s constituency, but nothing came out of that as well. All major PSUs like SJVN, NHPC, NTPC etc. have built small 5-10 MW solar plants without doing anything substantial. Most of these PSUs are extremely cash rich, but like the government companies are passive and inefficient except for one or two. SJVN and NHPC are focused on building hydro power capacities, but have been extremely slow in building those capacities. They have been mostly content in milking their existing facilities. NPTC is one of the better run companies in India with over 40 GW of power generating assets mostly thermal based.

The new Modi government wants all these companies to start building out large solar capacities. This will not only go towards meeting the ambitious 100 GW target for 2022 set out by the PM, but also help in meeting their RPO obligations. Note, as per India’s National Plan on Climate Change, 15% of the energy should come from renewable energy sources by 2020. NPTC going by its current target should have at least 15-20 GW of renewable energy power capacity by 2022. NPTC is come out with a 1 GW tender for building solar farms in Andhra Pradesh and will soon build out 3 GW of solar capacity.

Read more about Advantages of Renewable Energy.

Besides power generating companies, the PMO is also pushing the large state owned oil refiners such as IOCL, OIL, HPCL, BPCL etc. to build solar power capacities. These companies can be easily be pushed into building large solar capacities given their huge revenue and human resource bases.

The world’s largest coal mining company Coal India is also a good candidate to build out large solar farms, given that the company has a giant cash hoard and generates large cash flows each year. In fact Coal India has already tied up with SECI looking to build out 1000 MW of solar capacity in the near future.

45 GW Solar Demand in 2014

The total global solar demand is expected to come at 45 GW, which is roughly the middle point of the 40-50 GW expected at the end of 2013. China is expected to come lower, as the installation has been only 3.79 GW by October 2014. The country can at best be expected to install only 6-7 GW in the final quarter of the year. There has been trading on solar permits in China which has now been prohibited. People who have solar permits are selling them for around 5-10c/watt, which is almost 5-10% of the total installation cost. The government is cracking down on this practice; which means that investors who are willing to put up the solar power plants do not have permits, while those who have permits do not have the money to put up these power plants.

Japan may surpass China as the biggest demand driver of solar demand this year, as the country can be expected to install 10-12 GW this year. This will be the peak year for Japan in my view, as the country slows down installation next year by driving down the prices of solar FITs. EnergyTrend has predicted that next year demand may be 50 GW with again the Big Three – Japan, China and USA making up the lion’s share of installations. Earlier I had written that 2015 demand may be lower than 2014, but with China slowing down it means that 2015 might see nominal growth. Going forward the next spurt in growth will come from large Middle Eastern, South American and Asian countries especially India. China, Japan is more or less saturated and will not see much growth. USA will see growth but not 50% CAGR rates. India will be the biggest demand driver as the government has set an ambitious 100 GW target for 2022, which rivals that of China which has a target of 100 GW by 2020.

Read advantages of Renewable Energy here.

Big countries like Brazil, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and others should also help drive demand as solar power becomes cheaper and cheaper every day, competing with fossil fuels and making it a no-brainer choice for people looking for electricity.