Solar Growth

Solar demand is expected to surge by 20% in 2013, after a flat 2012 as lower solar panel prices boosts solar adoption in under penetrated parts of the world. Asia will overtake Europe as the biggest market for solar modules with countries like China and Japan become the biggest solar power countries. Europe will see a continued decline with major markets like Germany and Italy saturated with solar power. Spain and Czech have already sharply reduced/ stopped subsidies and except for UK there is no major growth in solar demand.

Read my earlier article 2012 Actual Solar Demand Growth does not turn out to be too great, 2013 should be much better.

Middle East and Africa will see the fastest growth of 250% as countries like South Africa and Saudi Arabia start building huge solar farms. Latin America led by countries like Chile and Brazil are also boosting solar demand. Brazil with its very high electricity rates does not require subsidies while Chile also benefits by installing large solar farms to power its mine in remote deserts.

IHS thinks that Chinese demand will not be 10 GW, as is being predicted by most analysts but will be more conservative at 6 GW. They also think that countries like Turkey and Poland will surprise with solar growth. This should boost the solar panel makers who have been continued to be plagued by plunging prices and massive overcapacity. The turnaround in solar stocks will only come if the Chinese government allows the bankrupt solar companies like Suntech to fail. If they keep running the zombie companies then the whole industry will see another year or two of losses and pain.

Read about Chinese Solar Panel Reviews.

PV Tech

Market research firm IHS has released a new forecast for the photovoltaics industry that is more bullish about global installations in 2013 than many others.Confirming its previous projection, IHS said that global PV installations in 2012 reached 31.4GW, a 14% increase over the previous year. In contrast, NPD Solarbuzz had recently confirmed it put global installations at 29GW for 2012.

However, IHS noted that grid-connected PV capacity was actually lower than the total installation figure which it said had reached 30GW in 2012. IHS said this was due to lengthy delays in connecting major PV projects in countries such as China and India.

 “While hopes in the past could have been pinned on Germany or Italy — which accounted for nearly two-thirds of European installations in 2012 — growth here looks impossible,” Sharma said. “Changes to Germany’s EEG and Italy’s Conto Energia are already in place, and a contraction in these two big markets is predicted in 2013. Moreover, looming antidumping measures against Chinese manufacturers are taking their toll on Europe, resulting in price increases and additional registration paperwork that will further temper solar demand this year.”

In emerging markets, coming off from small installation levels, growth rates of 250%, 50% and 65% are forecast for Middle-East & Africa, Americas, and Asia respectively.