2011
February 16, 2011
Solar Panel Prices have decreased at a jaw dropping 50% in the last 2 years and will probably decrease 10-15% more in 2011.That is an astounding number given the increasing energy and electricity prices being faced around the globe.Though solar energy is costlier than other forms of energy,it starts on a low base.With 2010 solar growth pegged at more than 100% and 16 GW of solar panels installed,Solar Energy is starting to become more mainstream.Like Solar,the entry of Chinese players has decreased the cost of Wind Energy as well.Despite increasing input steel and copper prices,wind turbine prices have declined.Stiff competition amongst Chinese WTG companies has made the price of a Wind Turbine go as low as $600,000-700,000 in China.This has brought a depression in prices in other places in the world as well.
February 16, 2011
Semiconductor and Electronics Giant Samsung is entering into production of polysilicon setting up a 10,000 ton plant in an equal JV with US Poly Producer MEMC.The plant will be set up in South Korea and will go onstream by 2013 as it takes around 2 years to set up a plant.Note Samsung had recently started production solar crystalline silicon solar panels which uses polysilicon as raw material.Samsung has a strategy for manufacturing crucial raw materials inhouse for its different product lines.For example Samsung has a multi billion dollar JV with Corning to manufacture LCD glass in South Korea and a JV to make wafers for semiconductors with Wacker.It uses the expertise and technology of its JV partners to get into raw material production.The JV partners get a huge customer for their products and are happy to go along with Samsung in these Joint Ventures.
February 15, 2011
India's Environment Ministry Jairam Ramesh has been portrayed as the devil incarnate by the industrial lobbies as he has struck down various billion dollar realty, mining and power projects.First it was Vedanta's mining project in Orissa,then the Lavasa township in Pune and then power projects in Andhra Pradesh.While some of these infrastructure projects should go ahead with modifications,it has brought some regard for the environment.While some of the projects like the Jaitapur Nuclear Plant in Maharashtra were given the environmental go-ahead despite serious concerns raised by TISS and local citizens,the trampling of ecology by the corporate lobbies seems to have been curtailed.However India's growing economy and its massive energy needs cannot be kept at bay for long.
February 15, 2011
Solyndra is one of the most hyped solar starups which has managed to raise $1 billion in funding and coming out with surprisingly little for the money.Not only did it postpone its IPO but also shut down its first factory as pricess keep diving faster than it can cut costs.Brightsource Energy on the other hand seems to have a brighter future with its unique CSP technology.Also with backers like Alstom and Bechtel,it has the heavy engineering support to construct the massive 392 MW plant.Note other Solar Thermal startups like Ausra and Soliel Systems were bought up by giant engineering conglomerartes Areva and Siemens.Brightsource along with eSolar remain the only pureplay CSP companies still surviving.
February 15, 2011
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) has been mooted as one of the main weapons against climate change.With little alternative to Coal based power generation,CCS is touted as a temporary solution.However CCS as a global warming solution is like putting lipstick on a pig.The technology for CCS remains immature at best and even the biggest users of coal,the Chinese utilities have ruled out using CCS before 2015.Though big pilot projects have been announced in Australia,USA and UK,CCS is not a serious option as far as dealing with climate change.This however has not prevented companies from playing in this area.Toshiba is the latest company to join the CCS fray hoping to set up a 5 MW pilot plant in JV with India's biggest power utility NTPC.
February 15, 2011
The recent Supreme Court case dealing with the phone tapping of a political leader who has fallen on bad days has revealed an astounding fact.The Indian Government taps more than 100 phones a day just from a single telecom operator.When the Supreme Court castigated Reliance Telecom for tapping the phone based on a phony letter full of bad grammar,the operator revaeled that it had recieved requests to tap 150,000 phones over a period of 5 years.This reveals a massive systematic abuse by the government of its powers.This sort of behaviour seems more like that of a police state like Egypt rather than a flourishing democracy.Talking on the mobile phone has suddenly become a dangerous activity as Big Brother Indian government is listening to most of the country's communications.The recent Nira Radia phone tap leak shows the complete respect for privacy.It is not only the government,the service providers in the country have scant respect for your privacy.Telecom operators,Banks,Travel Agencies will sell your information for a pittance to marketing agencies.Telecom operators will not only sell your information but also the list of all your contacts.
February 15, 2011
Insider Trading is quite rampant in India particularly in mid cap and small cap companies where promoters frequently collude with market operators in rigging up stock […]
February 14, 2011
The Liberalization of India in the 1990s ushered in a new era of not only high growth as its industries and enterpreneurs were unshackled from the chains of License Raj but also an era of Crony Capitalism.The erstwhile business barons who maintained their fiefdoms through manipulation of licenses,now shifted their focus elsewhere.With new sectors of the opening up and growing exponentially unscrupulous promoters had the chance to mint billions.The bursting of the 2G Telecom Scam has bust the cozy Crony Capitalism Relationship.India's Supreme Court reposing lack of faith in the investigative powers of the government has personally taken charge of the prosecution.With powerful ministers,bureaucrats and billionaire businessmen involved,only India's Supreme Court has the chance to bring the guilty to justice.
February 14, 2011
Moser Bear,the Indian Solar Company was one of the first customers for the now extinct Applied Materials a-Si SunFab Technology.The company had invested in a number of solar technologies quite early on,but has not managed to succeed in a single one much like the Abu Dhabi promoted Masdar.The Jack of all Trades strategy has come undone for both of these companies.While Chinese and some US companies have prospered despite stiff competition,most of the others have sunk.While most of AMAT customers have written off their investment in thin film equipment and factories,Moser Baer has not done so.But from its current action it seems to have given up at least in its thin film ambitions.Moser Bear has contracted for 25 MW of First Solar thin film modules.Note First Solar is the biggest thin film producer of solar panels and a direct competitor to Moser Baer.So it seems that Moser Baer has pretty much abandoned its thin film panels since if it itself does not use its own panels,don't think a 3rd party would do so.
February 14, 2011
This time India's Space Research Agency ISRO has come under the scanner for giving a sweetheart deal to a private company without bidding and tenders.This has resulted in another huge loss for the public treasury just like the Telecom Scam.The Space Agency comes under the direct authority of the Prime Minister and has further muddied the waters for the ruling coalition.With scam per day performance,the government is under tremendous pressure and losing its way in reforming the economy.Corruption in India is literally taking on Galactic Proportions and showing no signs of stopping.The Devas-Antrix Deal has also foreign investors which makes scrapping the contract for giving spectrum to Devas difficult.With India's Supreme Court breathing down its neck over prosecuting the guilty in the Telecom Scam,the government finds itself besieged.It can hardly afford opening another corruption frontier when it already finds its hands full with the existing scams.
February 14, 2011
Fineotex Chemicals (FCL) is a Maharashtra based small chemicals company which is coming out with an IPO for 4.2 million shares at Rs 60-72 to raise Rs 25-30 crores with a total market cap of around Rs 42-50 crores.The company has a 5000 tons plant and is expanding by 13000 tons.The company has little resources by way of cash and it seems strange that a Rs 15 crore company would raise money from the capital markets rather than raising more debt which seems low at around Rs 80 lakhs.Can't find much to say anything positive except that there are no lawsuits pending against the promoters.Here are the negatives.
Omkar Specialty Chemicals was a major disaster for all the investors who decided to gamble on small cap IPO junk.Gambling on FCL in this environment does not make any sense,would make more sense to gamble your money in a casino.In this market you would have a much better chance of returns.
February 10, 2011
India's Infrastructure Sector which was considered the ideal play on India's fast growing GDP and its huge infrastructure requirements long commanded nosebleed valuations.While realty stocks which are closely related to the infra ones had long collapsed after the GFC in 2008 ,the infrastructure stocks had retained their preeminence in the stock market rally.However end 2010 and 2011 has seen a vicious change in their fortunes.Stocks like IVRCL,IRB,Punj Lloyd,L&T,Gammon etc have seen their stock prices nosedive.The stocks have corrected far more than the broader market which has itself fallen more than 15% in 2011. The problems related to the infrastructure stocks are varied and they have converged for investors to totally lose confidence in this sector something akin to the realty sector.The list of the problems are
February 10, 2011
India’s Stock Market has been amongst the worst performing market in the world in 2011 due to a number of converging issues.While Inflation and Interest Rate […]
February 10, 2011
Moser Baer made ambitous plans of making it big in solar energy but has not managed to execute successfully in its plans.Despite pouring millions of dollars into differents parts of solar energy,Moser Baer has failed to make a mark even domestically leave alone globally.However India's JNNSM has given a fresh lease of life to Moser Baer's solar investments.The company has managed to win a number of system projects which will be supplied by its inhouse solar panel production.Now the company is also entering into manufacture of low value add items where competition is expected to be much lower.The company is going to build a 1300 MW Solar Module Junction Box Plant to supply India's fast growing solar capacity.
February 10, 2011
China has repeatedly cropped up in the news for cyberattacks on various governments as well as large multinational companies.While the Chinese government has denied responsibility for these cyberattacks,the evidence continues to grow as large reputed organization have blamed hacking on Chinese origin IP addresses.Note South Korea,USA and India have blamed China for cyberattacks on government computers.Growing cyberwarfare from China has made India start a cyberattack centre of its own reflecting the serious growing nature of these attacks.The recent Stuxnet virus attack on nuclear plants of Iran has been also been blamed on a Chinese attack on India gone wrong.Note cyberattacks are not considered of very serious nature in today's geopolitics and has deniability.This has probably made China to continue with cyberwarfare on countries considered hostile to its interests.
February 10, 2011
In 2010,the Indian Stock Market boomed for junk IPOs with a number of low quality issues raising money.Most of these stocks made no sense from the valuation point of view and were clearly being manipulated by stock market operators in nexus with their promoters.However,it was possible for retail investors to gamble and make money in IPOs by applying and selling on the day the issue listed.If you held on then massive losses were in store as most of the IPOs are trading at less than half of their initial price.Now it seems that even this tactic has gone out of fashion with another low quality IPO Omkar Speciality Chemicals going 50% below its issue price.Note the Indian stock market has falled by more than 15% in the last month or so,with many of the operator driven stocks taking a big hit.This means that these manipulated stocks have little support and would fall to their true value which is a small percentage of their issue price.Hopefully we won't be seeing any more these crappy junk issues for a long time.
February 10, 2011
European companies have largely been absent in the Indian solar energy scene except for Siemens,Areva which are moving aggressively in the whole green energy sector.Note US and Chinese companies have already established solid beacheads in the country.India's solar energy sector is poised for exponential growth in the coming decade further boosted by JNNSM.European home markets are maturing for European companies and India is the rising star,so it is essential that the sales teams of the Europeans get in early.Schott Solar is one of the biggest manufacturer of solar panels in Germany.Though not big on the world stage,Schott Solar is present in large parts of the Solar PV and Solar Thermal Supply Chain.It recently established a JV with Chinese company Hareon and plans to build 700 MW of solar panel capacity in emerging markets around the world.It has won a contract to supply 20 MW of thin film modules to Indian Solar Company Premier Solar with 10 MW of supply in 2010 and 10 MW in 2011.Note Premier Solar is a small company and seems they are building the 20 MW for a state government and not under the JNNSM scheme.Note,Schott is not a big name in solar either and its thin film modules are certainly not famous either so makes a good combination.Solar Energy in India finally sees entry of European companies Abengoa and Schott
February 7, 2011
India's Fast 8-9% GDP Growth has become the envy of the developed world groping with anemic growth rates of 1-2% and rising sovereign debt burdens.Asia led by India and China are the new engines of growth of the global economy.However a close examination of the growth shows the rising strains and inequality.Most of the growth in India has been a jobless one with capital intensive sectors leading the way.While some service sectors like the IT and BPO Industry have also grown at a rapid pace,it has only affected a minuscule portion of the Indian population.The rest continue to wallow in misery and poverty which is reflected in the growth of Naxalism.India's education infrastructure is quite woeful with majority of graduates unemployable.This has led to a growing army of unemployed half education youth fighting to get low end jobs.Unlike China,India's industry forms just 30% of India's GDP and majority are still employed in agriculture.Most of India's service industry too constitutes of low value add,low paying jobs.With growing communication and information,the few good low end jobs on offer leads to a desperate jostling.Public sector jobs in railways,paramilitary are especially lucrative offering job security and a decent social position.This has led to increasing clashes.
February 7, 2011
Indian Stocks Market are a very difficult place to invest despite claims to the contrary which will be made by institutional investors.The all pervasive corruption present amongst most of the company managements makes bottom up stock picking a tough call.Even institutional "smart" investors like Goldman,GMO frequently get tripped by fly by night operators.Market operators blatantly manipulate stocks while the primary market is a "pump and dump" heaven.However the Indian growth story has fooled fund managers from outside to keep investing into the story.I have written in the blog numerous pitfalls present in investing in India.Some of these are coming home to roost as the Indian stock markets have fallen by more than 10% in 2011 despite other markets making new highs.Here are the top 5 Headwinds facing the Indian markets in 2011.
February 7, 2011
The European Solar Companies have found things going tough in 2009 as the solar market changed radically with the Lehman crisis.As the prices of the raw material Polysilicon crashed and Chinese competition increased,these companies started bleeding red ink in a prodigious manner.The high cost structure of these companies with factories in Europe stood naked against the competition.With high debt loads,there was a high change that these companies would go bankrupt.Most of them like Q-Cells,REC started to move manufacturing to Asia while Solarworld moved to Europe.Other smaller companies muddled through.However a spectacular 2010 growth in world solar demand has brought new life into these companies.With capacity constrained,even their higher prices could be absorbed by solar installers.These companies have reported much better 2010 results with Solarworld and REC leading the way.
February 7, 2011
Italian Electricity Regulator really shook the global solar market saying that approximately 6 GW of Solar Installations were done in the country in 2010 up almost 500% from 2010.While 2 GW were installed and connected in 2010,4 GW worth of application were submitted by 50,000 installations which were installed but not connected.This means that that Italy's target of 8 GW in 2020 was almost fully met in 2010 itself.I had written that Italian Solar Feed in Tariff Subsidy Cuts for 2011 will fail to stop the Boom in Solar Demand and the 2020 target would be met much earlier.But 2010 was not in my wildest projection.The combination of high sunlight,high electricity rates,falling solar module prices and attractive feed in tariff by the government has made investing in solar in Italy a hugely profitable venture.So 6 GW is not totally impossible given the massive supply growth seen in solar panels.Every solar company in the world had been shipping to capacity making it a mystery as to what was the source of such demand.Italy might prove to be the answer.
February 7, 2011
These 3 Indian companies DB Realty,Sun TV,Spice Jet have very little to relate to each other.One is a real estate company,one is one of the fastest growing media companies while the third one is one of the biggest low cost airlines in which Wilbur Ross was an investor.The common thread running through these companies is their association with a regional political party in India at the center of a massive billion dollar telecom scam in India.The leader of this party Raja was recently sacked from his post as the telecom minister and has now earned the dubious distinction of becoming the first minister to get jail time from his own government.Corruption Scandals have ruled the roost in the last 6 months frequently leading to huge stock price drops.Small Cap,Mid cap scandals,insider trading,bribery rings have all been documented by this blog which led to huge losses for investors.
February 7, 2011
Switzerland is one of the richest,most developed countries in the world hosting one of the biggest financial centre in the world and home to two of the largest banks UBS and Credit Suisse.Switzerland has been long been regarded as a neutral safe haven for money with the its currency Swiss Franc thought to be a risk averse store of value.Switzerland is known for its excellent banks which provide a high quality of service and safety.But the less publicized fact is why this small mountainous country attracts trillions of dollars in wealth from around the world.Its because of its secrecy laws which don't allow the name of the bank account holder to be revealed unless its proven that it is due to criminal misconduct.This Law has made Switzerland the safe haven for all kinds of criminal wealth including drugs,guns,prostitution,genocide etc.The recent spat between USA and Switzerland over the revealing of US tax evaders brought this anomaly into the open.Switzerland is the only large country to have such a law which promotes crime and tax evasion globally.
February 7, 2011
The Chinese Penetrate the US Solar Utility Market – exclusive playground of First Solar and Sunpower
The US Solar Utility Market has been the preserve of the 2 largest US Solar Module Players Sunpower and First Solar.While other Solar Panel Makers have won small deals,these 2 companies have dominated the US Utility Market so far.Sunpower has been very successful in the commercial,municipal and utility segments winning a huge number of deals even as its residential dominance evaporated.The bigger Chinese solar producers like Trina,Yingli,Suntech had already taken over the residential market in California with their much cheaper prices.Now even the larger utility market is under threat from the low cost companies from Asia.Note upstream producers like LDK and GCL Poly are also targeting the system development market in US through acquisitions and alliances.The 250 MW Sempra Generation solar plant being built in Arizona will source Suntech modules and will be completed by 2013.This is a huge order win by Suntech which is the largest module producer in 2010 and could see other Chinese producers using this as a template to push out Sunpower and First Solar.
January 25, 2011
The Indian government has been rocked by a series of corruption scandals which have been documented in this blog.The scandals have not only touched the political sphere but also the stock markets.The scams have not stopped with new ones being reported almost on a daily basis but no convictions have happened.The corrupt and the guilty keep on going about their business as usual as the Indian ruling party thinks it can cure corruption with words.The Congress Party in its annual meeting had said that removing corruption would become its top priority with expeditious proceedings against public officials in graft cases.However the law has been criticized as having too many loopholes even before being passed.Even the actions of the government does not inspire much confidence.The Commonwealth Games which was a much publicized national corruption scandal has yet to see a single prosecution.The guilty officials have managed to all get bail with the Suresh Kalmadi the scandal in chief goes about his business as the powerful ruler of the Indian Olympic Committee.All the government has done is to remove him from the post of the Chairman of the Organizing Committee of the CG .Note this is already a dead body with the Games over a month ago.Note Kalmadi is a leading party member and despite his obvious corruption the government refuses to move against him.
January 25, 2011
United Kingdom is one the worst countries in the world in terms of its commitment towards Global Warming.Like Canada and USA,UK has been a notable laggard in the Green Energy area.It has one of the smallest percentages of its Energy being derived from clean sources.The government has not changed its policies too much as well despite its "green posturing".Solar FIT cuts which started in April 2010 were put under review by the authorities in as little as 6 months .This was despite only 10 MW of solar installation a month compared to the 500 MW average for Germany.In offshore wind power,UK is regarded as the leader with the largest installed capacity.However the growth in even Wind Energy has been slow and halting.Also offshore wind power is not the most mature of green technologies out there,so don't expect any miracles in Renewable Energy growth through this source.
January 25, 2011
The Spanish Government faces multiple lawsuits over its Royal Decrees which cut the Feed in Tariff for Solar PV Installations Retroactively.These laws were passed in Dec 2010 as part of the comprehensive review of the Renewable Energy Subsidies by the government.While Wind Energy and Solar Thermal Subsidies were changed earlier,the controversy over the Solar PV subsidies had forced the government to delay the change to the last minute.These changes were strongly opposed by the Solar PV Industry Association ASIF which has earlier called the measure as "industry killing".These cuts over the next 3 years would be done through a "backdoor approach" in which the subsidies would be restricted for a only a few hours for the Solar PV plants.
January 25, 2011
India's Fossil Fuel Subsidies have led to a massive growth of the petrol and diesel mafia in the country.India gives subsidies on diesel,kerosene and cooking gas through its state owned petro/gas companies like BPCL,IOCL,HPCL etc.These subsidies have been given for a long time and have led to the growth of a parallel black economy in these products.They not only lead to capital misallocation but also to the massive illegal profits for a few.It is a well known fact that all petroleum pump owners adulterate petroleum ( which power most of the cars) with subsdized diesel and kerosene.This massive racket earns millions of dollars (if not billions) for a network of company officials,pump owners,government bureaucrats and politicians.The mafia is so strong and powerful that it thinks nothing of burning alive a senior police official.The racketeers are so rich and well connected that despite common knowledge nothing gets done about it.
January 25, 2011
Inflation in India is raging at double digit levels as it is in most of the other countries in Asia.While Food Inflation has been hogging the headlines as Onion Prices become costlier than the daily earnings of the majority of Indians,other commodities are becoming expensive as well.Tyre Companies in India have seen their margins and profits collapse on the back of higher natural rubber prices.This is despite the explosive growth being seen in the automobile sector in India.JK Tyres and Ceat reported their quarter results and both were equally bad with stock prices taking a major hit.Consumer giant HLL which is a subsidiary of the Unilever Group and the largest consumer company in India also saw its stock price tumble.HLL too has been hurt by higher input commodity costs.While volume growth was excellent,the margins got compressed as input prices increased faster than output prices.Note the Indian stock market has fallen more than 10% of its peak even as developed markets are seeing higher peaks.Other Asian markets like Indonesia,Thailand and others too have fallen as high inflation hurts the prospects of companies here.The Central Bank in India RBI raised the intrest rates by 25 bps which some consider as too low.Like other central banks in Asia,India too seems helpless to fight the inflationary pressures brought upon by the higher commodity prices fueled by Bernake money printing.
January 13, 2011
The Indian Solar Energy Policy JNNSM has been beset with more than its fair share of problems even before completing its first phase.Despite amibtious plans to set up 20 GW of Solar Energy Capacity by 2022,the Policy Support and Subsidy has come under fire from all directions.The First Phase of JNNSM has auctioned 150 MW of Solar PV Capacity to 30 Developers in blocs of 5 MW each.This led to irrational bidding by mostly unknown and bit players which has led many to question to the ultimate viability of these projects.Note the Solar Thermal Bidding has been equally as disastrous with bidding leading to very low tariffs for the winning developers.