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Proved – International Energy Agency (IEA) is Always Radically Wrong on Solar Energy Forecasting

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IEA Solar Predictions contradict Growth

IEA has consistently been proved wrong while forecasting the growth of solar energy, even since it came out with its yearly forecasts since 2008. Despite being wrong year after year, IEA has failed to correct its methodology and continued to blunder on. It increases its yearly solar energy demand piecemeal and fails to recognize the exponential nature of solar panels. Solar energy costs have fallen by around 10% per year for the last 50 years and its demand will keep growing rapidly as it has become cheaper than even the cheaper energy alternative source – coal. However, IEA still is forecasting extremely conservative numbers. One charitable explanation would be to say that the rapid fall in solar energy costs have not been foreseen even by other analysts while the less charitable explanation would be that IEA does not want to see the reality given the strength of the fossil fuel lobby.

Related reads:

Why is IEA making unreasonably optimistic projections for fossil fuels

IEA Continues To Remain Stupidly Conservative On Solar Growth

IEA’s incorrect numbers have major implications as they are taken as a bible by policy makers and national decision makers. This leads to wrong capital allocation decisions and wrong policies. Maybe the graph given below will let the senior management of IEA rethink their approach and show them how their credibility is entirely shot due to consistently wrong forecasting.

PV growth chart

Source: Science Alert


Sneha Shah

I am Sneha, the Editor-in-chief for the Blog. We would be glad to receive suggestions, inputs & comments on GWI from you guys to keep it going! You can contact me for consultancy/trade inquires by writing an email to

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