Solar PV Technology have made a huge advance in the last 2-3 years leading to a demand explosion with more than 100% growth forecast this year.Crystalline PV Technology as well as Thin Film Technology like CIGs and CdTe have reduced their costs drastically.While Solar PV still requires generous government subsidies for their growth,grid parity has come very close.Solar PV Technology has become economically competitive in parts of Italy where a unique combination of high electricity rates and sunshine have made Solar PV Technology very attractive.Costs are being reduced at more than 10% per year which would make Solar PV competitive in 2-3 years in most parts of the world.However mainstream and reputed forecasters and companies like Boston Consulting Group remain blind and ignorant to this.BCG in a recent report has said that biofuels and Concentrated Solar Thermal (CSP) Technology will become competitive.I have issues with both of these technologies.
AUO is investing massively in Solar Energy to build a multi Gigawatt capacity in partnership with US Solar Efficiency Leader Sunpower.Not only is AUO building a huge factory in JV with Sunpower in Malaysia,it has also made plans to set up a 2 GW Solar Crystalline Solar Cell Fab in Taiwan.This will be a 50:50 mix of multi and monocrystalline technology.Note the solar market despite seeing a massive 100% jump in solar demand in 2010 faces a huge supply overhang from a number of new large players.TSMC,Samsung,Hyundai,Saint Gobain,BYD are just some of the heavyweights ramping up their solar expansion plans.AUO faces a tough time in this crowded market which already has Chinese incumbents establishing gigawatt capacities.A new player needs to differentiate himself in the increasingly commodity market that solar modules have become.
In my previous missive I had opined that the US Solar Energy Policies were misguided as President Obama visited a Solyndra Factory and the US Department of Energy gave a huge $535 million loan guarantee to Solyndra without any substantial due diligence or competition.Note that established solar companies like Evergreen Solar are literally crying for […]
Czech has seen the biggest Solar Growth Explosion compared to its size powered by extremely generous feed in tariffs.This has made Czech one of the top solar installers in the world and led to a huge public backlash.The Czech government has responded by proposing to bust the Solar Energy Bubble by drastically cutting down the Feed in Tariffs.The administration is also trying to reign in the ballooning subsidies from existing solar plants by imposing taxes on solar plants and carbon credits.This is being done as the Czech consumers face a 15-25% increase in electricity prices next year.The country had little option as its very badly designed tariffs had led to a situation where Czech Industry faced the prospect of becoming uncompetitive.
Solar Energy is currently the amongst the costliest form of energy generation and except in niche applications is not economic without some sort of government subsidies.However growth in solar energy has been one of the fastest in the past decade upwards of 50% CAGR as costs have declined and technology improved manifold.Solar Energy forms just 0.1% of the the total energy supply of the planet currently and analysts and decisionmakers don’t think that Solar Energy can form a big chunk in the future as well.However I differ strongly in that aspect.The main reason for my very bullish opinion on Solar Energy is based on the simple fact that Solar Energy is the only form of Energy whose costs are declining rapidly on a secular basis.In a world facing the prospects of “peak commodity”,solar energy remains vastly abundant and it remains upto human technology to capture it at the lowest costs.
Malaysia is set to become one of the largest solar panel producing nations overtaking much larger rivals USA and Japan as world class companies start/expand capacities in Malaysia.Every country is trying to promoter Green Industry in the fight for leadership of this new age industry and to create high paying green jobs.Billions of Dollars in Green Stimulus has been doled out by governments but with varying degrees of success.USA has managed to squander most of its Green Subsidies despite possessing a very strong technological base as US Companies shutter US factories to outsource production to Asia and Mexico.European Countries have seen a similar phenomenon as their high costs force domestic companies to shift to Asia for their survival.China and Taiwan are the largest solar cell producers in Asia due to their low costs,good infrastructure and massive government support.Taiwan has also been able to leverage its semiconductor strengths with companies like TSMC and AUO expanding into solar energy.However Malaysia has been a surprise winner as well.It is important to understand the reasons behind Malaysia’s success as it has beat countries with much larger solar energy markets like USA and Japan.It also has no massive semiconductor industry like Taiwan which can redeploy its skills.It has only recently introduced a Feed in Tariff Policy to promote Renewable Energy