Indian Junk IPO Market – Small IPOs trade way below their record highs

Here is an  analysis on how small IPOs over the past few years are trading way off their highs .

Small IPOs trade way below their record highs – Economic Times

Good things come in small packets, so goes the saying. But the adage will have to make an exception when it comes to the post-listing performance of quite a few small-sized (Rs 150 crore and less) initial public offerings in the past few months. This has led many retail investors to believe that smaller public issues offer a better chance of easy gains.

But many brokers advise restraint, as the probability of being saddled with dud shares is equally higher. According to data compiled by ET, 161 of the 220 small-sized public issues since 2005, are trading between 40-95% below their record highs seen during the peak of the bull run. This, despite the market more than doubling from its lows of March 2009.

I would not touch any of the current IPOs in the Indian markets. However there are “smart” commentators who have  “feelings” that some of them may do well.

Nitesh Estate IPO: High risk, high reward play, says Udayan

Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjee’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

There are a lot of people who don’t like the issue because there is not much by way of past performance to go on and that always makes people little wary, particularly in real estate space when you haven’t seen proven delivery capabilities and that is the problem with Nitesh.

If you look back a couple of years, there is hardly anything by way of revenues and delivery and that is what is making people nervous.

I have a hunch that Nitesh might actually go on to deliver over the next couple of years because it has a young aggressive management, they have big plans lined up. Some of their properties in Bangalore, Goa, Cochi look pretty interesting, but they don’t have much to show for it yet.

What also impresses me is the quality of investors that they have already got in their fold. This is a small stock, it will be Rs 800 crore marketcap when it lists, but they already have marquee names which own small slices in the company. So this is a high risk, high reward kind of play.

If you believe that Nitesh will deliver on the promise over the next couple of years, then at Rs 800 crore market cap you can take a gamble. If it pays off you will make a lot of money from this kind of price point, but if it doesn’t like last couple of years, if they stumble on delivery then you will probably lose a bit of a packet. So I think if you are a brave heart sort who wants to take a risk and punt, my own feeling is that Nitesh might go on to deliver over the next couple of years. But it’s a risky one, so you need to be very clear about that.