Sumco – Latest Japanese Company retreating from Oversupplied Solar Industry (Exits PV Wafers Completely)

5 Feb, 2012
Japan,Solar Energy

Japanese Companies which were the leading solar companies in the early part of the century have steadily lost the top global rankings to Chinese companies. Now many of the top Japanese Solar Energy Companies are retreating from markets and manufacturing completely . Sharp which was the largest solar company in 2009 and 2010 has radically restructured its strategy but is still losing marketshare. Panasonic the second biggest solar company has closed down its Japanese factory. Other Japanese solar companies like Mitsubishi, Kyocera are also being forced to rethink solar panel manufacturing.

Note most of the higher cost producers in the solar industry are effectively bankrupt and are only being supported by government or big parents. Many Western companies have already closed or are on the verge of closing. Some of the bankrupt companies are not finding buyers of their equipment even at 10c/dollar. Massive overcapacity remains in the solar industry particularly in China which is not being taken out fast enough which will probably lead to another bad year for solar stocks in 2012.

Now a new wave of bankruptcies are on the way with Q-Cells likely facing a credit event as it needs to roll over convertibles which come due in February. Note Q-Cells has fallen a long way from being the biggest solar cell company in 2008. Miasole and Nanosolar were Private Equity backed CIGs darlings that were supposed to become the biggest thing following Firsst Solar . Now Nanosolar faceds executive exits while Miasole has fired large number of its workforce failing to find a big parent to support it. Note the smaller companies like Ascent Solar have found backers in Asia . Solar Technologies are seeing Darwin Survival of the Fittest with crystalline silicon solar panel technology beating out thin film solar and solar thermal technologies

Sumco which is the 2nd biggest producer of semiconductor wafers is closing down its solar wafer division after  reporting a massive loss in 2011. The company will close 2 of its solar wafer divisions and shed more than 1000 jobs. Many of the Western companies like REC, Schott have already closed their solar wafer divisions due to a 70% reduction in solar wafer price in 2011. Only big Solar Wafer Producers like GCL , Renesola can be expected to survive the biggest down cycle in the solar industry.

Citing ‘structural’ overcapacity, ‘significant price declines’ and a fall in demand of crystalline silicon wafers, Sumco has decided to completely exit the market. The company expects to incur charges of ¥5 billion, folding both wafer subsidiaries, Sumco Solar Corporation and Minimata Denshi, and noted that it would report a significant operating loss in its fiscal fourth quarter results. Sumco said that wafer prices had declined by 70% from January 2011.Sumco had guided that solar wafer segment losses in the fourth quarter would be -¥7.2 billion and full-year losses of -¥6 billion.

Appendix

Biggest Solar Wafer Companies

Solar Wafer Companies are mainly concentrated in Asia specifically China and Taiwan.Cheap labour,lower land and capital costs as well as presence of major customers has made China the No.1 Solar Wafer Producer in the world.Despite most of the polysilicon being produced in Europe and USA,China leads the way in wafer production.Note semiconductor wafers in contrast are mainly produced in the developed countries like Japan,USA and Germany.The  structural forces of the crystalline silicon industry is forcing vertical integration with cell producers making wafers and wafer production companies making cells.However there are a few companies which predominantly concentrate on supply solar wafers to solar cell manufacturers.Here is the list of the main solar wafer producers which have shown stunning growth in the last few years.

1) GCL Poly – This Chinese company has become one the biggest producers of polysilicon and wafers in 2010 from zero in 2008.Is expanding rapidly but not getting into production of solar cells and panels.The company is also on its way to becoming a Top 3 producer of polysilicon and is expanding by co-locating wafer plants near its customer factories.Has singed massive long term deals with most of the biggest solar panel producers in the world.

2) LDK Solar - This is the biggest producer of solar wafers that are used by crystalline solar panels but is losing its No.1 position to GCL Poly.Is expanding rapidly into other parts of the solar supply chain and could break into top 10 solar panel producer in the next couple of years.

Why Sharp is Abandoning Domestic Factories

Sharp which was the biggest solar company in 2010 in terms of revenues is being finally forced to move its production away from Japan to low cost countries in Asia.Note the relentless cut in prices of solar panels by Chinese solar panel companies has made life impossible for high cost panel companies in Europe and Japan.While US Companies like Sunpower and First Solar always had the majority of their production in low cost locales like Malaysia and Philipines,European solar firms had also started shifting their production overseas with Q-Cells moving to Malaysia and REC  to Singapore.The current glut in solar panels has let to massive bloodletting in the solar industry with some established companies like Evergreen,ENER on the verge of bankruptcy.The sharp cost improvements and increased supply of crystalline silicon solar panels is set about to bring radical changes in the solar industry after a massive boom in 2010.The Second Wave of Thin Film Technology Bankruptcies has already started and we can expect more of that soon.Most of the production bases in Europe should be shuttered as well as costs have become higher than the selling prices.PV Crystalox and REC are already in a lot of trouble,cutting production and forecasting losses in the second half of 2011.

 


Solar Tiles in Australia – Suppliers/ Distributors Wanted

4 Feb, 2012
Australia,Solar Energy

One of my readers wants to install solar tiles in Australia and would like suppliers.Please contact if you can do so

We are researching into the best BIPV solar tiles that are available here in Australia. We want to build our home this year we are planning to build a home with the help of a company who does kit homes and will design one for us like this

We would like to incorporate BIPV solar tiles or roofing when we build – so we are trying to find out a this point what products are now available in Australia and what our choices would be and the range of prices each would be in …just to give us a starting point as we begin to pull all the ideas together ?

We’d really appreciate any information you can send our way that would help us achieving this – the brand/type of BIVP we can use, the best inverter and battery you’d recommend – obviously it will depend on where we are and how much sun our roof will get – but we plan to make it as much as is possible as we’d like to be able create 100% of our power needs or if not at least 80 % . At present as a guide my household uses  approx 10.7 khw of power a day – so that will give you an idea of how many solar tiles we’d need perhaps …if the sun was at its optimum ? We hope to be building on a reasonably sunny block between Ferntree Gully and Belgrave on the high side near bushland …beginning in a couple of months or so

Here is a list of the main Solar Shingle Manufacturers

  1. Energy Conversion Devices (Uni Solar) – After First Solar,Energy Conversion Devices is the second largest US company in Thin Film Technology.After a few quarters of profits in 2008,the company went into the red as its flexible a-Si modules failed to cut costs as fast as others.It has been shutting factories in the US and shifting to low cost locations.Still one of the biggest independent Thin Film Producers.Seems more likely that it will be bought out then survive independently.The company sells solar shingles mainly in Italy and France.The reason is that those countries give higher subsidy for BIPV applications under which solar shingles made by Uni Solar qualify. PowerShingle is the brand under which Uni Solar sells its solar shingles.
  2.  Dow Chemicals – This Chemicals Conglomerate has started producing it properietary Solar Shingles recently.While the company first showcased its DOW™ POWERHOUSE™ SOLAR SHINGLE in 2009,these solar tiles will be available commercially only this year.Note Dow uses the same thin film technology Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) used by UniSolar.The company has delayed the introduction of the solar shingles technology despite developing them as far back as 2009.The company was supposed to start a factory in Brazil.The company claims that the installed cost of Solar Shingles will be lower than solar panels (though its difficult to think that it will be possible with solar panel prices crashing to as low as $1/watt nowadays).It is not know what the Dow Solar Shingles cost will be
  3. Atlantis Energy Systems was founded in 2002 .They manufacture custom solar BIPV Systems (Building Integrated PhotoVoltaic). They  produces solar BIPV glass and solar PVSunSlate Roof Tiles in the USA.
  4. Sunpower (Total) – Sunpower is a vertically integrated solar energy company known more for its highest efficiency solar panels.Sunpower is present in all 3 segments of the solar sytems business namely a)residential b)commercial and c) utility.
    Sunpower makes the highest efficiency, building integrated SunTiles. The SunTile brand blends into flat and S-Tile roofs to convert sunlight into clean energy. SunTiles are all-black and  built to withstand 110 mph wind-driven rain.
  5. Sharp the Japanese Zaibatsu known more for its Electronics Products is also the world’s No 1 Company in terms Solar Module Revenues.Despite its leadership in c-Si Technology,it has shifted focus to a-Si thin film due to higher costs.Sharp has started shipping a-Si modules from its 1 GW capacity plant in Sakai. It also sells solar shingles in the form os 64 watt  solar panels .The Sharp ND62RU1F is a group of solar shingles all arranged together.It is not really a solar shingle since it does not integrate into the roof but its light since its made of  thin film silicon technology and easy to install.

China India Trade Deficit rises to Sinister Heights of $27 Billion Officially and Much more Unofficially

3 Feb, 2012
China

China India Trade has been rising at very high growth rates over the last few years driven by the booming GDP growth in the fastest growing economies of the world. However India like other countries faces the mounting problem of a huge trade deficit with China which is growing all the time. Like Brazil ,USA this has become a major problem . Beside the official reported figures , there is a large clandestine trade takes place outside the normal channels. Massive imports from China go unreported to avoid excise duties and custom taxes. Both countries have corrupt officials and businessmen which facilitate trade without paying of taxes and duties. Unofficial Trade Deficit with China may be double the $27 billion reported in 2011.

Rising China and India Tensions

India and China are the Two Rising Global Behemoths with Relations between these most populated countries always being tense.Both countries share a similar history of colonization by Western Powers in the 17-20th Centuries and Independence being attained in the middle of the 20th Century.China and India also shared the same economic trajectory until 1979 when Market Reforms put China on track to become the 2nd largest economy in 2010.India also embarked on Reforms in 1991 and has started showing fast economic growth in recent times.The relations between these 2 countries are tense since the Border War fought between them in 1962.They have one of the longest borders in the world which is disputed.China recently upped the ante on claiming territorial rights over India’s North Eastern State of Arunachal Pradesh.

China’s Recent Provocations

Chinese provocations against India have been rising in recent times as the Chinese leadership wants to keep India off tilt.Here is a list of recent provocations against India

1) Stapling of  separate visas for India’s citizens from the state of  Jammu and Kashmir which is disputed with Pakistan

2) Trying to stall an ADB Loan to India’s state of Arunachal Pradesh

3) Support in Building Nuclear Reactors in Pakistan which regards India as an existential threat.It has also supplying Pakistan with missiles and  fighter aircraft.

4) Denial of visa to India’s top ranking military official on flimsy grounds leading to suspension of military contacts between the 2 countries

 5) Stationing of  11,000 troops in Gilghit Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) which India regards as a part of its own territory and over which India and Pakistan have fought 3 wars

Many of India’s top companies like BHEL,L&T are being hollowed out by Chinese competition of low cost goods and super cheap financing. Power, Telecom equipment form a major chunk of imports while India is primarily exports resource like iron ore. So what is happening is that India is become a resource vassal economy of China (though it may sound simplistic) . China puts up big trade barriers for India’s value added exports like pharma and Information Technology while putting no hurdles for import of resources.With the rapid growth rate of imports , India is in danger of becoming dependent on China for a number of goods as its industries shut down in the face of competion.

China captures almost Half of the Power Equipment Market in India raising Concerns

India’s private players like Tata Power,Reliance Power and others are in the process  of setting up massive mega coal plants using supercritical boiler technology.While L&T and BHEL,the two Largest Capital Equipment Companies have won a lot of orders,the sheer scale of Demand requires Huge Imports as well.Low cost Chinese equipment providers like Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric have won almost half of the power equipment orders raising concerns amongst the Indian administrators.

Solar Panels are a good example of one such good where Indian industries can’t compete in the face of Chinese subsidies to its own companies.

The Indian government is not going to impose any new duties on imports of Chinese solar cells. This is despite the petition by the Indian solar panel manufacturers to give a level playing field. Note Chinese solar panels have virtually destroyed the solar manufacturing industry in the West with big companies falling under the relentless price pressure where solar panel prices have gone down by 60% in one year. Only the Koreans seem to be standing up to the Chinese government backed top tier solar companies from China. The rest have mostly folded up and are facing survival questions including those from Taiwan. Indian solar companies were never that big and cost competitive anyway given the headstart and support of the Chinese backed companies. The price crash in 2011 has seen most of them close their factories as they can’t even cover their costs at the Gross Margin Level.

India China relations have never been that great on a geopolitical level with the 1962 War and unresolved border dispute in the north. Recently the imports of Chinese telecom equipment from Huawei and ZTE raised a massive ruckus with Indian telecom companies supporting the Chinese because of low cost equipment while security concerns were raised.

China has recently been in the news over Internet Espionage on defense and sensitive installations in India and USA. This has led to the high profile exit of Google from China.Recently a Canadian research organization revealed/alleged  how Chinese govt backed hackers had broken into Indian embassy and government computers.This has made the Indian government wary of allowing Chinese equipment suppliers into India’s communication sector.Though both ZTE and Huawei’s equipment is much cheaper compared to Nokia  Siemens,Alcatel and Ericsson , these companies face an uphill battler in India right now.

Rising Trade Deficit Concerns

India’s trade deficit with China is estimated to reach $60 billion by 2014-15, up nearly three-fold from $23 billion in 2010-11. Bilateral trade with China was $63 billion in 2010-11, with China accounting for $43 billion worth of imports.

“Participants at the inter-ministerial workshop were especially worried about forecasts that China could account for 75% of India’s manufacturing in the next five years, up from the present 26%,” the official said. The workshop was attended by officials of key ministries and departments, including finance, home and the department of industrial policy and promotion.

“Excessive dependence can be disruptive in case of strained relations,” said Narendra Sisodia, a defence analyst and former additional secretary of NSC Secretariat. In general terms, if a country that is supplying basic components to another stops supplies, it would hurt the importing country because its manufacturing will be adversely affected, he said. “Much also depends on whether a country has alternative sources of supply and how quickly those could be mobilised.”

 

 

Solar Jobs Cut by Dutch Company Solland as European Solar Panel Industry Dies

19 Jan, 2012
Europe,Solar Energy

Solar Jobs have been cut in the tens of thousands this year by a number of European Solar Companies including marquee names such as REC, Q-Cells, Solarworld ,SMA Solar besides many of the smaller names. Some of the solar companies like Solon have completely shut down. 5000 solar companies have downed shutters in 2011 according to German association BSW. This is despite global solar demand in 2011 increasing by around 30-40% compared to 2010. The reason is that massive overcapacity has been created in China and other parts of Asia. Backed by cheap loans and massive subsidies, around 50 GW of solar panel capacity has been created . This has led to a crashing of solar panel prices by 60% which has decimated the higher cost companies in Europe.

In fact some of the biggest solar companies in the world like LDK and Sunpower would have been bankrupt as well but for the support of others. Solar Panel company  Solland Solar of Netherlands is shutting down its module operations firing 100 workers. This is after selling its solar cell operations. Expect other remaining European companies to shut down as well though Solarworld is hoping to bring an anti-dumping duty against Chinese solar panels in Europe as well.Note in the past European solar companies have tried various ruses such as shifting solar factories to Asia . However that option is not open to the smaller fry who have no option but to die .

Schott Solar fires 290 workers

The number of solar factories closing in Europe has increased tremendously in the 2nd half of 2012 despite a record surge in Germany which would have raised 2011 solar growth to 25%. However the relentless price pressure from Chinese solar panel companies has decimated the solar companies in the West. While there have been a number of famous cases of bankruptcy like Solyndra and Solon, there have been bigger solar factory closedowns. REC has closed down more than 1 GW of wafer capacity while a pure play Spanish solar wafer factory also closed down recently . British solar wafer maker PV Crystalox is also near the verge of failure. Solar Wafer prices have fallen by almost 60% in the last 1 year with the prices much below the cost of production in Europe. It seems unlikely that any solar wafer maker will remain alive in Europe by 2013.

Q-Cells move to Malaysia

Solar Factories in US and Europe have been closing at a rapid clip over the last 2 years as Solar Panel Prices have come crashing down.Earlier the higher cost factories were able to survive due to non-existent Asian players and benign competitions.But with the rise of the Asian Solar Companies,the European and US Companies have faced very tough times.Q-Cells closed most of its German Solar Cell Manufacturing Lines even as it ramps up a factory in Malaysia.While there have been isolated cases of module factories being opening in Germany,Most of the Major Manufacturers like REC and Q-Cells are moving lock,stock and barrel to Asia.REC is already stepping up production at its 1 GW integrated solar plant in Singapore while Q-Cells manufacturing is also migrating to Malaysia.

Note this is not restricted to Europe.Japanese solar factories are being closed and shifted to Asia. USA Solar Jobs are also being moved to Mexico and other places.

Sharp which has managed till now to survive with its high costs in Japan factories too is now facing the pressure.Japanese market is highly protectionist with majority of the demand going to  Japanese zaibatsus.The Japanese government is helping Solar Companies with subsidies/diplomacy to sell Japanese solar panels in Asia and Africa.Sharp now is being forced to move off the islands of  Japan as the high cost of labor and currency makes it uncompetitive in the fiercely cutthroat solar panel global market.Sharp has a giant thin film silicon factory in Sakai and cell/module operations spread out in Japan.It will now manufacture more of its cells/modules overseas to cut down on the cost which are much higher than the Chinese.Note while Sharp is still a long way in suffering the fate of the likes of Evergreen Solar,there is no doubt that it is under huge pressure.Read my earlier post on Sharp’s position in the solar industry

Bangladesh averts yet another army coup even as Pakistan teeters on one

19 Jan, 2012
Bangladesh

South Asia is becoming a hotbed for possible army coups as democratic governments in Pakistan and Bangladesh foil attempts by the army to topple the government. Note both countries have seen long tenures of army ruling them with civilian leaders assassinated or sent to exile. India though remains solidly democratic with the armed forces subservient to the government in both law and fact.

Pakistan in Crisis

The Pakistani Government has been in  a state of crisis for the last few months with relations detoriarating between the civilian government and the generals. Note the Army in Pakistan led by the Chief of the Army Kiyani calls the shots with the civilian government a mere puppet in the defence and foreign relations department. The Government in Pakistan has been in chaos ever since Osama Bin Laden was captured from near the Army HQ in Rawalpindi. After the Army got a lot of flat from everyone, it decided to hit back at the civilians using a memo by the US Ambassador Haqqani which talked of an army coup.

Bangladesh has just a year ago foiled an insurrection by a paramilitary group protesting against pay discrimination. This had led to a big standoff with heightened tensions. Now there is news that the armed forces have managed to strike down a conspiracy by fanatic officers to topple the government. Note the current ruling party of Sheikh Hasina was toppled by the army in the 1970s when the founder was killed. The fundamentalist Islamist parties are allied to BNP’s Begum Khaleda Zia who is bitterly opposed to the PM.

The Bangladesh Army has foiled a coup planned against the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a military spokesman said on Thursday.Specific information has been unearthed that some officers in the military service have been involved in the conspiracy to topple the system of democratic governance, Brigadier General Muhammad Masud Razzaq told reporters.

Germany to Axe Solar Panel Installations by More than Half in 2012

19 Jan, 2012
Germany,Solar Energy,Solar Panels

Germany has always faced many twists and tales with regards to its solar subsidies in the last 2-3 years. The reason is that the targeted solar panel installations are always more than what the government is trying for . While the German government is reaching for around 50 GW by 2020 , more than 20 GW of solar panels have been installed in by 2011 itself with a monstrous 3 GW surge of solar modules in December of 2011 itself. This means that Germany needs only about 3 GW of solar panel installs per year while it did around 7.5 GW in 2010 and 2011.

There is urgent need to reduce the solar capacity addition in Germany because

a) It is requiring almost half of the $21 billion renewable energy subsidies in 2011 while generating 3% of the total power

b) Too much solar power while put pressure on the power grid as at the peak afternoon hours solar can generate almost 10% of Germany’s power requirement which means shutting down other sources

c)   German Solar Panel producers have stopped benefiting from German domestic growth. Most solar companies in Germany have been decimated by Chinese competition and around 20000 solar jobs and 5000 companies have shut down.

The German economy and environment minister are on the same page saying that the German Feed in Tariffs will have to be reduced as the returns on putting solar panels is still very high.There are a number of proposals that are being considered on top of the 15% expected cut in FIT in July of 2012.One is a 30% cut instead of 15%.Others are a 2% cut each month in 2012 to let the solar developers adjust for the change. Expect solar demand  in Germany to be very high as installers get aggressive to keep ahead of the subsidy cut.

German Solar December Surge

The German Solar Energy Market is biggest in the world and has installed the largest number of solar panels for the last few years. 2012 promises to be no different with Germany again set to the biggest solar market for solar panel manufacturers though Italy would give good competition. The German Solar Subsidy program has been the best in the world unlike the start and stop feed in tariff programs of Spain,Czech,UK,Australia and other places. A stable step in cut of feed in tariffs has helped solar energy prices coming down by more than 50% in the last few years though demand has only increased.

The influx of cheap solar panels from China has let the December 2012 explode to almost 2-3 GW according to the German solar association BSW. The high rates of return of over 10% due to super cheap Chinese solar panels at 80-90c/watt has been the major reason for the explosion in demand which could be the biggest month in Germany ever. While German Solar Market has remained robust as ever,the German solar panel producers like Solon, Sunways have been vanquished with a number of major solar companies failing and getting acquired. The Asian solar companies have been the major beneficiaries of this demand growth in Germany and Europe.

Reuters

Germany’s large number of solar installations is still expanding too rapidly and must be restricted if the market is to be kept sustainable, German Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen said on Wednesday.Roettgen said while the government had aimed for new installations of about 3 GW last year, the figure had reached 7.5 GW, despite cuts to subsidies over the last two years in what is the world’s largest solar market.”We need to reduce new installations,” he said at an annual energy conference organised by German newspaper Handelsblatt. “Seven gigawatts (GW) a year is a no-go.”

The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of

 a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR

b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of  3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms

Note Germany Feed in Tariffs have always followed many twists and turns each time as installations have always exceeded expectations.

The German Solar Feed in Tariff cut scheduled for July 2010 has got another twist with the Upper House of German Parliament Bundesrat not passing the Law in its current form.The one-off German Feed in Tariff cut has seen enough twists and turns to make a person go giddy . It all started with the new German government deciding to cut the highSolar FIT which was leading to outsized returns for investors installing solar panels in Germany leading to a situation similar to Spain’s  2008 solar frenzy .The reason was that the solar module prices had gone down by almost 50% in 2009  with the FIT rate ( higher subsidized electricity rates given to generators of renewable energy) going down by the only scheduled 10% .So in addition to the annual 10%  2010 cut , the German government decided to add another 16% Feed in Tariff cut byMay 2010 which led to a huge uproar from the industry.This led to a lot of bargaining between the industry,the coalition partners of the German government and the various industry lobbies.Ultimately the law went in with almost the same percentage of cuts but the cut was delayed from May to July . With the German Lower House Bundestag passing the government proposal , the Bundesrat’s approval was only supposed to be formality.However it seems that the Eastern German states which have the most to lose in terms of jobs and taxes from these cuts want to reduce the quantum of the cuts which in their original form would lead to a ~35% cut in one year.The law which is supposed to go into effect by July 1 might see more delays as it leads to more negotiations.

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