Abhishek Shah
May 7, 2011
Renewable Energy in India has seen decent growth in the past mainly driven by Wind Energy which accounts for almsot 65% of the estimated 20 GW of Green Energy capacity installed in the country.However to meet India's 2020 Green Energy Target of 15% of power to be generated from renewable sources set by CERC,at least 40 GW more would need to be installed (that is a conservative estimate as load factors for green energy are lower).This is assuming that India meets its target of raising the power capacity to 400 GW by 2020 from around 175 GW at present.Solar Energy in India has not got off to a good start despite immense potential as the federal subsidy program JNNSM has seen irrational bidding by bit players and debt financing is difficult.Wind Power in India has seen the most growth amongst the green sources of power but it too faces hurdles as good quality wind sites have all been taken.
May 7, 2011
India's environment minister Jairam Ramesh has pleaded helplessness as he is too being forced to go along with these environmental destructive projects.This is a characteristic which is peculiar to India and has allowed the culture of corruption to flourish.If you build a large enough project with enough billions in investment you can get away with the murder of the environment as the government could destroy such a large investment.These ad hoc measures which lead to construction of illegal projects has been leading to the destruction of ecology in a large scale manner.Only a blanket demolition of all structures built illegally irrespective of the cost will lead to the lessening of the corruption in the business sector.
May 7, 2011
India's Power Sector is seeing massive investments with innumerable business groups setting up thermal power plants in the country spurred by the electricity deficit of more than 15% and the GDP growth of more than 8% expected in the next decade.India's private power companies are competing with each other in setting up massive ultra mega thermal power plants of 4 GW capacity.However India's pathetic state of electricity distribution may lead to huge losses for the investors in the power sector.The reason is that the electricity distribution is controlled by the state utilities which have cumulative losses of $13 billion which is expected to double to $26 billion in another 5 years.These "discoms' don't have money to pay the private producers of power even with an electricity deficit.With India's electricity market a tangle of red tape,losses and government control the situation looks bleak for all the business groups deciding to enter the power sector.
May 6, 2011
China has been rewriting its renewable energy plan in the wake of the Fukushima Nuclear Energy Disaster in Japan.Note there has been a strong global backlash against nuclear energy around the world and 7 nuclear plants in Germany have been closed all but in name.Other countries like South Korea,Italy,Switzerland are rethinking of what do about their nuclear reactors giving the massive tail risks with nuclear generation.China had a target of only 20 GW of solar by 2020 has decided to raise the target by 150% to 50 GW according to the country's leading energy planning authority NRDC.Note China installed more than 15 GW of Wind Energy in 2010 alone becoming the world’s largest Wind Energy Market by far.Solar Energy strongly lags Wind in China despite China having the biggest solar panel manufacturing industry in the world.Its Golden Sun and other Solar Subsidy programs have been small in absolute terms compared to its huge electricity capacity.
May 6, 2011
CBI which is India's leading investigate agency controlled by the government at the centre has been known to be a pawn in the ruling party hands.It selectively investigates cases against the opposition and the ruling alliance repeatedly messing up intentionally cases of graft against government ministers at the state and federal level.The Ruling Party has often used CBI as a powerful tool against both alliance parties as well as the opposition parties.This blantant manner of corruption had made the Supreme Court directly take the supervision of CBI in the 2G Telecom Scandal investigation which has thrown top corporate and politicians in jail.Now CBI has started acting tardily in the Adarsh Housing Scandal in which top Congress ministers in Maharashtra,bureaucrats,retired generals and admirals had conspired to usurp real estate land worth crores of ruppees.
May 5, 2011
The Tata Group which is known in India for high standards of corporate governance and doing business ethically in a country steeped in corruption too seems to have fallen.Ratan Tata appeared blemished as tapes of his conversations with the now disreputed corporate lobbyist Nira Radia were published in the media.He was caught at least listening and agreeing the the open manipulation of the Indian ministries in government formation if not the architect.Tata Teleservices which was a major beneficiary of the second round of 2G Telecom Auction during Raja's tenure has now again appeared in the news for the wrong reasons.Despite denials by the Tata Group honchos,the Tata companies seem to be complicit in the billion dollar scam that has shaken the political and business roots of India.
May 3, 2011
Grantham has made a famous call that the rise in commodities is not a cyclical phenomenon but a secular long term one.He says that the rise in commodity prices is different from the past.Note Grantham has done an extensive study of bubbles and is one of the leading minds in the investment community.While every time in the past,the statement "this time is different" has led to a crash,Grantham's call cannot be taken lightly.He says that the rise in population,shortage of resources,the growing consumption power of massive chunks of prosperous citizens in India and China will lead to a continued surge.Note commodity prices have declined secularly in the last century and since 2000 have managed to erase all their losses to form new peaks.Grantham also says there is a possibility of a massive short term decline which will give a historic opportunity to load on commodities.Jim Rogers is the most famous commodity bull and now Grantham has joined him.Note famous hedge fund managers have already made huge bets on gold and are winning currently.Note CIA and German Military are already on the record for calling Peak Oil which would lead to a drastic fall in living conditions worldwide as the global growth fueled by cheap fossil fuels sees an end
May 3, 2011
The Cons of Geothermal Power are winning over the Pros in the last few years due to a number of factors.The main reasons are the long gestation time in building the geothermal energy plants,small developers,financing and regulation problems.Despite geothermal having huge potential these drawbacks have resulted in only 10 GW of geothermal energy being installed worldwide despite almost 30 years of commercial development.Most of the geothermal companies which are small developers have been devastated by the above problems.Canadian companies which are the leaders in consolidating the fragmented industry like Ram Power and Magma Power are facing huge problems.While Ram Power saw its CEO go,Magma is now looking at other renewable energy opportunities.Magma Power has decided to merge with Plutonic Power which is a small hydro and wind company as geothermal energy looks more or less a dead end.
May 3, 2011
Coal M&A is picking up at a feverish pace as the demand and price of coal shoot through the roof.Note Coal is the cheapest fossil fuel and powers most of the world's power plants despite its disadvantages.The abundance and cheapness of coal has managed to hide its deleterious effects.Indian and Chinese companies are gobbling up coal mines and companies globally as they rush to secure raw material for the growing thermal power plant capacity.The Adani Group is one of the leading Indian private power companies setting up gigawatts of new thermal power plant capacity.Mundhra Port the Adani Flagship has been buying up coal plants,ports and building power plants to vertically integrate itself in the whole coal supply chain.It recently bought the Australian Linnc Energy's Gaililee coal project for USD 2.7 billion.It has followed it up by buying Abbot Point Coal Terminal from the Queensland state of Australia for 1.8 billion Australian dollars.
May 3, 2011
India's Central Bank has been steadily raising interest rates in 25 bps increments as inflation has raged at more the double digits for more than a year.However it has not stopped the inflation from coming down as high commodity prices keep the inflation at 9% which is much more than the target of 3-5% inflation rates.With Bernake money printing fueling oil and food prices globally,it looked unlikely that RBI's timid measure would bring the inflation down anytime soon.So this time the Central Bank has thrown the kitchen sink at the problem raising the interest rates by 50 bps to 7.25% which is much more than what the market was expecting.The Central Bank also raised the interest rate on savings rate from 3.25% to 4% which was not expected by anyone.Note the low interest rate on savings bank had been a huge money spinner to top Indian banks which have large deposits of this low interest rate savings deposits.
May 2, 2011
Indian government seems not to have learned much from the Fukushima Nuclear Meltdown which has thrown millions of Japanese lives out of gear and caused massive disruption to the economy.The Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant to be built by NPCIL using Areva's experimental nuclear reactors has got the federal government's environmental clearance.Note the protests against the plant had got a political color with local opposition parties getting involved.A number of villagers have already been killed by police firing and further protests are expected.Note India's activist environment minister Jairam Ramesh has proven to be selectively biased towards large industrial projects in Congress ruled states.After appearing to be hero stopping the Niyamgiri project from Vedanta,Ramesh has given the go ahead to politically favored projects.Not a surprise given the endemic corruption present in the ruling coalition which has given birth to a number of corruption scams and scandals.Like everything,even a project of this criticality has acquired a political cover with everyone sounding their party positions without worrying about the possibility of a nuclear meltdown in India.
May 2, 2011
Arch Coal is the 3rd largest Coal Company in the USA. During the year ended December 31, 2009, the Company sold approximately 126.1 million tons of coal and operated 19 active mines at 11 mining complexes located in the United States. On October 1, 2009, the Company acquired Rio Tinto’s Jacobs Ranch mine with 345 million tons of coal reserves and integrated it into the Black Thunder mine.International Coal on the other hand is a small producer with a market cap of $2.2 billion previously which has managed a nearly 50% premium.Market Cap of $2.2 Billion is a producer of coal in Northern and Central Appalachia .As of December 31, 2009, the Company operated a total of 11 surface and 11 underground coal mines located in Kentucky, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia and Illinois.The Company’s mines in Central Appalachia produced 10.1 million tons of coal in 2009, and the mines in Northern Appalachia produced 3.9 million tons of coal in 2009.
May 2, 2011
Solar Panels have grown exponentially in the last few years driven by declining costs and growing energy prices.The advent of the low cost manufacturers of silicon solar panels from China,falling raw material polysilicon costs,subsidies from governements fighting climate change have all contributed to the more than 150% increase in world solar demand in 2010.Solar Panels are not only being used on roofs and giant rooftop ground plants,but also are being integrated in buildings known as BIPV applications.Solar Panels are also available in flexible forms which can be used in backpacks and other innovative ways.Now there is another niche for solar panels that is growing.Note most of these companies are using the Concentrated Photovoltaic Technology (CPV).The traditional CPV suffers from heating problems as high concentration of sun power leads to high temperature.Building the CPV systems on water will help them solve their problems according to these companies.
May 2, 2011
Osama Bin Laden used to live in an area which was populated with affluent retired Pakistani senior military offiicers.The compound had 18 foot walls,barbed wire and internet connections.The compound was built in Abbotabad which is just 35 kms away from the Pakistan capital of Islamabad.Living in such a big compound amongst important military officials it would take a really dumb person to think that Pakistan government did not know or shelter Osama Bin Laden.It is a damning indictment of the Pakistani establisment.Note a number of terrorist incidents have a common origin in Pakistan.The Mumbai terrorist bombing in which the prime accused has said that Pakistani government officials were in the know about the bombings in which Americans and Israelis were targeted in India's financial capital Mumbai.The failed London bombing too had its origin in Pakistan.Now this operation which was conduced in the very heart of Pakistan to kill the most dreaded terrorist the world has seen.
May 2, 2011
Lavasa is a story of corruption,looting of the poor and raping of the surrounding environment by the Indian politician-bureaucrat-businessmen nexus in a beautiful cover of a township built for the rich and well heeled.There is little concern for the law as these powerful developers know that they can get away with murder quite literally.The long term sustainability of the township is in doubt which defeats the entire purpose anyway.Any buyer of property in Lavasa should be aware of these problems and should not buy it as their investment will be eroded in the future anyway besides having the taint of being looted from the poor.However the media too has lost interest as a new scandal emerges everyday.
Lavasa Township being constructed near Pune,Maharashtra has been in the media off and on for creating a environmental disaster in the shape of a beautiful township constructed on the hills.The town which has been constructed for 300,000 residents has violated all building and environmental norms of the state and centre.With powerful politicians and businessmen backing the project,its not as surprise that the state government of Maharashtra actively helped the township in bypassing all the laws and regulations.There is no provision for permanent water supply and it would lead to a clash between the water wants of Lavasa and Pune.Note builders in India are notorious for leaving out water and waste sustainability in their plans.The residents of the buildings,apartments and other shelters have to bear the brunt later on when there is no water and problems like waterlogging.Gurgaon the millenium township suffers from both of these problems quite acutely.Note these problems are common to both million dollar homes as well as slums in India.
May 2, 2011
Osama Bin Laden the architect of the dealiest terrorist attack in human history when the Twin Towers and numerous other targest in US were attacked using airline planes has been killed.10 years after starting the campaign to kill Osama Bin Laden,US today said a military mission in Abbotabad Pakistan managed to kill the dreaded fanatic.Note Al Qaeda is the most dangerous international terrorist organization with roots in the badlands of Pakistan and Afganistan.He has been long been suspected of being sheltered in Pakistan which has become a worse hotbed of terrorism than Afganistan.What was surprising that Osama was hiding near the capital of Pakistan which implies that top officials of the Pakistani government had to be involved in hiding Osama.It is an open secret that Pakistan which is being touted as the "US ally" in fight against terrorism has long been playing a double game.The death of Osama in Pakistan brings irrefutable proof to this fact.
May 2, 2011
Air India which is India's government owned airline is a cesspool of corruption,sloth,mismanagement and inefficiency.Most of the the aircraft are worse than the second class cabins in Indian trains with cobwebs hanging and dirt piled around.The air hostesses are rude and hostile and over aged as well.The airline has one of the highest manpower to aircraft ratio in the world with more than 200 per aircraft.The airline routinely loses thousands of crores each year which is wasted on the employees who seem more like arrogant owners than workers.Government officials and politicians treat the airline as their personal property making passengers wait in case they are late.Note its not uncommon to find that the seats are torn up and dirty.If you are unlucky you might even find rats running on your feet as the dirtiness invites rodents to make Air India their home.While all airlines have faced tough years,even the worse private airline does not have rats running through them.
May 2, 2011
SBI and HDFC Bank which are the 2 of the largest banks in the country have protested against the RBI proposal to free up the interest rate given on savings account in India.Note RBI fixes the rate at which money deposited in saings account earns interest currently for all banks in India.The current rate is 3.5% which is way below the near double digit inflation rate being experienced in India.Most Indians deposit their savings in bank saving and fixed deposit accounts as there is no widespread equity or debt investment culture in the country.This allows banks with a large retail depositer base to earn supernormal profits by paying pathetic interest rates on savings account and lending that money at 12-13%.While the public sector banks have to serve a lot of priority sectors private banks have no such concerns.This leads to high NIM for private banks leading to huge profit growth each year.This has made investing in top banks in India such an attractive proposition.
May 1, 2011
NTPC,India's largest power generating utility with around 35 GW of electricity capacity is set to enter renewable energy in a big way as it has singed 500 MW of PPAs with state distribution companies for supplying green energy.Note India's electricity regulator CERC has mandated a 6% Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) in 2011 which will increase by 1% each year to 15% by 2020.A number of states have fallen behind in meeting their RPO and would need to either generate or buy Green Energy to meet the CERC targets for renewable energy.NTPC which is predominantly a thermal power utility has been planning to set up wind and solar power plants but nothing has been done till now.However after signing these PPA with the Madhya Pradesh,Orissa and Karnataka government,the renewable energy projects should get accelerated.
May 1, 2011
Private Banking in India has become one of the fastest growing businesses in the country with a rising wave of millionaires forming an attractive target segment for MNC banks looking for growth.Top Indian Banks have given spectacular returns driven by India's 8% GDP growth and increasing financial penetration.Note Private Banking or Wealth Management business involves providing taxation,wealth managment,investment,insurance and other financial products under one umbrella to wealthy customers.The private banking customers recieve privileged services from the banks who provide a one stop contact person in the shape of a "relationship manager".Compare this to normal banking customers who face namelss contact centre operators with little knowledge.Most of the foreign banks in India like Barclays,Standard Chartered,Citibank which have a big presence in India have been hiring aggressively and targeting wealthy customers through a big marketing spend.However the services being given leave a lot to be desired."Trust" is the biggest quality in a banking relationship as a customer trusts his life savings and in this quality these banks have failed miserably.
May 1, 2011
Note Big Oil and Gas has been slowly been retrenching form the solar energy industry despite initial leadership.Shell which was one of the biggest solar players has become almost non-existent while BP has shut down a number of solar factories outsourcing production to China.Other Oil and Gas companies like Exxon,Valero,Chevron and others have concentrated their energies on related green sectors like algae based biofuels rather than on solar and wind energy.So the move by Total comes as a surprise as it acquires one of the top 15 solar panel companies in the world.Sunpower is being acquired at a cheap price considering its world beating solar cell technology and its massive systems business which has gigawatts of solar projects under development.Note Sunpower makes the highest efficiency solar panels on a commercial scale and recently tied up with AUO.It is the 2nd biggest solar plant installer in the US and has a massive presence in the commercial and government sector.Total said it looked at over 200 companies before buying Sunpower.Note M&A has been strong in the Solar Thermal Industry and has now started picking up in the Solar PV Industry as well.With solar company valuations at a historic low,it makes sense for the larger chemical and energy companies to pick up good companies on the cheap.
April 25, 2011
It is a common practice amongst these companies to add value added services like caller tunes without the customer's permission which is totally illegal.Since most of the customers do not know how the billing is happening and do not know how to turn it off,these companies make millions of dollars in illegal profits from such customers.Airtel,Reliance and other major telecom companies in India follow this practice widely and openly.Nobody is going to complain about 50c/month being charged wrongly by the telecom provider.However 50c multiplied by a 100 million customers is neat $50 million in profits for these companies.This overbilling of customers even extends to broadband customers as I recently found out .After a nightmarish experience with Tata Indicom whose pathetic customer service forced me to change to Airtel,I found a blatant case of overcharging of money in my very first bill.
April 25, 2011
China has recently put increased scrutiny and control over the mining,smelting and export of important minerals like tungsten and rare earth oxides.Note mining in China often takes place illegaly without any regard to environment in quest for a quick buck.Japan which is the largest importer of rare earth oxides from China gets most of its demand met through illegal mining.However China has cracked down on this practise as it regards these minerals like tungsten,iron,rare earth,antimony and molybdenum as important for national goals.China has severely curtailed the exports of rare earth exports leading to a sharp rise in rare earth prices and stocks of rare earth companies.This has sparked concern in developed countries and blocks like EU,Japan and USA which has taken the case to the WTO.
April 25, 2011
India has lately become a nation known for endemic corruption rather than the world's poster growth boy with the ruling party members implicated in a number of corruption scams.With the government reluctant to take action against its own,the Supreme Court was forced to take over the supervision of the investigating agency CBI.In the first chargesheet top corporate honchos and CEOs were put under arrest alongwith the former telecom minister Raja and his cronies.With the ruling party under pressure from a civil society movement against corruption,the ability to manipulate the investigation process is limited.Not that the government is not trying put impediments in the court cases and top ministers and leaders indulging in character assassination of the eminent social activists like Santosh Hedge and others.This comes even as other chief ministers of the Congress like Gehlot get caught in nepotism.
April 25, 2011
India's Leather Industry worth more than $7 billion annually is heavily fragmented with small scale units accounting for almost 80% of the industry's revenues.The lack of scale has led to the leather industry not using the best technology and practises as a result it has been heavily polluting the surrounding water and air.The leather industry is present in clusters in many parts of the country like Kolkata,Kanpur,Punjab and other other places.The common theme running across these clusters is their uniforming polluting ways.Leather industry is a a typically developing country activity as the labor and low value add involved has made developed countries mostly outsource production to least developing countries where regulations are lax.However the environment unfriendly activities have become untenable with the major export markets imposing strict ecological regulations about production and sale.This has made it difficult for the industry to cope up as they lack the capital and technology to put in pollution control equipment.
April 25, 2011
Wind Power in India is the 5th biggest wind energy market in the world with more than 2 Gw of wind capacity being installed in the country.However Wind Energy Companies in India are seeing increasing competition from the entry of low cost Chinese Wind Turbine manufacturers Shanghai Electric and Dongfang.Chinese Wind Companies have seen astronomical growth in the last 5 years to occupy 7 of the top 15 global positions in the top wind companies in the world from zero.On the other hand India has only Suzlon in that list. Wind Turbines in India which are not as sophisticated and advanced in the western market with most turbines being of lower than 1 MW capacity.However with increasing focus on improving the LCOE and development of low wind locations,India Turbine producers are concentrating on introducing higher capacity 2.5 MW turbines and advanced technology like "direct drive" wind turbines.
April 25, 2011
India is a massively energy deficient country with official figures citing around 15% of peak electricity demand deficit due to lack of power generation and distribution.The […]
April 25, 2011
Maharashtra which is the largest power generating state in India but deficient in renewable energy sources of generation will not use the discredited reverse auction bidding mechanism being used in the First Phase of the JNNSM Federal Solar Subsidy Policy.The reverse auction bidding was done due to the massive deluge of applications for setting up solar PV and solar thermal power plants.Based on the Rs 17.91/Kwh Feed in Tariff,developers had bid discounts with the solar project owner offering the biggest discount winning the right to build the solar power plant.This had led to irrationally low bidding for projects and it is all but certain that these solar projects will either be not be built at all or run into heavy losses.
April 25, 2011
The Government of India issued an Ordinance on 19th January, 1956 nationalizing the Life Insurance sector and Life Insurance Corporation came into existence in the same year. The Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) absorbed 154 Indian, 16 non-Indian insurers as also 75 provident societies—245 Indian and foreign insurers in all. In 1972 with the General Insurance Business (Nationalization) Act was passed by the Indian Parliament, and consequently, General Insurance business was nationalized with effect from 1st January, 1973. 107 insurers were amalgamated and grouped into four companies, namely National Insurance Company Ltd., the New India Assurance Company Ltd., the Oriental Insurance Company Ltd and the United India Insurance Company Ltd. The LIC had monopoly till the late 90s when the Insurance sector was reopened to the private sector.Now more than 20 life insurance companies in India have started operations with the industry size expected to reach a mammoth $350-400 billion by 2020. Before that, the industry consisted of only two state insurers: Life Insurance Corporation of India, LIC and General Insurers (General Insurance Corporation of India, GIC). GIC has four subsidiaries
April 22, 2011
Mining Industry in India is an important economic sector which contributes significantly to the economy of India. India's minerals range from both metallic and non-metallic types.The total working mines were 2,854 in 2007-08 with 569 mines belonged to coal and lignite, 676 mines to metallic minerals and 1,609 mines to non-metallic minerals.There were 755 mines in public sector and the remaining 2,099 mines in private sector.India is an important exporter of iron ore, titanium, manganese, bauxite, granite, and imports cobalt, mercury, graphite etc. India mineral resources of the country are surveyed by the Indian Ministry of Mines, which also regulates the manner in which these resources are used. The ministry oversees the various aspects of industrial mining in the country.Note Mining in India comes under both the ferderal and state supervision.