Thin Film Technology came into prominence with Polysilicon Prices ruling at $400/kg
Solar Thin Film Technology is supposed to be the 2nd Generation successor to the mainstream Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) Technology which accounts for around 85% of world production.With Polysilicon(c-Si raw material) being priced at an exorbitant $400/kg in 2008 (cost of $30/kg) due to supply shortages,many companies entered the Thin Film space attracted by the huge profits in the solar industry.Applied Materials with its SunFab turnkey amorphous silicon (a-Si) equipment capitalized on this opportunity, lining up a number of customers with some customer orders in the range of a Billion Dollars.Oerlikon Solar was the other major thin film equipment market winning customers in Europe and China.Sky high poly prices also gave birth to numerous Thin Film startups planning to Manufacture and Use their own equipment rather than selling it .
Polysilicon Prices crashed to $50/kg turning Business Models Upside Down
With the Polysilicon prices crashing by almost 90% in the intervening 2 years (due to entry of multiple players) to $50/kg at present,most of these business models have become defunct.With the exception of market leader First Solar,no other thin film player has managed to penetrate the top 15 solar croducer rankings.Most of the thin film divisions of larger companies have already been written off while smaller startups are struggling to survive with mainstream c-Si module prices down by more than 50%.
Weaker Companies/Divisions that are seeing Tough Times/Gone out of Business
Thin Film Technology Survivors have Huge Potential
Despite problems besetting the majority of the thin film industry there are bright spots for Thin Film Technology.First Solar with its CdTe technology is the world’s largest producer of solar modules with the lowest cost.Sharp is still committed to its a-Si plant in Japan while other smaller startups continue to ramp up.Miasole made a major splash announcing a record breaking 13.8% efficiency thin film module which it will ship in 2011 .Solyndra and Nanosolar are other hyped startups though their business models are yet to be validated.There are also Abound Solar,GE backed Primestar and Q-Cells Solibro that have strong potential to compete with c-Si technology.Thin Film Technology has greater potential for technology improvements and cost reduction than c-Si technology but it will take 3-4 years before this technology matures enough to replace the older c-Si Technology.
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[…] of Applied Materials SunFab Amorphous Silicon Thin Film Equipment.That Division has been closed and Moser Baer’s investment has been written off as well.It also invested in a small polysilicon producer which also closed down.With the Chinese module […]
[…] Polysilicon Prices were quite high at $400/kg.With prices crashing to $50/kg in 2009 and 2010,these Technology Suppliers ran into a lot of problems.CPV is making a comeback as traditional c-Si based cells are reaching the upper limit of their […]
[…] invested in.However the 2009 Crash brought down the price to $50/kg killing many of the companies.Thin Film Industry saw a major shakeout with Applied Materials killing its SunFab Division.However recent upturn in demand has led to some […]
[…] falling costs of the mainstream Photovoltaic Crystalline Silicon Technology.While a number of Weaker Hands in Thin Film have downed shutters,Thin Film Producers continue to grow and expand.The massive growth potential of Solar Energy makes […]