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May 22, 2010Market Research firm iSuppli has made an extremely “bullish call” for German demand in 2010 and 2011.iSuppli is predicting a 6.6 GW (up 70% y/y) demand for Germany in 2010 and an astounding 9.5 GW of demand in Germany for 2011.This despite expecting another 13.5% cut in FIT rates in 2011 which would bring the total FIT cut from Jan 2010 to Jan 2011 to a huge 40% overall cut in FIT rates.
Note iSuppli keeps changing its forecasts frequently, for example it was calling for 8.3 GW of demand in 2010 in February and now it is saying 13 GW .Nothing radically has changed from February in terms of FIT cuts . The German one off subsidy cut is going through pretty much as it was reported by Reuters in December 2009 .
My own opinion is that it is too early to call for demand projections for 2011 though 2010 German demand should be pretty close to 6.5 GW. Expect these predictions by iSuppli to change a great deal (up/down), as demand is more a function of government regulation which tends to be very fickle than the normal economic supply/demand equations.Also a 9.5 GW solar demand in Germany might make the government clamp down faster than the demand gets realized.Note 9.5 GW would amount to almost 7.5% of the total German installed electricity capacity in one year . I would not base any investment decision based on these projections.