India has become the latest country to join in the bashing of Renminbi undervaluation saying it leads to a massive advantage for Chinese exporters.A research paper from India’s Central Bank says that its artificially boosts China giving it a competitive advantage over Indian exports.Note Brazil another one of the famed BRIC quartet has too been complaining about Chinese imports swamping its industry.Note Brazil has seen massive currency appreciation in recent years due to a combination of high interest rates and strong economic fundamentals.

India is also growing concerned about the growing trade deficit with China which totals almost $19 billion.Note it is the same like Brazil where machinery and low tech non commodity imports are killing their domestic industries.The paper calls that India should reduce dependence on Chinese imports which has gone up to 10.7 per cent during 2009-10 from 7.3 per cent five years ago.To avoid the implications in terms of imports, there is a strong need to diversify imports of these items.

The pressure on the Chinese to appreciate the yuan keeps growing by the day.Earlier strong US pressure had made China appreciate its currency by a few percentage points as the US Congress threatened to bring legislation against China labelling it as a currency manipulator.

India being hurt by undervalued yuan: RBI

China’s policy to keep its currency, the renminbi or yuan , artificially undervalued gives it a huge economic advantage and impacts India’s trade, says a research paper released by the Reserve Bank.

In the paper, ‘The Implications of Renminbi Revaluation on India’s Trade’, S Arunachalaramanan and Ramesh Golait of the RBI have said that an artificially undervalued currency gives China a distinct advantage in the export market.

“By keeping renminbi (RMB) undervalued against the US dollar (USD) and depreciating it in line with the USD in the international market without taking into account the economic fundamentals of China, it invariably and distinctly provides competitive advantage over its trade competitors and trade partners including India,” the paper said.

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The Dollar has been declining at a fast clip over the last month or so over concerns that the US Fed will unveil a  second round of Quantitative Easing with figures of $1 Trillion being quoted.This has led to sharp appreciation of currencies around the world with some like the Malaysian Ringitt touching an all time high.Japan which depends on its exporters for propping up its debt laden,deflating economy has intervened in the currency markets after a 6 year hiatus.The Japanese sold around $20 billion in the open market to devalue the yen after it touched a 13 year high.The Japanese companies like Hitachi and others were literally crying for devaluation as they are still doing now.The Intervention has led to increased fears of bad blood between countries each of which is trying to export its way out of trouble.Japan and China relations are becoming frosty with Chinese buying of JGBs.The US has remained silent of the Japanese move with the domestic politicians concentrating on bashing the Chinese over their currency peg.Germany is enjoying a golden year with Euro depreciating sharply against other currencies due to the Greek Contagion.However that seems short lived as the Dollar starts depreciating again.

Emerging Countries rapidly joing the Intervention Club

Brazil,Peru,Colombia and now South Korea have all joined the “Buy Dollar and Sell Local Currency” Club.The Brazilian Real has appreciated by 34% in the last 2 years while similar stories lie behind Peru and Colombian interventions as well.With yields at near zero,Developed World Investors are pouring money into debt,equity and commodities fueling  some of the Emerging Markets to all time highs.Some of the valuations like the Indian market are already stretched with local investors shunning the bubble markets.Countries with large Export Sectors like South Korea are particularly sensitive to currency appreciation and are joining in the chaos that the currency markets have become.The $4 Trillion Currency Markets are too big for a single country to take on as the Swiss found out losing Billions of Dollars in the process.The Currency Chaos is set to persist as the Financial System has become Unstable with Huge Debts,Moral Hazard and Central Bank Meddling.Gold has touched an all time high of $1300 with Silver following closely.With such volatility in Currencies,Business has become quite difficult with faith in currencies eroding at a fast pace.

Real Falls as Sovereign Wealth Fund Approved to Buy Dollars – Businessweek

Brazil’s real fell for a second day after the government authorized its sovereign wealth fund to start purchasing foreign currencies such as the dollar.Brazil’s sovereign wealth fund has “no limit” on investing in such currencies, the Treasury said in an e-mailed statement. Finance Minister Guido Mantega last week vowed to take measures to prevent the real from strengthening further after the currency rose 33.6 percent since the beginning of 2009.

Peru’s Central Bank Intervenes In Foreign Exchange Market, Buys $121 Mln – WSJ

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru intervened in the foreign-exchange market Thursday to buy $121 million at an average of PEN2.7889 per U.S. dollar.The central bank has been purchasing dollars regularly since June 18, intervening to smooth out volatility in the exchange market. Peru’s sol has been on an appreciating trend recently due in part to strong inflows of capital. On Wednesday the central bank bought $241 million and on Tuesday it bought $20 million.

Colombia Central Bank To Restart Buying Dollars – WSJ

The Colombian central bank restarted buying U.S. dollars in the currency market Wednesday, a move designed to halt the ascent of the peso, which threatens to undermine some key sectors of the economy.he announcement had been widely expected as the peso has been on a tear and traded earlier this week at its strongest level in two years. Pressure on the monetary authority grew after the peso breached the COP1,800 mark last week.

The peso has strengthened 13% against the dollar so far this year and ranks as one of the top-performing currencies in the world. Authorities have blamed the weakness of the dollar in international markets and a massive influx of foreign direct investment into Colombia, which this year is expected to reach $10 billion, for the peso’s surge.

Bank of Korea reportedly intervenes to curb won – Marketwatch

South Korean authorities bought dollars Monday to curb the won’s rise to a four-month highs, according to reports citing foreign-exchange traders.

The U.S. dollar was buying 1,148.2 won, after falling as low as 1,146.0 won earlier, its lowest since mid-May. The central bank was said to have entered the market around the 1,148.0 won level, and may have bought between 500 million and $700 million.

Lithium has been claimed to be  the “new oil” with a new dedicated ETF recently launched to take advantage of the investor interest in this area.Lithium which was virtually unused in any application until the 1990′s come into prominence after Sony introduced the first Lithium based batteries.Since then the usage of Lithium has grown by leaps and bounds with the production of this metal virtually doubling in the last 3-4 years and prices going up to $7000/ton.

Why Lithium Usage has skyrocketed

Lithium usage has increased exponentially with the proliferation of electronic devices which use lithium batteries.A common home might have an average of 10 Lithium Batteries in devices such as cell phones,laptops,cameras etc.However the main driver of Lithium Demand comes from the advent of Electric Vehicles.These automobiles use  a hundred times more lithium than a cellphone as the power requirements for a vehicle are considerably larger.A slew of companies have grown developing innovative Lithium Ion Technologies to power EVs.A123 Systems,Electrova,Altair,Ener1 are some of the prominent companies while old stalwarts like Panasonic,Toshiba,LG are also making huge investments into building Lithium Battery factories.

Geographical Distribution of Lithium

Lithium deposits are mainly mined from brine deposits found in arid deserted areas primarily found in South America.Chile is the largest producer of this mineral with estimated  35% of the world’s production and the biggest reserves.Argentine and Bolivia are also suspected to have big reserves though Bolivia produces very little currently.China is also a big producer but with higher costs,recently is deposits have been discovered in Tibet.USA which used to be the biggest producer 10 years ago is a marginal producer now.Estimates of Lithium reserves range from  10 million tons to 100 million tons depending on who you listen to.The size and the price it can be extracted is not known correctly since lots of countries like Russia,China don’t reveal the reserves.

Chile the only country to restrict Lithium Mining

Chile is the only country in the world to restrict mining of Lithium putting in quotas for companies.It has made Lithium a strategic commodity preventing large scale extraction.SQM and Rockwood Holdings are the 2 companies which have leases on Chile’s “Salars” to mine lithium.These producers are the largest Lithium companies in the world and have seen their share prices continuously moving upwards as interest goes in the  “new oil”.SQM is a Chilean owned company which has sizable agricultural  and mining interests.It has asked the government to increase its quota which is already 30% of the world’s production.Chile has been moving towards opening up the Lithium Sector to allow more companies in .Toyota has a JV to mine lithium in Chile to safeguard supply to its future EVS.

Is “Peak Lithium” Possible in the Future

Some analysts have said that massive growth in the EV industry will lead to a situation of “Peak Lithium” and shortages in the near future.This will lead to much higher prices,however this has been refuted by companies like SQM which  have said that potential global reserves are 100 million tons enough to power 2 billion vehicles.Though I can’t comment on the reserves situation,I don’t think the “Peak Lithium” is a possibility.The reasons are as the following

  1. Substitutes to Lithium Batteries like NiMH already exist and are providing a stiff competition
  2. Electric Vehicles are not economical today and may not be so for the next 10 years.The whole media hype might die down just like 2000
  3. As Prices move higher,Lithium extraction from wastewater and other sources will become feasible leading to decreases supply
  4. Newer Deposits are sure to be found as prices increase.Chile has 10 more salars,Bolivia has huge unknown deposits,China and Russia may also announce huge discoveries.