2011
March 8, 2011
Now a senior military officer of the Indian Air Force has been caught taking a bribe of Rs 20000 ( $450) for giving a favored spot to a company for displaying its fares at an exhibition.With their seniors reaping in the moolah through corruption,it has become acceptable to lower level officers to take bribes as well.The venality is spreading at a rapid pace though the Indian system.The Indian government despite being repeatedly rebuked by the courts for their inaction,remains shamelessly unrepentant.With the Indian Defense Forces now also being caught in the corruption tangle,India's external security has also become riskier.
March 8, 2011
It is impossible to buy tickets to cricket matches as all the tickets have been given by the officials to their cronies and colleagues.So if you want to buy a ticket to see a cricket match you can't do that.This has even led to the ICC saying that it will lead to bad relations with sponsors .Note the Minister has cropped up in a number of major scams like the Lavasa Scandal,IPL Scam etc.However his role as an ally supporting the government has made him immune to any prosecution.The Indian Police instead of booking a case against ICC corruption has hit out at fans angry at being denied to see a match as no tickets are sold.India is a Banana Republic except that the Supreme Court manages to occasionally shame the government and bring a culprit or 2 to book
March 7, 2011
Some of the airplanes make a rickety bus in Indian cities seem better while the service staff can be highly rude.Note most of these jobs are secure for life giving very little incentive for the Air Indian employees to improve their performance.As a result you can expect the worst.While a number of PSUs in India have improved tremendously after public listing and liberalization,Air India has seemingly got worse.The company makes massive losses and has to be bailed out by the government.There is total lack of accountability in Air India and little impetus for reform.The government ministers want to keep the Air India to keep milking money.A new panel has now suggest that the government of India keep giving regular billions to keep the airline afloat as it flies to unprofitable routes.Another stupid reasoning because these routes can be easily be auctioned out to the lowest cost private airline.Why the government needs a state owned airline is beyond me as it can easily commandeer the aircraft of private airlines in times of war etc. like the US does.But then how will corrupt ministers make money.
March 7, 2011
CLP India which is a subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Power Company CLP is one of the largest private power generation companies in India The company is the biggest wind farm operator in India with around 450 MW of capacity which it plans to raise by another 50% to around 640 MW.Two New Wind Farms will be built in Jaisalmer in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradhesh.The company will use i WTG supplier Enercon with whom it has long relationship.Note India has seen a sharp jump in Wind Energy growth in 2010 due to state and federal subsidies.With Wind Power forming almost 70% of India's current Renewable Energy Capacity,around 1.5-2 GW of new Wind Capacity will be built each year.CLP plans to add around 200-300 MW every year to keep up its pole position.
March 7, 2011
Coal Demand in India is surging as the power companies set up thermal power plants at an astounding rate to triple the power capacity over the next decade.Soaring Coal Prices have already made the Global Electricity Prices shoot up and its probably going to increase more in the coming decade.China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal accounting almost for the 50% of the world's output at 3 Billion Tons.India is far behind at 400 million tons but will fast catch up given the prodigious rate of power plant building that is happening.The Environment is probably going for a toss as India has allowed "No-Go" Forested Areas to be mined.This plus China and India are importing more and more coal from Australia,South Africa and the USA.The recent looking in Australia saw coal prices shoot up alarmingly.Coal India the world's largest coal producing company recently increased the coal price from its shockingly low price leading cement makers and utilities to raise prices more than 5-10%.While its strange for a green blog to recommend coal stocks,the opportunity does exist over the next 10 years till renewable energy comes to grid parity and policymakers don't come to their senses.Here is a list of coal stocks/companies in India .Note there are not many major private coal companies as in the early 1970s, all privately owned coal producing companies were nationalized under the Coal Mines (Nationalisation) Act.
March 7, 2011
Siemens derives almost 30-35% of its annual 20 Billion Euros in revenues from its Environmental Portfolio.The company is looking to spin out its LED Lighting OSRAM business in an IPO later this year.Siemens has a market capitalization of around $116 billion so doing a simplistic analysis the market cap of its Green Business would be around $35 billion dwarfing the market cap of First Solar or Vestas.
March 7, 2011
Lovable Lingerie is an innerwear textile company that is coming out with a $20 million IPO.Unlike other totally junk issues which are totally hands of market operators,this one seems to have decent fundamentals and the valuation is not too expensive either.The company has managed to sell 6% pre-IPO to Sequioa Capital which is one of the blue blood PE firms in the country.However this should not be an endorsement given that a number of their investments have bombed in the recent mid cap and small cap carnage.Corporate governance and management issues in small companies in India is totally out of control so investing just based on pure fundamentals does not help.Also a number of other companies in the same sector in textiles remain at attractive valuations.That said the company does have good differentiation as it leverages on the fast growing Indian consumer growth story.The company sells Lingerie though top retail outlets like Lifestyle,Shopper's Stop in top Indian metros and has good brand recall.Here are the positives and negatives of the company based on its DRHP.
March 6, 2011
India has around 300,000 Telecom Towers around the country , a large portion of which is not connected to the electricity grid.Another large portion does not have access to reliable electricity implying they have to install backup power systems in order to run without interruptions.Diesel Generators have been the choice of telecom operators despite their high carbon imprint.This is because of the ease of buying and installing diesel generators as well as the lower fuel costs as the government in India heavily subsidizes diesel.Note India's Fossil Fuel Subsidies have led to hundreds of distortions in the economy.Corruption,Pilfering,Adulteration is carried out on a large scale due to government subsidies.In fact a senior government official was burnt alive by the Kerosene Mafia a direct outcome of this subsidy policy.But that is a separate issue.
March 6, 2011
Blackrock the Giant Asset Manger with $3.6 Trillions (yet it is Trillions) has decided to join hands with Irish Company NTR to form a new JV.The purpose of this JV will be to invest directly into cleantech assets and infrastructure.The JV will be a part of the Alternative Energy division of Blackrock which already has $110 billion in cleantech funds.Note NTR is an Irish firm with interest in waste management,ethanol,biomass energy and solar thermal energy.It recently ran into major problems as its subsidiary Tessera Energy faced major delays in implementing 2 Solar Thermal Plants in USA (Imperial Valley and Calico) despite getting US Govt approvals.Tessera problems had a dire effect on the parent company financials resulting in the selling of these 2 solar thermal projects.
March 6, 2011
Rooftop Solar Energy in Australia sees a Boom leading to Subsidy Cut Pressure in Spain,Czech Deja Vu
Other states are looking to do so as well.Like other Solar Subsidy Programs elsewhere in Czech,Germany,Spain,Australia too has seen solar energy costs fall much faster than subsidies.This has led to a boom in solar installations as the returns become very high.These costs are ultimately passed on the customer electricity bills drawing howls from the states.Large Wind Energy Producers like Origin Energy have also seen the prices of RECs decrease so that is not feasible to build new wind farm projects.On top of all this confusion,the Australian government can't make up its mind on a Carbon Tax which will help it to meet the 2020 20% Green Energy Target.
March 6, 2011
India has been trying to build tidal power plants in order to take advantage of around 8 GW of potential tidal wave power capacity potential in India.Note Gujarat has been at the forefront of these efforts with most of the tidal power capacity Gulf of Cambay and Gulf of Kutch.While there have been reports of the go-ahead for these tidal energy plants,nothing concrete has come out of it .Note Tidal Energy is in a very immature stage compared to other forms of Renewable Energy like Solar,Wind and Biomass Energy.Tidal Energy like Wave Energy is still in the demo stage even in developed countries of the West where technology innovation is much higher.
March 6, 2011
A Clean Technology REIT is about to be launched which is going to invest in real estate which generates clean energy.The strategy is simple to invest in properties which have green energy power plants.Note Clean Tech Investing has yielded terrible results for public investors in the last couple of years.The failure of Copenhagen,Cancun Climate Meets and the Lehman crisis has led to a bloodbath for Green Investors.Don't know how successful this strategy will be for I don't know how much alpha a Clean Tech REIT can generate over a normal REIT.However the performance of DLR has been quite awesome over the last few years.
March 6, 2011
There exists a reasonable number of ETFs in the US Stock Market which are dedicated to Clean Technology.However the performance of these ETFs has been quite […]
March 5, 2011
Solar Farms or Giant Solar Power Projects consisting of thousand of solar panels installed on acres of land are increasing rapidly in the USA.While the European governments are discouraging the use of large installations of solar panels,the US is going the opposite way in installing these power plants.The US government recently approved of a number of Solar Thermal Power Projects worth several gigawatt recently.
March 5, 2011
France has had a rocky relationship with solar energy.Unlike other European countries France gets a huge amount of electricity from renewable sources namely nuclear energy.Its electricity prices are one of the lowest and it even exports electricity to neighbors.So the driver for increasing solar electricity is quite low in France compared to others like Spain and Italy.However France has seen a massive boom in solar installations in 2010 making it the 7th largest market in the world.France installed over 720 MW of solar in 2010 and faces a massive backlog of applications.The government got overwhelmed and called a sudden stop to all applications.The French government stupidly blamed Chinese solar panels for the solar deluge when it was its faulty solar Feed in Tariff Policy which was too generous.
March 5, 2011
Note China's Solar Market is a highly competitive and protected one with outside solar companies hardly having any presence similar to Japan's market.First Solar which signed a massive gigawatt contract to build a plant in Ordos has seen only delays as Chinese solar manufacturers opposed the plant.First Solar is still trying to build the plant signing a new JV with one of China's 5 big utilities.eSolar another CSP company got a contract to build a plant with China but till date construction does not seem to have begun there also.The Chinese government seems mostly interested in high-tech technology (First Solar,eSolar) rather than run of the mill players.Even these technology companies have failed to make much headway.Remains to be seen whether SkyFuel Succeeds.
March 5, 2011
I have been consistently writing that Solar PV has leapfrogged far ahead of Solar Thermal Technology in the last couple of years.The entry of the low cost Chinese with huge scale and the fall in polysilicon costs have suddenly made the future survival of Solar Thermal Technology suspect.The Solar Thermal Advantages of energy storage is also overrated because it is cheaper to add energy storage to Solar PV as the following article shows.Note Solar PV has many other advantages of Solar Thermal anyway.The Rapidly Declining Costs of Solar PV in fact pose a massive threat to all other forms of Solar Technology including Thin Film which has recently seen a number of players gone bankrupt.The recent conversion of Solar Thermal Plants by Tessera,the losses being made by Solar Millenium due to delays are further evidence of the decline and possible obsolescence of Solar Thermal Technology.
March 5, 2011
Indian Privately Owned Power Utilities are furiously expanding their capacities as India looks to treble its Power Generation Capacity in the next decade.The major power companies like Adani Power and Reliance Power are giving Tata Power a tough fight for the position of the biggest private Indian Utility.While these companies cannot hope to overtake state owned giant NTPC in this decade,they may do so in the next one.Note some of these companies are expected to grow almost 20 times in the next 10 years.Here are the main contenders
Note most of the power plants being built in India are coal ones with the power providers aggressively buying up coal mines in Indonesia,Australia and South Africa to increase fuel security.However in case of any global disruptions,India remains very vulnerable.However India's policymakers are sleeping on this issue.It makes more sense to concentrate on those sources whose fuel security is high such as solar and wind power.Coal also faces the prospect of high carbon taxation as global warming becomes acute.Environmental issues related to power plants has already resulted in some being halted as local citizens agitate against the thermal plant's negative effects on livelihoods and health.
March 5, 2011
While I was tearing my hair out at the experience there were a couple of very funny episodes which highlights the complete lack of service quality
1) One of the Tata Indicom Engineers after seeing my laptop connect automatically to the neighbour's WiFi (I was using it temporarily) said that my Tata Indicom Internet was working fine (how the guy became an engineer seems a mystery,guess there is truth to industry studies that most Indian graduates are unemployable)
2) A Tata Indicom Webstie to give Customer Feedback on submission constantly gives an Error .The link (https://ttslemc.tatatel.co.in/EMC_FEEDBACK/TataIndicomFeedBackDetails.do?messageID=3727423) which was sent to me to "valuable inputs will go a long way in helping us deliver world class services" still does not work.Readers can try out the link also.
March 4, 2011
The Indian Government’s launch of the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission(JNNSM) was done with much fanfare with a target of reaching 20 GW of Solar Capacity by 2022 under 3 phases from the 81 MW currently.While the government had the best intentions and had laid down a well defined 10 year plan with subsidy support for both Solar Thermal and Solar PV Technology,it has already run into problems.Due to high interest the government went in for bidding of projects which led to irrationally low bidding from unknown firms.This has put the entire exercise in question with the the biggest private utility saying JNNSM is a failure.Without extensions of deadlines it looks highly unlikely whether the 37 winners will actually put up the plants.
March 4, 2011
Income Inequality and unemployment amongst white collar workers is a massive growing under-appreciated problem in India and China.These countries despite growing tremendously have built in severe distortions which are only becoming bigger by the day.Graduates in both countries increasingly find a massive demand deficit for their services while income inequality grows bigger as billionaires build billion dollar houses amidst people earning less than $2 day.
March 4, 2011
Corruption in India seems to be throwing up a new character everyday with almost all the major institutions - judiciary,executive,corporates,bureaucrats,media being tainted by it.The latest to join the corruption bandwagon is the US Food MNC Kraft specifically its subsidiary Cadbury.Note Carbury is one the biggest chocolate brands in India and has been present in the Indian market for a long time.The Corruption Charges are said to be in minor in nature as SEC is probing whether Cadbury gave bribes to set up a manufacturing plant in India.I would be surprised if they managed to set up a plant in India without giving a bribe.India's bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt and the venality has only increased despite numerous scams and scandals being exposed.
March 4, 2011
The MarketWatch news column quotes a Citigroup analysis note that says that the Korean Stock Index Kospi level of 1960 incorporates an oil barrel prices of more than $115 .This is quite absurd since the stock market valuation at any point of time is a hugely complex function of a variety of structural,sentimental,cyclical factors.I have no doubt that the writers of the piece have done extensive analysis but the conclusion is so patently foolish that it earns the "Stupid Financial Analysis of the Day" award.
March 4, 2011
Solar Inverters are a crucial component of the overall solar system accounting for around 10% of the overall costs.Solar inverters connect the solar panels to the grid converting the DC to AC which is used by the grid.Solar inverters have become highly sophisticated with features like optimization and monitoring etc.The efficiency of solar inverters are a major factor in their purchase as well as the quality and reliability.Inverters comes in various sizes and can be as large as 1 MW for utility applications.Unlike Solar Panels,the Solar Inverter Market is much less crowded though competition is growing as the size of the market increases rapidly.The ~$2.1 billion market in 2009 with 7 GW of installations has increased by more than 130% to around $5 billion in 2010 as the solar panel demand globally increased to around 17 GW.Note Solar Inverter Companies have done much better as competition is much lower and the annual price declines in solar inverters has been much lower at around 10% compared to the 50% decline in solar panel in the last 2-3 years.Here is a list of the major solar power inverter companies
March 3, 2011
German Development Bank Kfw which is owned by the German government is planning to invest 800 million Euros in Indian Renewable Energy Sector.Note Kfw is one of the biggest funding institutions in Germany for renewable energy projects giving concessional interest rates.The Bank will use its extensive expertise in the alternative energy and energy efficiency areas to extend its business in India as well.Renewable Energy in India is expected to see a massive expansion in the next decade and will require massive amounts of debt and equity.Kfw alongwith other developmental institutions like ADB and World Bank have a big role to play.Note Debt is quite expensive in India and these institutions provide loans at a much cheaper rate making renewable energy projects viable.ADB has already formed a JV with NTPC and is looking to rescue JNNSM as well.IFC is funding numerous clean projects in India following its developmental mandate as well.
March 3, 2011
India may uses the planned $500 million to $1 Billion in Coal Taxes it expects to generate every year to build transmission lines for renewable energy.Note one of the main impediments for renewable energy is the lack of transmission capability on part of utilities to move clean energy from remote areas to urban demand centres.USA faces an acute problem in this regard and faces a massive debate on how to fund the power grid from windy areas to cities.India too faces a problem in this regard as renewable energy plants mainly wind and solar are to built in remote locations.Note India's Power Grid is very inadequate as large parts of the country lack electricity due to lack of distribution networks.
March 3, 2011
India is set to see a massive growth in solar energy in the next decade with the 81 MW of Solar Capacity expected to reach at least 20000 MW by 2022 if not more.India's JNNSM Policy and push for renewable energy by states like Gujarat,Maharashtra and Rajasthan should see massive investments in solar PV installation.While there are already solar cell and panel production,India lacks a strong base for manufacture of solar inverters which can cost upto 10% of the total cost of a solar project.
March 3, 2011
Alternative Energy in India saw significant growth in 2010 with the last 9 months of the year seeing capacity additions of 1800 MW which is almost 10% of the total installed capacity of 18500 MW.The growth in renewable energy was led by Wind Energy which forms almost 70% of the total renewable energy capacity in the country at around 13500 MW.The strong incentives given by both state and central government has led to the sharp growth of wind energy.Note Wind Energy is quite close to Gas based electricity price.India Needs at least 68 GW of Renewable Energy Capacity by 2020 to meet its RPS target of 15% set by CERC (note this is capacity only not hours of electricity).
March 3, 2011
Juwi,the German Renewable Energy EPC Company is setting up base in India following on the footsteps of other major Europeans companies Scott and Abengoa.Juwi is one of the largest solar EPC companies in the world with 800 million Euros in Revenues in 2010 and with operations in 15 countries.Note India's solar energy opportunity is one of the biggest in the 21st century and the number of solar companies has exploded.Other International Solar EPC Companies and Solar System Integrators like SunEdison have made major commitments to the Indian market.Juwi is looking at both setting up turnkey plants as well as O&M.Indian domestic companies suffer from a lack of experience in the solar development sector and entry of international companies should help disseminate best practices in solar project development and execution.
March 3, 2011
Solar Energy is the only form of Energy whose costs are continuously declining compared to other forms of Energy.This is one of the biggest advantages of Solar Power over other renewable and non-renewable forms of energy.Solar Energy costs have declined by over 50% in the last 2-3 years even as Coal,Oil,Gas and other Energy costs have gone up.While Wind Energy costs have declined in the last year the overall trend is increasing as the costs of copper and steel go up.This is one of the main reasons why solar energy demand has gone up by 150% in 2010.With solar costs going down by another 10% each year over the next few years,expect Solar Energy to grow at a further fast rate in the future as well after growing at 50% CAGR over the last decade.Here are some of the advantages of Solar Energy over other non-renewable energy forms