Organized retail industry in India is largely an oligopsonic market. (An oligopsony is a market form in which the number of buyers is small while the number of sellers in theory could be large. It contrasts with an oligopoly, where there are many buyers but just a few sellers. An oligopsony is a form of imperfect competition. One example of an oligopsony in the world economy is cocoa, where three firms (Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, and Callebaut) buy the vast majority of world cocoa bean production, mostly from small farmers in third-world countries.)

Shopping centres in India have well defined product categories. These including the multiplex, the food court, the hypermarkets, the departmental stores (loosely referred to as anchors) and then the vanilla stores. In each of the anchor product categories, there are virtually 4-5 established players that all the retailers have to go to. This gives rise to an oligopsonic market with the retailers having the relationship power balance tilted in their favour. Also, with shopping centres being capital intensive (with large amount of debts) and the retailers working on negative working capital, the cash flow pressures are that much more on the shopping centre owners than the retailers. It gives retailers much more time to play hardball in their negotiations with the shopping centre owners.

The Government of India has formed a high powered panel to look into replacing the usage of diesel powered gensets by Renewable Energy in Telecom Towers.India has around 300,000 Telecom Towers most of which are powered by expensive diesel generators.The reason is that a lot of the telecom towers are situated in far flung areas where the grid does not exist.Also the power supply in India is erratic and not reliable with 10 hour electricity blackouts not an infrequent occurrence.In these cases a backup supply of electricity supply is badly needed.Diesel Generators are the most popular form with Diesel heavily subsidized by the government in comparison to normal petroleum.Also Diesel Generators are widely available without huge capital costs.

Real Estate Companies have been trying to raise money from the primary markets for a long time.The depressed markets and the negative sentiment about the real estate sector had prevented that from happening.Realty companies are known for their “creative accouting” shenanigans and their financial statements are not even trusted by Fund Managers.However the Current Bull Run has sparked renewed interest in all sectors even depressed ones like Realty.This has presented a golden oppurtunity for Real Estate Companies to do IPOs.While the last 2 Real Estates issues Jaypee Infratech and Nitesh Estates were disasters,this ones looks better than the last 2 lemons.Oberio Realty has good profits,cash flows and zero debt.This makes their issue much better,however the Realty Sector is a dangerous one to play because of the corruption that pervades the entire industry.So you make an investment here not really knowing what you are getting into.Not a Warren Buffet Investment by a long shot.The upside is limited with huge amount of downsides in the form of unknowns.Here are some of the features of Oberio Realty

India suffers from a lack of variety as well as depth in ETFs compared to developed markets such as USA.Only Benchmark Asset Management Company (AMC) has seriously invested in the ETF space and its NiftyBeES ETF which follows India’s Nifty Index is the most successful one so far.India’s Infrastructure Sector has attracted a lot of investor interest given the stupendous $500 Billion Investment planned over the next 5 years.This will be 2.5x the investment in the past 5 years and will help India’s crumbling ports,roads,railways,power and communications sectors to gear up to India’s 8-9% GDP growth.Recently EGShares launched INXX which also markets itself as a play on India’s Infrastructure Growth in the US Markets.However that ETF was found wanting in a lot of areas.The new InfraBeES ETF launched by Benchmark seems much better than INXX and has been launched in the Indian markets.This ETF is based on CNX Infrastructure Index and its 1 unit will be 1/10th of that Index.Here are some of the key features of this new ETF

Nokia had lost a big chunk of marketshare in 2009 to local competitors like Micromax,Lava,Spice and MNCs like Samsung,LG and others.In 2010,this trend has accelerated with Nokia losing an astounding 18% marketshare in the first 6 months of 2010.The company’s markshare has been whittled down to just 36% from 54% earlier with local Indian mobile makers gobbling up a 33% marketshare.In the $6.5 bb annual revenue market for mobiles in India,this implies a loss of $1 billion in 2010 revenues.For Nokia,this is another resounding defeat as its Indian Fortress crumbles.Nokia is getting squeezed both on the high end as well as the low end.Local Indian companies are coming up with better features at lower price points and beating Nokia black and blue.Despite huge R&D,manufacturing strengths and an enviable distribution network,Nokia has lost the pulse of the Indian customer.The smaller Indian companies like Micromax are receiving Private Equity money to expand faster given their huge success.Nokia clearly needs more than a change of CEO,it needs to change the whole culture and DNA of the company like IBM in the 1990s.

2) Expensive Valuation – Despite Negative Cash Flows for 3 out of the last 5 years,Cyclical Industry and Customer Concentration Risk,the Management wants around 35x P/E Valuation for their company.This is quite amazing as I would not consider the company a Buy at even 20x.However even shadier and crappier issues have managed to listed.Prakash Steelage,Aster Silicates are all examples of investors trying their hand at such Junk.

3) Customer Concentration – The Company is dependent on a few customers like Tata Motors and Indian Railways for most of its revenues.Competition for supplying Wagons to Indian Railways has increased drastically with even State Owned Companies joing the fray.CV is a cyclical industry and margisn in the CV Body Building Business are nothing great.The Company has failed to show consistent margins in the business

Summary

This is one of the more crappier issues to hit the market.Investors should not be even considering subscribing to the issue given the bad management history,cyclical sector and competition.Margins are nothing great.Growth has been inconsistent and the stock is overvalued even at half of its asking price.