45 GW Solar Demand in 2014

The total global solar demand is expected to come at 45 GW, which is roughly the middle point of the 40-50 GW expected at the end of 2013. China is expected to come lower, as the installation has been only 3.79 GW by October 2014. The country can at best be expected to install only 6-7 GW in the final quarter of the year. There has been trading on solar permits in China which has now been prohibited. People who have solar permits are selling them for around 5-10c/watt, which is almost 5-10% of the total installation cost. The government is cracking down on this practice; which means that investors who are willing to put up the solar power plants do not have permits, while those who have permits do not have the money to put up these power plants.

Japan may surpass China as the biggest demand driver of solar demand this year, as the country can be expected to install 10-12 GW this year. This will be the peak year for Japan in my view, as the country slows down installation next year by driving down the prices of solar FITs. EnergyTrend has predicted that next year demand may be 50 GW with again the Big Three – Japan, China and USA making up the lion’s share of installations. Earlier I had written that 2015 demand may be lower than 2014, but with China slowing down it means that 2015 might see nominal growth. Going forward the next spurt in growth will come from large Middle Eastern, South American and Asian countries especially India. China, Japan is more or less saturated and will not see much growth. USA will see growth but not 50% CAGR rates. India will be the biggest demand driver as the government has set an ambitious 100 GW target for 2022, which rivals that of China which has a target of 100 GW by 2020.

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Big countries like Brazil, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and others should also help drive demand as solar power becomes cheaper and cheaper every day, competing with fossil fuels and making it a no-brainer choice for people looking for electricity.