Abu Dhabi has got the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with asset of over $600 Billion.The small emirate which is a part of the larger United Arab Emirates is one of the richest countries in the world due to its Oil Riches.The country had made ambitious Renewable Energy Plans setting up a Fund/Company dedicated to its Green Ambitions called Masdar.The Company has faced a number of reverses as it tried a number of things all at once in a new industry.Its “Jack of All Trades” Strategy has proven to be a failure as it lost/fired a number of top executives.Its Solar Plans have also come up a cropper as Thin Film Technology has faced a lot of reverses in recent times.The Company has tried to change tactics by concentrating now on Solar Thermal Technology partnering with Abengoa and Total in building a CSP plant near Abu Dhabi.With its Renewable Energy Arm facing a number of reverses,its plan for a futuristic,zero carbon Green Masdar City has also been scaled down.
Constellation Energy has become the latest USA Utility to cancel its proposed new nuclear energy plant to be built in Maryland.Despite a Loan Guarantee from Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the US Green Stimulus,Constellation has found the economics of the Nuclear Reactors as unworkable.In fact this is keeping with the trend of other utilities in the Developed World who have found New Nuclear to be too expensive.While a number of cyclical factors are at play (Wind Energy has also been affected) in hindering the development of these plants,it seems a secular shift has occured.Finland has become the poster boy of a Nuclear Project Disaster with the main developer Areva bleeding from losses as time and cost overruns have almost doubled.The increaseing costs of environment and safety regulations has increase manifold since the last spurt of nuclear energy construction in the 1980s.The Nuclear Renaissance has proven to be a complete failure in the Western Countries.While China continues with its aggressive Nuclear Expansion plans,construction in the US has come to a virtual halt.Exelon which is the largest Nuclear Energy Operator in the USA has also halted developed of 2 new reactors in Texas.These Utilities have said that they need much higher energy prices and a carbon tax before going ahead with reaction construction.Note Exelon recently bought a Wind Energy Operator as Solar/Wind become the favored Green Energy choices.
A US expert has said that India was the target of the Stuxnet Attack rather than Iran.India’s Insat 4B Communications Satellite suffered from a malfunction recently and it used the same Siemens software which was the target of this Worm Attack.India has been subject to Chinese cyberwarfare attacks in the past .This has led to a general wariness in the Indian Establishment over Chinese origin companies like Huawei operating in India.Tensions between Indian and China have been rising over a range of issues such as territory,supply of arms and nuclear reactors to Pakistan and construction of military bases around India.The failure of an Indian Communications Satellite without any explicit attack done surreptitiously by Chinese hackers does not seem far fetched.Nothing would be clearly known to the general public given the clandestine nature of these cyberwarfare between nation states.However India’s decision to bolster its cyberwarfare capabilities and the recent decision by Google to abandon China,all point to China using cyberattacks as an instrument of statecraft.
Coal India is coming out with India’s biggest IPO offering in the Stock Market History.The company seems fundamentally strong on almost all aspects and is also pricing itself at a significant discount to its global peers.Both superficially and deep down,the analysis points CIL to be a very safe investment at a cheap valuation.Other analysts are also coming to the same conclusion,as Rating Agency has given CIL a 5/5 Rating which is probably the first in the history of IPO Grading .In order to give a more balanced perspective and avoid herd tendencies,I am listing out what the risks and negatives are with this company.Note this does not make me negative on the stock on which I am very positively biased.It is just to give investors the other side of the debate which I think general analysis will lack.
Despite the above Risks , I think that Coal India is one of the best quality stocks to come out in India’s Primary Markets.However investors should be wary of the risks which will be glossed over by the mainstream media and brokerages . As with every investment however safe it might look,there are risks.This does not mean that investors should be fearful of every investment.It is by being aware of the risks,that prudent risk management can be done which is essential to successful investing.
In the last 4-5 years, the real estate investment community seems to have been a victim of optimism bias. This is most exemplified in the severe under estimation of time/duration required for construction/operation of project investments. For fund managers who have made investments in major parts of Asia (China, Vietnam, India, Indonesia) in the last 4-5 years, under estimation of timelines is the one area in which they all concede to have erred. The experience has shown how easy it is to fall into the optimism bias trap and start believing that once the finance is secured and the contracts awarded, things just roll on in an automode. Following are some of interesting reasons (these are all true) by which projects have gone significantly delayed
It is believed that the only section of the population that isn’t susceptible to the optimism bias are people with major depressive disorder. Probably funds should consider hiring some of them.
Mazda the Japanese Automobile Producer has decided to double the R&D spending on EcoFriendly Vehicles over the next 5 years.The Company has decided to up the percentage spend on Green Automobile Technology to 40% by 2015 from 20% at present.This implies almost $450 million in annual R&D spend on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles.Mazda has been a latecomer to the new generation Green Automobiles.Like Honda,Mazda trails Toyota and Nissan in the EV and Hybrid Car Technology.
Mazda has already tied up with Toyota to fast track the development of Hybrid Vehicles,the first one which it plans to introduce by 2013.Note Honda and Toyota have already introduced Hybrid Cars and Mazda will face tough competition as it is a latecomer to the Hybrid Party.Other AutoMakers around the world like Hyundai,GM,Ford,Geely,BYD are already well on the way to introducing Green Cars.