Solar and Wind Energy to double to 8% of Global Electricity generation by 2018 from 4% now
July 4, 2013Atlanta Gives Green Light to Green Future
July 5, 2013Desertec Project to close down
I have always been a big critic of the Desertec project which envisaged building huge solar thermal plants in North Africa and transporting that power to Europe. The main reason for my negativity was the massive advancements that solar PV technology has made in comparison to the solar thermal technology in recent years. The costs of solar PV have reduced so drastically that it is now starting to compete with electricity grid prices, while solar thermal prices remain almost 200% higher than the installed costs of solar PV plants.
Read about Advantages and Disadvantages of Solar Thermal Energy.
A number of top solar thermal technology companies such as Siemens have left the field, despite hundreds of millions of dollars in past investment. They can clearly see the writing on the wall that solar thermal technology has been left in the dust by a better technology. The main advantage of solar thermal technology in terms of energy storage will also disappear as the cost of energy storage for solar PV systems are declining.
Some countries like India are still stupidly pursuing solar thermal technology, despite the massive delays that they are facing. Most of the India’s solar thermal plants awarded almost 3 years ago, have not been built and are unlikely to be ever built in my view. It would be prudent of the Indian policymakers to concentrate on DG solar systems from now on.
Desertec Foundation leaves Desertec
The Desertec foundation is melting down, with the Desertec foundation leaving the consortium. This will leave the consortium with no name and the future of the organization is in grave doubt. Some top European members like Bosch have left the entity as they have exited the solar energy business. Even after 4 years, Desertec has not made much progress and now it seems almost certain that the organization will be disbanded.
Desertec Some Background
Desertec is a Euro 400 Billion Solar Thermal Project to provide 15% of Europe’s Electricity Needs by 2050 from Power generated in the Deserts of North Africa. The Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII) was launched with much fanfare by 12 European Companies in July 2009 with plans of constructing 100 GW of CSP Plants in the Sahara Desert which would be transported by High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Undersea Lines to Europe. What gives the Concept the Heft and Influence is the Participants are Giants of European Industry like Siemens, ABB, Deutche Bank, Munich Re, Abengoa etc. Besides a number of new Green Companies like First Solar have also joined the consortium. However Desertec advantages which are explained very eloquently on Desertec Website totally fail to explain how the it will compete against the rapidly falling costs of Decentralized, Distributed Photovoltaic Solar Energy. There are number of Points which I think makes Desertec just a dream rather than reality. Is the Humongous Solar Thermal Desertec Project a White Elephant Doomed to Fail?
1) High Costs – Desertec will apparently cost Euro 3.5/watt with another Euro 50c/watt cost for High Voltage Transmission. However these costs are too high as Solar PV already costs Euro 3.5/watt and even on a conservative basis will have its costs reduced by 5% in the next 10 years making it attain half the cost of Solar Thermal Technology by 2020.
3) Future Technology has a high probability of making CSP Obsolete – Solar Energy has become a hotbed of innovation with daily news of some new breakthrough in materials and process in PV Technology. Oerlikon has come out with a radial new a-Si Technology while CIGs player are touting increased efficiencies. Chinese Solar Companies have captured large chunks of the Solar Market through low cost leadership while number of Global Heavyweights like Posco, Samsung, Hyundai, Sharp, GE, TSMC promise to further decrease these costs. To bet Euro 400 Billion on a Technology that has a high probability of becoming obsolete is too risky.
4) Water Issue – Solar Thermal Plants use lots of Water which is Major Problem in Desert Areas. Using non-water cooling raises the cost of CSP projects too much. While using SeaWater has been proposed it remains to be seen if it possible to implement this solution as this would imply building Plants very near the Coastline.
5) Energy Dependence – Currently Europe finds itself hostage to periodic Russian Gas Stoppages as it depends massively on imports of Oil and Gas. However this project will replace one form of energy dependence to another. Note using distributed PV not only cuts down on Transmission costs, it entirely eliminates the Energy Security Issue.
6) Ecological and Cultural Issues – The usage of massive arrays of mirrors is noted to heavily impact the Desert Wildlife endangering the endangered species. California has already seen a massive fight on this issue with Project Developers curtailing the size of their plants and spending money to move the wildlife. Don’t think this would receive too much attention in the African countries. They are also cultural issues with some of these Muslim countries might have in Exporting so much Energy to Christian Countries.
7) Terrorist Attacks and Rogue Regimes – The Transmission Lines become a prime terrorist target which would increase the cost of the Project as Multiple Lines are constructed. There is also the danger that a rogue regime takes control of the North African countries. This would create a situation akin to War over the Suez Canal by Britain with Egypt. Any sort of Multilateral would impinge on the Sovereignty of the countries creating another problem.
8 ) White Elephant being Built to be Juiced by Companies – Their are allegations that Desertec is nothing but a monstrous White Elephant being built by the Companies to juice European Taxpayers of Hundred of Billions of Euros. Note this Project cannot be constructed without massive subsidies by European countries which would have to be paid over the next 2-3 decades. It would lead to Billion Dollar Contracts for the Involved Companies and More Billions in Profits over the Lifetime of the Project.
The DESERTEC Foundation, the body behind an ambitious plan to power Europe with huge renewable energy plants in the deserts of North Africa, has quit the industrial consortium seeking to implement the vision..In a strongly worded statement the foundation said numerous “irresolvable disputes” had emerged with the Desertec Industrial Intiative (Dii), the industry group working to deliver the plan in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East.
The foundation singled out future strategy and the “managerial style of Dii’s top management” as the areas that had become the biggest sources of contention between the two bodies.
“The dispute at the management level has already led to resentment among the partners of the Desertec Foundation and it negatively affects our reputation and trust. This is what the Desertec Foundation intends to avoid,” the statement said.The foundation’s statement pointed out that it rather than Dii is the “sole owner” of the “Desertec” brand name and concept, raising questions over Dii’s ability to continue functioning without the foundation’s support.