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India’s Solar Power Outlook,

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Given the government’s attention, solar power is expected to increase substantially in future. The Twelfth Five Year Plan targets to add 3800 MW of solar power. Accordingly, the fund requirement for solar projects in the plan is expected to be Rs 49,400 crore. The Thirteenth Plan targets an addition of 16,000 MW of solar power. With valuable government support and technological developments, solar power is expected to achieve grid parity by 2017 in India. (Source: The Rising Sun, A report by KPMG)

Solar Power Capacity Forecasts, by 2017

Policy support from state as well as Central Government has created huge interest in the market. Various Indian and international companies have expressed interest in setting up generation capacities across the country. As per our database, as of May 30, 2012, 234 plants totaling 9,095 MW of upcoming solar power capacity are under various stages of development in India. The status of all these plants is defined as follows:

Under Construction: Actual construction of the plant has started

Planned: Background work, such as land acquisition and clearances, for setting up the plants has started

Announced: Government has announced the project but no MOU has been signed

?  41 plants totalling 3598 MW of solar power are under construction in India. Of these, 40 MW is expected to be commissioned in 2012 itself while 3385 MW of additional capacity is expected to be commissioned in 2013. 174 plants totalling 5191 MW are in the planning stage, out of which 253 MW is expected to be commissioned in 2012 itself followed by another 165 MW to be commissioned in 2013.

Figure :Upcoming Solar Power Capacity under Various Stages of Development as of May 30, 2012

100%= 9,095 MW

Source: GWI Database.

Year-Wise Capacity Addition Trends, by 2017

About 293 MW of solar capacity is expected to be commissioned in 2012, out of which 193 MW would be SPV and other 100 MW would be thermal-based. Maximum capacity addition of 3550 MW is expected from 2012 to 2013, majority of which will be through SPV technologies. After 2013, till 2016, consistent growth can be seen (CAGR 19.5%).

JNNSM targets to achieve maximum grid-connected capacity of about 10,000 MW by 2017 — in line with our estimates. Under our most optimistic scenario, wherein we are assuming that all the plants announced till now will be commissioned maximum by 2017, a total of 9095 MW of grid-connected capacity is expected to be added.

Figure : Cumulative Capacity Addition Trends, Year-wise, 2012-17, in MW

State-Wise Capacity Addition Trends, by 2017

Solar power would be available mainly in Rajasthan and Gujarat. According to the report of The Working group on Power for Twelfth Plan, Gujarat has planned to add 960 MW of solar power, while Rajasthan plans to add 1300 MW. As per our estimates, Gujarat will add maximum capacity (4664 MW; 55% contribution) by 2017, followed by Rajasthan (1412 capacity additions planned). Other key states are Andhra Pradesh (468 MW) and Madhya Pradesh (307 MW).

Figure: State-wise capacity addition trends, by 2017

Source: GWI Database.

Player-Wise Capacity Addition Trends, by 2017

In the last one year, contribution from private sector players has increased significantly in the solar sector. On analyzing capacity addition trends by 2017, maximum capacity of about 52% is expected to be added by private sector players, followed by state sector players with 39% (3519 MW) contribution and Central sector players with 9% (840 MW). Among the Central sector players, Indian Oil Corporation is expected to commission SPV plants across India totalling about 543 MW. Among the state players, Gujarat Power Corporation, under Clinton Climate Initiative, is expected to commission about 3000 MW of SPV capacity in Gujarat

Figure: Capacity Addition Break-up by Player category, by 2017

Source: GWI

Among the private players, Acme Tele Power ltd. is expected to commission maximum solar capacity of about 582.5 MW across Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Chhattisgarh. Other big player to contribute maximum solar capacity is Abengoa Solar, which is expected to commission maximum solar capacity of about 540 MW across Rajasthan, Gujarat and South India. Other key private players in solar sector are Sun Borne Energy Technologies and Adani Power Limited. Some of the biggest projects are expected to be launched by private sector.

The report has been prepared by using our Database of Under-construction; Planned and Announced Solar power in the country. The database contains a list of over 400 SPV/ST upcoming solar power plants in the country along with the name of developer/owner and anticipated commissioning date.  In case you are interested in procuring the database  please contact us at greensneha@yahoo.inor


Rishi Srivastava

Rishi is a student of MBA in Power Management from Centre of Advance Management in Power Studies ,NPTI. He has over 3 years of experience in IT-consulting domain. His areas of interest include Renewable Energy, CDM, Demand- side management and rural electrification through off-grid/micro-grid.

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