China has reported the first decrease in its forex reserves in a qtr since the 1998 crisis. The Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves which are humongous at over $4 trillion has shown a $100 billion decrease in Nov and Dec 2012 .While the sharp decrease in the Euro may account for some change , there is also anecdotal evidence that the hot money is flowing out of China . Note earlier Hot Money was pouring into China given the potential of yuan appreciation but with the potential of a Chinese Hard Landing ,the opposite may be happening . China has a distorted economy heavily dependent on exports and investment for growth . However changed macro economic conditions make this model unsustainable . How China manages to transition out of this investment export fueled condition is an open question . That they must is in no doubt nor the fact that China’s 10% GDP growth days are definitely over.

Chinese Trade Partners USA and Europe can no longer manage the massive deficits and strains are rising with some goods already facing disputes .Most famous is the Solar Panels while other Goods like Wind Turbines, Cars etc. have also seen signs of a Trade War. China under huge pressure appreciated the yuan by around 8% in 2011 from the US. In the current scenario when the profit margins of the small industries in China evaporting and potential for unreset (already happening ) , the situation remains dangerous . A Hard Landing not out of the question and people betting on it have already made money in 2011 without any serious decline happening till now.

China also faces a major change in 2012 with the top leadership of the country going to new leaders and the old set will go away.This means new policies and directions amidst major challenges to the Chinse economy and society.

China faces multiple challenges in 2012

1) Slowdown in Europe and USA means that their exports are sputtering and manufacturing has already started contracting

2) Protests in cities and villages grows against rampant corruption and land grabbing by Communist officials.Lack of democracy means violent protests at times.

3) Debt is becoming a huge problem with local government vehicles facing trouble as they can no longer raise money from real estate sales which has fallen by 20-25%

4) Massive industrial overcapacity is being exported outside.This has made the other trading nations put duties and curbs.A big trade war with USA cannot be ruled out.Chinese solar and wind products faced countervailing duties and dumping charges.China has already imposed high duties on US car imports.


China will take measure to stabilize its exports and imports as slowing global growth creates a “grim situation” for trade, said Zhang Xiaoqiang, a vice chairman at the nation’s top economic planning agency.

“Downward risks for the global economy are increasing,” the National Development and Reform Commission’s Zhang said at a forum in Beijing today. “The difficult situation will make competition for product exports among countries fiercer.” China will take steps to stabilize and improve trade policy, including the lowering of import taxes for some consumer goods, helping smaller businesses get financing and keeping its currency “basically stable,” he said.

China FE reduction

China’s foreign-exchange holdings reached a record $3.27 trillion in October and then fell in the following two months, the central bank data showed, indicating a decrease of $92.6 billion in November and December.

Much of the decline may be due to a lower value of the reserves held in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, said Cui Li, a Hong Kong-based economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc who previously worked at the International Monetary Fund.

China’s solar market growth has hit the rocket phase in late 2011 with the announcement of the long awaited national Feed in Tariff . Many of the Chinese utilities have set up large solar farms utilizing the cheap solar panels produced by Chinese solar panel companies. Note Chinese solar companies are the dominant players in the world having almost killed the western solar industry in the last couple of years. With cheap costs and massive government support, China is almost ruling the solar industry globally . In the domestic Chinese market they have even a bigger advantage given the local home conditions and preference of domestic companies . Note China become home to the biggest wind turbine companies when China enacted the domestic content requirements in 2006. With the solar industry , the Chinese government does not need this law as its companies already possess massive advantages over the foreign competition.

Note the only large project in Ordos which was awarded to US solar company First Solar is gathering dust in the last couple of years. This project was opposed by major local panel makers like Trina, Yingli and others. With First Solar the cheapest solar panel producer in the world itself unable to compete in China, there is absolutely no hope for the competition. With expectation that Chian will become the largest solar market in 2012 , foreign solar companies can draw no succour.

First Solar’s Showpiece 2000 MW Solar Plant in Inner Mongolia gets Stalled by Chinese Protectionism

.This was hyped by the Chinese and USA media as the dawn of a new cooperation with the world’s two biggest economies in the Green Energy area.However,its already August 2010 and there is no sign of any activity.Washington Post has reported that the Inner Mongolian Government has having second thoughts about the building of the plant.Note China is already being acknowledged as the CleanTech Leader by US companies with even world class companies like Honda scouting China for Battery Technology.China’s low cost solar panel producers like Yingli,Trina and Suntech have captured a huge amount of global marketshare from the US and European companies.Some of these companies have lobbied the Ordos government to put the huge project on tender rather than just awarding it to First Solar.Note First Solar has not managed to get a FIT deal from the Chinese despite numerous attempts.China’s Solar Projects generally see Cutthroat Competition with negative investor returns

Will China Dominate Global Wind like it is dominating Solar ; Europeans bleed while Chinese capture marketshare

In wind energy , China’s growth over the last 2-3 years has been awesome with more than 100% CAGR . It has helped in growing wind turbine manufacturers through domestic content requirements.Now that these companies have sufficient technology and are able to leverage their low cost advantages , China has removed the restrictions in Jan 2010 to attack other markets. Vestas the leading European turbine manufacturer like the solar makers has fallen into the red. The only way for these companies to survive is to move their manufacturing to Asia . Ultimately the technology will also follow ( Applied Materials has also move its R&D to Shanghai). Just like the semi and electronics industry,Europe will start looking like a marginal player in the global alternative energy industry. Despite strong domestic  demand and policy support , the European industry has been outsmarted and outplayed by  the Chinese.

China raises Solar Energy Capacity Target to 50 GW from 20 GW in 2020

China’s Solar Panel Manufactures have enjoyed a massive boom phase though domestic solar electric capacity has failed to keep up.China has been rewriting its renewable energy plan  in the wake of the Fukushima Nuclear Energy Disaster in Japan.Note there has been a strongglobal backlash against nuclear energy around the world and 7 nuclear plants in Germany have been closed all but in name.Other countries like South Korea,Italy,Switzerland are rethinking of what do about their nuclear reactors giving the massive tail risks with nuclear generation.China had a target of only  20 GW of solar by 2020 has decided to raise the target by  150% to 50 GW according to the country’s leading energy planning authority NDRC.Note China installed more than 15 GW of Wind Energy in 2010 alone becoming the world’s largest Wind Energy Market by far.Solar Energy strongly lags Wind in China despite China having the biggest solar panel manufacturing industry in the world.Its Golden Sun and other Solar Subsidy programs have been small in absolute terms compared to its huge electricity capacity.Note Wind Power in China has reached a saturation level with almost 18 GW installed in 2010 ,with such a high level further growth looks quite difficult.

The massive solar panel glut has not only caused Western solar companies to go bankrupt but has also caused mayhem in the Chinese solar panel industry.Many of the smaller companies have seen their utilization go down to 35% or lower with many of the others shutting down their production entirely.There are hundreds of small solar companies in China which started during the 2010 boom when global solar demand increased by more than 150% . However their small scale of operatoins and lack of brand power means that they are bearing the brunt. While the large Chinese solar panel producers have seen their utilization go down , most will survive given the support from Chinese Banks. For example LDK despite its more than $3 billion in debt and losses is still getting loans from Chinese Development Bank. But the smaller Chines OEM panel makers don’t have the government sugar daddy behind them.

According to research firm IHS many of these firms have seen their utilization reach 35% in Q411 and it is expected that they will see worse times in the first quarter of 2012 when the solar demand is seasonally weak.Many of these smaller companies depend on orders from the larger Tier 1 Chinese solar companies which are now themselves having overcapacity. Like wind and LED industries , expect a big consolidation with the smaller fry getting beaten out of the market

Chinese Solar Panel Manufacturers

There are many Chinese Solar Panel Manufacturers as the costs of setting up a Solar Panel Plant is quite low at around $5 million for a basic solar module line.However there are only a few big Solar Panel Companies which have capacities running into hundreds of Megawatts per year.There are also a number of big State Owned (SOE) Chinese conglomerates that are entering the Solar Panel Industry.Here  is a list of the Best Chinese manufacturers of Solar Panels

  1. Suntech – Suntech was  the world’s biggest producer of solar panels in 2010 and was one the first companies to set up operations in China.Its example was followed by a host of other Chinese companies.Suntech has been slow to expand compared to the fast growing small companies in China and has lost marketshare to them.It has started to vertically integrate in order to meet the low cost challenge from Trina and Yingli.Suntech makes one of the best quality Solar Panels in China.
  2. Yingli Green Energy - Yingli Green Energy is one of the oldest Chinese companies and is completely integrated from polysilicon.The company has been expanding rapidly and has one of the lowest cost structures in the industry.Yingli Green Energy has been sponsoring Football in Europe and has started a new line of high efficiency “Panda” Solar Panels.Yingli is the second biggest producer of Solar Panels in China
  3. Trina Solar – Trina Solar is one of the lowest cost manufacturers of Solar Panels in the World right now and also sells it at a very low price.This is the reason that the company in a span of few short years has managed to acquire a substantial  global marketshare.The prices the solar panels being sold are around $340 per 200 watt module.Trina Solar.Like Yingli and Suntech,Trina Solar Panels are one the best quality in China
  4. Hanwha Solar One - The Company which was recently acquired by South Korean Chemicals Giant Hanwha also makes one of the cheapest panels and sells it a very low price.The quality is also quite good and with strong parentage behind it,the solar panels made by the company.Again like Trina Solar,it has very low cost Chinese manufacturing capacity.The company was earlier known as Solarfun.
  5. Canadian Solar – The Company sells a wide variety of solar panels unlike other producers.The Solar Panel Selling Price is also quite cheap.The Company is headquartered in Canada with factories in China and Ontario.Canadian Solar is the 5th biggest producer of Solar Panels in China.
  6. LDK Solar - This is the biggest producer of solar wafers that are used by crystalline solar panels but is losing its No.1 position to GCL Poly.Is expanding rapidly into other parts of the solar supply chain and could break into top 10 solar panel producer in the next couple of years.LDK Solar is building a huge solar panel and cell production facility.It sells Solar Panels mostly to other Solar Panel Companies.
  7. Renesola – Very similar to LDK Solar in operations and structure,this Chinese company is the lowest cost producer of solar wafer producer in the world.It is expanding into other parts of the supply chain.Like LDK Solar,Renesola sells most of its Solar Panels under an OEM Contract
  8. Jinko Solar – Jinko Solar has shown the fastest growth rates in the Chinese Solar Panel Industry.The company is expanding again to become one of the Top 5 Solar Panel Producers in China.Jinko Solar like Trina and Yingli is vertically integrated and has one of the lowest cost solar panel production process.
  9. Trony Solar - Trony Solar is the largest Solar Thin Film Producer in China and uses a-Si Technology to producer Solar Panels used mostly in Off-Grid Applications.The company uses its own custom made equipment and manages to get decent margins for its products.The company recently listed on the HK Stock Exchange.

China adds around 100 GW of Electric Power Capacity each year to meet the growing energy demands of its population. Most of it is thermal power which is becoming costlier besides the dangerous disadvantages of coal. China has been trying to increase its hydro and nuclear power capacity, but nuclear energy has received a setback with Fukushima. Solar Power in  China is also increasing but it will take time as well to satisfy the electricity deficit. China is already the largest wind power market in the world installing almost 50% of the wind capacity in 2010.I t intends to keep up the furious pace of wind turbine installations at around 25 GW per year for the next 35 years to reach 1000 GW by 2050. China already has around 7 of the top 15 wind turbine producers. However a  vicious price war has thrown a lot of the wind producers into bankruptcy.

The large ones like Sinovel, Goldwind and possibly Ming Yang power will benefit from this purge.With plans for offshore wind power and increasing the wind farm capacity of its western provinces,wind turbine markers in China stand to benefit for a long time. Note Goldwind and Sinovel are listed on HK and Shanghai while Ming Yang is the only Chinese wind company listed in the USA. I don’t think foreign wind turbine producers would benefit too much as Chisese state owned companies like Datang prefer domestic wind makers. Though GE,Vestas,Suzlon and other are trying to expand in China ,don’t think their efforts would lead to too much in revenues.

Offshore Wind Power in China

China is now planning to set a target of 30 GW of Offshore Wind Energy by 2020 which means a 300x growth from its current installed base of only 100 MW.This will make it rival United Kingdom which aims to harvest massive amounts of electricity from its North Sea wind resource.Top Chinese Wind Energy Companies like Sinovel, Goldwind, Ming Yang have already developed or/are in the process of developing wind turbines of 5 MW capacity or more to target this fastest growing wind segment.  Sinovel the largest wind energy company in the world has already supplied the wind turbine for the Shanghai farm. Note top offshore wind companies like Siemens,Vestas are already jostling to take a first mover advantage in this technologically complex segment.Even non traditional players like the Korean shipmakers Daewoo,Samsung,Hyundai as well as US Defence Major Northrup Gruman are also preparing to take a slice of this upcoming multi billion industry.

List of Global Wind Turbine Companies

1) Vestas – Vestas the largest Wind Turbine Company in the World has been facing one setback after another.The Danish Company which used to be a Green Investor Favorite till a couple of years can’t seem to find a buyer these days.Stiff competition from China,Slowdown in Wind Energy Farms in the West and now  Wind Blade Problems have formed a perfect storm for this company.

2) General Electric (USA) General Electric is looking to Invest Heavily in the new Age Green Industry like other Industrial Giants like Siemens,ABB etc.General Electric or GE as it is popularly known is one of the biggest players in the Green Industry globally.It generated $18 billion in Ecomagination revenues in 2009 with $1.5 Billion in Investment.General Electric like other industrial conglomerates like Siemens,Areva and others are in fact low risk plays in the Green Investing sector.GE is strong across most of the Green Sectors today particularly in the area of Smart Grid and Energy Efficiency.GE has a 40-50% marketshare of the US market which is the 2nd largest in the world.Due to its vertical integration,it has one of the highest margins in the industry and remains a formidable player with its acquisition Enron’s Wind Turbine arm proving to be a masterstroke.

3) Gamesa (Spain) - Gamesa the Spanish Wind Turbine Producer and Wind Farm Operator has faced the worst year of its history in 2010.Like Vestas and Suzlon,2010 has been a cruel year for the Wind Industry in the Western Markets and the WTG Players dependent on those markets.Gamesa is one of the worst performing Wind Energy Stocks in 2010.Gamesa is looking to restructure its operations and concentrating on the offshore wind market by focusing on higher megawatt turbines.Gamesa is leading a massive Spanish Research Effort to develop a colossal 15 MW Turbine meant for the fast growing offshore wind sector.But this is a long term plan with 2020 set as the target for the complete development of this new Turbine.Meanwhile Gamesa has become the target of takeover speculation by one of the bigger Chinese Wind Turbine players like Sinovel,Goldwind etc.Gamesa has seen its revenue fall by 28% and profits by  71% with Operating Margins of 4-5%.Things don’t look too good for 2011 either though Orders have started ticking up

4) Suzlon Energy is the biggest Indian Wind Energy Company by far with 4-5 Gigawatts of WTG Capacity per year.However Suzlon has languished in red ink since the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.The company started by Tulsi Tanti in 1995 was a shining example of Asian CleanTech with a 10% global marketshare and ranking amongst the top 5 Wind Turbine Makers .Suzlon buoyed by its success had bought controlling equity stakes in Turbine Gears producer Hansen Transmission and European Wind Turbine producer Repower.Suzlon seems to be recovering with increase in orders particularly at its German subsidiary RePower,however a huge debt burden poses problems.

5) Siemens – The largest Green Company in the world,Siemens has a strong presence in the Wind Turbine Segment.The company is strong in Europe and is now expanding to emerging markets like Asia.Given its huge technological strengths in electrical equipment,power transmission and large project construction,Siemens is looking for a dominant role in the growing offshore wind market as well.

6) Goldwind - The Wind Energy Market in China has witnessed the growth of almost 90 companies with little differentiation competing fiercely on prices.This has led to low to zero margins for most of these companies.Goldwind has managed to rise above the competition by becoming the single largest Chinese player and looks to takeover the No.1 position in the world in the next few years.By taking bold risks and with the support of the government,Goldwind has become a threat to the established Wind Turbine Order

7) Sinovel – The 2nd largest Chinese Wind Power Company managed to do a successful IPO in Hong Kong last year despite long delays.The company is looking to expand in the foreign markets particularly the US market and has gotten a local management to help it penetrate the newer market.

8) Dongfang Electric - Dongfang Electric Corporation,China’s largest power equipment producer  is also the 3rd biggest Wind Turbine Producer in China as well .The company has managed to grow impressively like the rest of the Chinese and is looking to expand in foreign markets as well.Recently  bagged a 276 MW $203 million WTG supply contract with Abhijeet Group.

9) Ming Yang Power- Ming Yang is the only significant non-state owned Chinese Wind Energy Company with a 2009 marketshare of around 4%.The Company has a very short history installing its first Wind Turbine just 2 years ago and has seen an exponential growth riding on the incredible Wind Industry Growth in China.

10) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries , the massive Japanese Conglomerate is looking to overseas market for growing its Wind Energy Division.Mitsubishi like other Japanese companies are looking towards Green Industry for growth.Japan already possesses solid strengths in this area with its traditional focus on resource efficiency.While companies like Panansonic and Toyota looks towards Electric Vehicles and Batteries,Sharp and Kyocera towards Wind Energy,Mitsubishi is focusing its energy on the Wind Sector.

11) Enercon – Enercon is a privately listed German company which has almost 22 GW of Wind Turbine Installations in the world.Enercon was the first company to build a gearless Wind Turbine which is one of the biggest innovation in the Wind Energy Industry in recent times.

12) Nordex - Nordex is another German company in the Wind Turbine Industry which was the first one to build a 1 MW Turbine.The company has  not managed to grow fast as the other German companies like Enercon,RePower and Siemens.

13) United Technologies Corporation (UTC) - This US Giant Technology Conglomerate is still a small player in the World Wind Power Market.However it has increased its footprint by acquiring struggling independent US Wind Power company Clipper.

China has announced a new solar subsidy for BIPV systems of 9 Yuan per Watt ($1.4/watt) and CNY 7/watt for PV systems for home.Note China has already become a top 5 market in the world in 2011 after announcing a $1.15/kwh Feed in Tariff for utility scale solar power installations.This new subsidy by the Chinese ministry of finance should boost the home and commercial segment.Note China had recently raised the target of solar energy to 15 GW by 2015 from 10 GW as solar energy has grown amazingly fast in the recent past.

Note Chinese solar panel manufacturers have faced a torrid time with oversupply and sanctions against imports by foreign countries.The Chinese government which was for long delaying the solar subsidies has changed its stance introducing a number of supporting measures for the solar industry which is the largest in the globe right now.Note only are its banks supporting it major solar companies but now it is boosting domestic growth as well.Solar prices have fallen drastically and have reached retail grid parity at a number of places in the world already.

BIPV Market and Companies

BIPV is the acronym for  Building Integrated Photovoltaics which means the integration of photovoltaic materials into building structures such as roofs,windows and facades.It not only replaces the building supplies but also generate electricity creating a killer green product.This is one of the fastest growing segment in the solar industry and it has been estimated that almost 6-7% of the solar industry is made of BIPV products.A wide variety of technologies and products are being used in creating BIPV products.Though a large number of big solar panel manufactures like Suntech,Yingli,Canadian Solar have come out with BIPV Panels and Products,the segment has not become as big mainly because of higher costs vis a vis the standard crystalline solar systems.There are also specialized BIPV suppliers such as Ascent Solar and Konarka whose products are more suited to the BIPV Industry than the normal module industry.Some of these suppliers have no option as their technology is no longer competitive with the Chinese solar panel producers.Solyndra had a niche product which could be used in rooftops with ease of installation and low weight.However the high costs drove it to bankruptcy.The next leg up to the BIPV industry should come up with more BIPV products from the Major Solar Companies and as cost  of solar silicon decline further with scale and innovation

Read about the 100 Solar Energy Stocks which would benefit

Earlier Chinese Solar Subsidies Articles

Giant Chinese State Owned Utilities expectedly Win most of Solar Projects with Loss Making Bids

China had recently put up 280 MW of Solar Projects up for Bidding in the second such case in a time span of 1 year.These projects saw stiff competition from China’s Big 5 Power Utilities.The bidders went as low as $0.108/KwH which pretty much ensures that thedeveloper will see big losses in his investment.But for the Big 5 Utilities,these projects are small change for their companies massive billion dollar cash flows.It allows them to take a first mover advantage in the growing Green Energy Market in China which is going to be one of the biggest in the coming decade.According to unconfirmed reports China Power Investment has won 7 out of the 13 projects with bids ranging from 10-15c/KwH.The other utilities are also said to have won the other projects.No small time developer could hope to compete at these prices,so it was a no brainer that these SOE would win these Solar Energy Projects.

 

China’s Solar Energy Target raised by 150% to a massive 50 GW by 2020 -TSL,YGE,STP,SOL,LDK,JASO,JKS,CSUN,DQ,GCL,CSIQ to benefit

China’s Solar Panel Manufactures have enjoyed a massive boom phase though domestic solar electric capacity has failed to keep up.China has been rewriting its renewable energy plan  in the wake of the Fukushima Nuclear Energy Disaster in Japan.Note there has been a strongglobal backlash against nuclear energy around the world and 7 nuclear plants in Germany have been closed all but in name.Other countries like South Korea,Italy,Switzerland are rethinking of what do about their nuclear reactors giving the massive tail risks with nuclear generation.China had a target of only  20 GW of solar by 2020 has decided to raise the target by  150% to 50 GW according to the country’s leading energy planning authority NDRC.Note China installed more than 15 GW of Wind Energy in 2010 alone becoming the world’s largest Wind Energy Market by far.Solar Energy strongly lags Wind in China despite China having the biggest solar panel manufacturing industry in the world.Its Golden Sun and other Solar Subsidy programs have been small in absolute terms compared to its huge electricity capacity.Note Wind Power in China has reached a saturation level with almost 18 GW installed in 2010 ,with such a high level further growth looks quite difficult.

 

Chinese Solar Panel Producers have become a famous target of an anti dumping petition brought on by Solarworld and other companies.Though US Solar Installers have opposed the move as it will increase the solar panel prices in US,ITC has gone ahead with the investigation.Though the charges of subsidies and efficiency can be debated,the fact remains that US Solar Panel Producers can’t compete with Chinese Solar Panels.Massive industrial overcapacity in China has made the prices of products very cheap and made it difficult for Western producers to compete in most areas such as Chemical,Renewable Energy,Textiles etc.The Chinese win because of their low interest rates,cheap labor,free land,massive government support.

Wind Tower makers in the USA are now bringing forth measures to stop Chinese and Vietnamese wind tower producers from  selling in the USA as well.With the trade relations between China and USA already quite bad,it remains to get worse still if the wind industry also becomes a focus point.Note Chinese wind turbines producers are already the world’s biggest.The price wars in China have made them look to exports and USA has been targeted by these companies.Sinovel and Goldwind are leading the charge.Its a matter of time before other companies target the wind turbine segment as well.Unlike solar panels ,most wind turbines in USA are made locally.

Read about the pros and cons of wind energy

Local wind tower manufacturers complain about Chinese pricing, sign petition

Claiming unfair pricing practices by Chinese and Vietnamese importers, two wind energy companies with local work sites have signed on to a petition asking trade regulators to investigate possible dumping of wind towers into the U.S. market at less than fair value.The group claims the Chinese government uses subsidies to push wind towers into the U.S. market. The petition asks that duties be placed on Chinese and Vietnamese tower imports by the U.S. Department of Commerce and also seeks an investigation by the International Trade Commission.

Green War between USA and China escalates with acceptance of 301 Filing

The Rise of American Protectionism has its chief enemy in the shape of China.Increasing unemployment and slow economic growth make Currency Wars seem  inevitable in the face of shrinking global demand and export loving countries.However Green Wars are something totally new.Clean Technology leadership has been slipping to China,as USA dithers and bickers on climate legislation and energy laws.China has been strategically pumping huge amounts of cash into the new age Green Industries.Other countries like South Korea,Singapore,Malaysia,Japan,Germany,Spain are also making a major push into the Renewable Energy Industry.USA despite its technology leadership has seen Green Jobs melting away towards China and Mexico.With American Public  Sentiment turning heavily against China in recent times,the US Congress and Administration have been pressurizing China on multiple fronts