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March 25, 2015Global Solar capacity to reach ~500 GW in 2019
Total solar capacity to reach close to 500 GW in 2019, according to a recent report by IHS. This will be a 177% increase from 2014. The total demand is expected to reach 75GW in 2019, which will be 66% higher than in 2014. The annual demand is expected to be 1 GW in average for 11 markets in the world between 2015 and 2019. In 2014 China and Japan were the largest solar growth drivers, and constituted 50% of the total demand. While US, UK and Germany accounted for another 25%.
The total solar market is thus poised to grow in the coming years. However IHS predicts that the thin film modules’ share will decline to 7% in 2015 from 8% in the last year. This will the lowest since 2010. Also the average selling price (ASP) of c-Si modules will decline by 27% between 2015 and 2019, reaching just 45 cents per watt.
The solar industry looks to expand by 15-20% each year, as the industry is now more matured and stabilized. Asia will be the largest continent to install PV capacity, with Asia Pacific market is expected to be worth $37.8 billion by 2020. China, Japan and India will be the principal countries promoting solar energy. That will be a 14.8% CAGR.
Biggest Gainers
According to this report the biggest gainers should be Chinese solar companies like Trina Solar (TSL), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Jinko Solar (JKS), JA Solar (JASO) who were the largest shippers in 2014, and projected strong shipment numbers for the coming year too. The largest thin film module manufacturer like First Solar (FSLR) might need to tighten its belt. However, the company is strengthening its forte in the Cd-Te segment, given the increase in demand from this segment. Also according to the given IHS report, cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) modules should be the growth drivers in the thin film module category.
“In 2014, the market began to shift toward a more supply-driven market, characterized by high utilization rates, following the more demand-driven market that led to PV manufacturing consolidation,” said Susanne von Aichberger, solar industry analyst for IHS. “This trend is expected to continue through to 2019, when the utilization rate at module production is projected exceed the peak utilization rate reached in 2010, when the global market experienced explosive growth.”
1 Comment
Thin film technology is mostly used for utility scale solar pv projects where land is cheaper and not feasible where land is costly. The thin film technology is space intensive, therefore, it is not suitable for Residential, Commercial , Industrial and Agricultural sector. Thin film technology has limitations and require technological innovation.