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New Secular Bull Market or a Cyclical Bull within a Secular Bear

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The recent sharp correction in the S&P and other US indices has been the biggest since the March 2009 Rally.The US and other Global Stock Markets have rallied between 70-100% on average along with other “risky assets” like Commodities,Junk Bonds,Emerging Market Currencies etc.However the Greek Contagion has led to a steep fall with S&P down over  10% in a month. There are arguments to be made on both sides about whether we are in a Cyclical Bull Market in a Secular Bear Market . The US Treasury Bonds and Gold prices indicate that people are still skeptical of the Secular Bull Market Thesis .However the improvement in Economic indicators in Asia,Latam and North America indicate that we might be coming out of the most severe Economic Crisis after the Great Depression.In my opinion the developed world consisting of US and Europe will be still mired in below par growth for the next few  years while Emerging Markets in Asia ,Latam and Africa will head to new Bull Markets.Here are some opinions on where are going.

Barton Biggs Says Stock Market Set to ‘Pop’ in Days  – Bloomberg

U.S. stock markets are oversold and may rally strongly over the next few days, said investor Barton Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP.”I think they’re going to stabilize in this general area, and then we’re going to have a significant move to the upside,” Biggs, whose flagship fund returned three times the industry average last year, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Biggs recommended buying U.S. stocks last year when benchmark indexes sank to the lowest levels since the 1990s. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 23 percent in 2009 as governments worldwide mounted stimulus programs to counter a recession. On March 22 this year, Biggs told Bloomberg TV U.S. stocks had the potential to rally a further 10 percent. The S&P 500 has since shed 8.4 percent.

Eric Sprott Says S&P 500 Index Slump Just Starting – Bloomberg

The month long slump that’s erased 12 percent from the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is the beginning of a collapse that will drive the measure below its weakest level of 2009 in the next year, money manager Eric Sprott said.“Our thesis is we’re in for a long, deep cycle, and we’ve thought that since 2000, but up to this point, governments and central banks have always tried to stave it off,” Sprott, manager of the Sprott Canadian Equity Fund, said yesterday in his Toronto office. With budget deficits surpassing 10 percent of gross domestic product in Ireland, Greece, the U.K. and Spain, and the U.S. at 9.3 percent, policy makers have no choice but to pare spending, threatening economic growth, he added.

Sprott continues to favor precious metals as a haven. On March 31, gold and silver accounted for 34 percent of the net asset value of the Canadian Equity Fund, with reseller Gold Wheaton Gold Corp. of Vancouver the top equity holding.While both gold and the U.S. dollar have gained this month as investors shy from risk, only the former will continue to advance as the crisis deepens, Sprott said.“The debt, the deficits are enormous. The industrial capacity has been gutted,” he said of the U.S. “One cannot make a positive story for it other than some temporary trading phenomenon because something else is uglier than the dollar.”

Mobius Buys BRIC Stocks, Sees Bull Market Continuing – Bloomberg

Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said he’s been buying stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China in the past month and called the slump in emerging-economy shares a “correction” in a bull market.“The fear of contagion into the developed countries is definitely there which is why I believe Europe and the U.S. have acted in concert to try and stem this situation,” Mobius said. “I think it’s been enough.”


Sneha Shah

I am Sneha, the Editor-in-chief for the Blog. We would be glad to receive suggestions, inputs & comments on GWI from you guys to keep it going! You can contact me for consultancy/trade inquires by writing an email to

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