Transport Sector
June 22, 2012
However India's biggest capital good equipment company BHEL owned by the government is plannning a $500 million investment to build a solar cell factory in at Sakoli which is part Union heavy industries minister Praful Patel's constituency Bhandara.Talk about how dumb you can get. BHEL hardly has too much expertise in the solar panel industry and with solar cells in massive oversupply,it is almost sure to lose money. However that is how things work with Indian government companies where investment is made at the whims of ministers rather than rationality and business sense.BHEL is currently trading at one of the lowest valuations in its 10 year history and its not a big wonder why. The company has benefited in the past as did other machinery and engineering companies from an infrastructure invesment boom. However those glory days are over for the company as it faces competition from the Chinese companies and decreasing orders flow. Praful Patel the minister has already spent a few years in the airline ministry presiding over the conversion of the state owned carrier Air India ino a basket case. Now its the turn of BHEL to be turned into a basket case as well.
January 14, 2012
The Indian Solar Power has been one bright spot in the gloomy infrastructure and engineering sectors in 2011. With share prices crashing with growing corruption, land acquisition and financing problems, Solar Energy has surged in India thanks to government support and subsidies . While a number of Green Technology companies have started up to capitalize on the growing renewable energy trend, the established constuction companies in India have not been far behind . While utilities like Tata Power, Adani, Reliance Power, NTPC have already built or are setting up power plants based on solar panels , L&T has become a major solar EPC players . L&T is now raising debt with a $100 million issue to fund its solar expansion plans .
January 11, 2012
Train Accidents in India are starting to happen with surprising regularity with hardly a month passing by without a major collision or accident. Small accidents seem to be happening every day with news report of a collision not generating any mindshare these days. Road Accidents in India too happen with great regulatiry with some estimates of 1000 Road Deaths happening in India every day . This is due to government and people apathy towards safety regulation and following of laws and norms. It is just not resticted to trains but encompasses the entire system such as fire safety etc. Without a major change in the people attitude towards safety regulation expect such accident and waste of human life will continue to happen.
July 5, 2011
Natural gas is rightly termed as the Fuel of the 21st Century, has emerged as the most preferred fuel due to its efficiency and cost effectiveness. The demand of natural gas has sharply increased in the last two decades at the global level. The production of natural gas is around 87 million standard cubic meters per day. The main producers of natural gas are Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. (ONGC), Oil India Limited (OIL) and JVs of Tapti, Panna-Mukta and Ravva. Even private parties from some fields produce gas under Production Sharing Contracts. Government has also offered blocks under New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) to private and public sector companies with the right to market gas at market determined prices. In India most of the production of gas comes from the Western offshore area. The on-shore fields in Assam, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat States are other major producers of gas. Smaller quantities of gas are also produced in Tripura, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan States. OIL operates in Assam and Rajasthan States, whereas ONGC is operating in the Western offshore fields and in other states. Prior to 1987, gas prices were fixed by ONGC/OIL. since 1987, the price is being fixed by Government. The Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas has been regulating the allocation and pricing of gas produced by ONGC and OIL by issuing administrative orders from time to time. The gas produced by the JVs and by NELP operators is governed by the respective production sharing contracts between the Government and the producers. Under the existing policy, 100% Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is allowed for both LNG projects and natural gas pipeline projects.
July 4, 2011
At the time of independence in 1947, India's capital market was relatively under-developed. Although there was significant demand for new capital, there was a dearth of providers. Merchant bankers and underwriting firms were almost non-existent. And commercial banks were not equipped to provide long-term industrial finance in any significant manner. By the early 1990s, it was recognized that there was need for greater flexibility to respond to the changing financial system. There was a need for these financial institutions to directly access the capital markets for their funds needs.So a number of infrastructure finance companies were set up.Some of them have become fully private like ICICI while others have been partly privatized. like REC and PFC.Besides a number of private companies have recently become big players in the infrastructure financing space like SREI,L&T Finance etc.Note with almost $1 trillion expected to be spent on infrastructure in India over the next 5 years,the scope for these companies is immense if they manage their assets-liabilities in a decent manner
July 3, 2011
Natural Gas in USA is seeing massive investments and interest due to very large shale gas discoveries enabled by improvements in Gas Drilling and Extraction Technology.Billions of Dollars have been invested by domestic and international oil and gas companies.Plans are being made to Export Natural Gas from America as the price of Natural Gas in USA has now become considerably lower than other parts of the world.While prices of other Fossil Fuels like Oil and Coal are rising at steep rate,Natural Gas Prices have fallen even below the 2008 crisis levels and are now at around $3.5/mmbtu.With production increasing Natural Gas is increasingly looking to garner marketshare gains in the energy sector in the US.Countries around the world like India and China are also looking to tap shale gas deposits as Energy Scarcity increases around the globe.
June 1, 2011
The Government on India is proposing to introduce mandatory blending of ethanol in transport fuels to the extend of 5%.This means that the major transport fuel providers like IOC,BPCL and other will have to ensure that 5% of the petrol they sell will be mixed with 5% ethanol.The US is the biggest user of mandatory blending which has recently come under harsh criticism.The reasons given for supporting blending is that it reduces the requirements of fossil fuels which leads to lower carbon emissions,improves energy security and reduces pollution.However none of these advantages are seen in real life.In fact it has the massively negative consequence of increasing food prices which leads to the starvation of the poor globally.The Corn Industry in the USA has become a major lobbying force which makes the US government persist with the policy resulting in sharp increase in corn prices to the detriment of consumers.
May 7, 2011
India's Shipping Industry has constantly declined despite the Indian economy growing by almost 8-10% in the past 5 years .Indian Flag Vessel marketshare has reduced to under 10% in 2010 from 37%.It is because the Shipping Industry suffers from a lack of good companies . The largest company is the state owned SCI which has been tardy in expanding capacity to take advantage.Recently SCI has given orders to increase fleet capacity by more than 50%.Government policies have also been not too favorable despite shipping being a very strategic industry from the point of view of defense.Note in times of war the country's merchant fleet forms one of the most important weapons in the arsenal needed for logistics and transporation of war materials and personnel.
Note Shipping is a cyclical industry and currently the industry is facing rough weather as the global shipping industry is facing a supply glut.However that's no reason for Indian shipping industry to face a trough as its marketshare remains quite low.Unlike other sectors like autos,steel,oil and gas,the shipping industry has failed to compete and as a result has become a minnow in its own backyard.
May 2, 2011
Air India which is India's government owned airline is a cesspool of corruption,sloth,mismanagement and inefficiency.Most of the the aircraft are worse than the second class cabins in Indian trains with cobwebs hanging and dirt piled around.The air hostesses are rude and hostile and over aged as well.The airline has one of the highest manpower to aircraft ratio in the world with more than 200 per aircraft.The airline routinely loses thousands of crores each year which is wasted on the employees who seem more like arrogant owners than workers.Government officials and politicians treat the airline as their personal property making passengers wait in case they are late.Note its not uncommon to find that the seats are torn up and dirty.If you are unlucky you might even find rats running on your feet as the dirtiness invites rodents to make Air India their home.While all airlines have faced tough years,even the worse private airline does not have rats running through them.
April 22, 2011
India's Oil and Gas Industry has an interesting mix of Oil & Gas companies from the government and private sector.Except for some companies providing ancillary and drilling services,most of the companies are huge with billion dollar balance sheet and huge operations as is the case with the Oil and Gas Industry worldwide.Except for Reliance Industries,the upstream sector of oil and gas production and distribution is dominated by government owned companies which are heavily regulated.Despite attempts at liberalizing the APMC and the operations of the PSU Oil Companies,HPCL,BPCL and IOC run billions of dollars in losses as they are forced to sell oil and gas products at below their cost.The government's policies are mostly ad-hoc compensating these companies through bonds and money transfers.It is quite strange as the minority investors are forced to pay for government subsidies for energy.India's Oil Subsidies has led to the flourishing of a massive Oil Mafia which does not think twice before killing government officials and has led to poor outcomes for the country.Despite this government stupidity,some government companies like GAIL,OIL India and ONGC which operates in the production and have to bear less of the subsidy burden have grown and performed admirably.In the private sector companies like Reliance,Aban,Great Offshore,Essar have managed to grow rapidly as well with varying degrees of success.Here is the list of the major Oil and Gas Companies in India.
April 5, 2011
Note none of the Indian automakers has a decent EV or a Hybrid selling in the Indian market.Foreign markets on the other had are seeing fierce competition amongst major auto makers to gain a first mover advantage.GM,Nissan,Toyota are the leader in this market with other car makers also in the process of getting in.Hectic alliances and JVs are being forged as this market segment promises to be the fastest growing as the governments give massive subsidies and push.It remains to be seen whether the government in India can push given its record.
March 19, 2011
India's Economy is being hampered in its growth trajectory by lack of infrastructure which is leading to supply side problems.India suffers woefully from a lack of roads,electricity,ports etc. and almost a trillion dollars is going to be spent in the next few years as demand outstrips supply.India's Machinery and Capital Goods Industry is set to capitalize on this strong growth and is already seeing massive orders which are 2-3 years worth of their annual revenue.While the stock valuations of the capital goods equipment manufacturers has come down a bit from the heavy days of 2008,they are still quite high reflecting the strong growth potential.India's Engineering Industry is also composed of a number of smaller manufacturers that export light engineering equipment worth several billion dollars mostly to developing countries.India's Machinery Sector is composed of a mix of government owned and private companies as well as the giant capital goods MCN conglomerates like Areva and others.Here is a list of the major Indian equipment manufacturers.
March 8, 2011
India is set to see a massive infrastructure capex cycle over the next decade as the existing infrastructure fails to support India's massive population.$500 Billion is expected to be spent in India's next 5 year plan with expenditure concentrated on roads,railways,ports,water,power,transportation etc.Capital Goods,Construction and Real Estate Companies will benefit hugely from this capex cycle.A Number of Companies have been raising capital from the Indian Stock Markets as India requires massive amounts of capital to fund its ambitious growth plans. Here is the list of top construction companies in India on the basis of their tie-ups with their international counterparts, technological advancements, generating money from the market to trigger their expansion plans and for establishing an entire township in the wastelands and making it the hottest commercial destination.Note Infrastructure companies in recent days have taken a massive beating falling to their 2008 Lehman lows.This is due the the numerous scams hitting the country,delays due to land acquisition,high interest rates and slow execution.However the long term potential of these construction/EPC companies in India remains excellent due to the massive investments.
March 7, 2011
Some of the airplanes make a rickety bus in Indian cities seem better while the service staff can be highly rude.Note most of these jobs are secure for life giving very little incentive for the Air Indian employees to improve their performance.As a result you can expect the worst.While a number of PSUs in India have improved tremendously after public listing and liberalization,Air India has seemingly got worse.The company makes massive losses and has to be bailed out by the government.There is total lack of accountability in Air India and little impetus for reform.The government ministers want to keep the Air India to keep milking money.A new panel has now suggest that the government of India keep giving regular billions to keep the airline afloat as it flies to unprofitable routes.Another stupid reasoning because these routes can be easily be auctioned out to the lowest cost private airline.Why the government needs a state owned airline is beyond me as it can easily commandeer the aircraft of private airlines in times of war etc. like the US does.But then how will corrupt ministers make money.
March 1, 2011
India's Transport Policy is an unmitigated disaster with traffic congestion frequently killing people.The lack of roads and traffic planning has made transport in Indian cities a daily monstrous headache for commuters.The use of modern transport which does not cause pollution and reduces congestion is the need of the hour.The government seems to be moving slowly in that direction.While MNRE had announced a capital subsidy for Green Transport earlier,the Finance Minister cut excise and custom duties on Green Vehicles as well.India's Union Budget did not have much for the Green Industry except a piffling Rs 200 crore fund for the environment and the cuts of duties for EVs.
February 28, 2011
Indian Stock Markets are full of stock market manipulators and operators trying perennially to loot the small investor with the regulator SEBI mostly turning a blind eye.Pump and Dump IPO issues,circular stock rigging in small caps,corporate governance issues in even large companies are quite endemic.Investing in the Indian markets is a very hazardous activity for the small investor.Its not only the Indian companies but also large reputed MNCs who also keep pulling fast ones on the minority shareholders.The Cairn-Vedanta deal is a recent example where the promoters are rewarded at a higher premium in takeovers through legal shenanigans by large corporate groups.
February 15, 2011
The recent Supreme Court case dealing with the phone tapping of a political leader who has fallen on bad days has revealed an astounding fact.The Indian Government taps more than 100 phones a day just from a single telecom operator.When the Supreme Court castigated Reliance Telecom for tapping the phone based on a phony letter full of bad grammar,the operator revaeled that it had recieved requests to tap 150,000 phones over a period of 5 years.This reveals a massive systematic abuse by the government of its powers.This sort of behaviour seems more like that of a police state like Egypt rather than a flourishing democracy.Talking on the mobile phone has suddenly become a dangerous activity as Big Brother Indian government is listening to most of the country's communications.The recent Nira Radia phone tap leak shows the complete respect for privacy.It is not only the government,the service providers in the country have scant respect for your privacy.Telecom operators,Banks,Travel Agencies will sell your information for a pittance to marketing agencies.Telecom operators will not only sell your information but also the list of all your contacts.
December 20, 2010
India's top leaders don't have to suffer from the daily travails of monstrous transport problems as their security convoys have the roads cleared for them.Even a minor functionary has red lights blazing on the top of their security cars and flouting all traffic rules as policemen salute and clear the way.There is no concern about the plight of normal people who on top of the daily traffic jams have to face an additional ordeal due to the stoppage of vehicles for the passage of the VIP entourage.Even ambulances and emergencies are not spared as a person died of a heart attack after getting stuck for 30 mins.Note people dying in traffic jams has become a normal thing in India these days as serpentine traffic jams make it almost impossible for ambulances to transport time critical patients on time.Indian cities have become traffic hells as motorists fail to follow any traffic rule or regulation.Policemen trying to correct errant drivers are frequently beaten up by taxi/auto unions .Red lights are not followed by a lot of the vehicles and traffic rules exist only on paper.Huge numbers of casualties are reported every year which are easily preventable.But for a totally corrupt bureaucracy and police,these problems are not a concern at all.
December 6, 2010
Here Honda which is a Joint Venture between Japanese Automajor Honda and the Hero Group of India is restructuring such that Honda will exit the JV.Note Hero Honda has been immensely successful over the last 2 years riding a vehicle boom in India.While other autos stocks like Mahindra,Tata Motors have risen a lot,Hero Honda has been the star with its leading marketshare in the motorcycle market of India.The terms of the deal in which Honda will sell its 26% stake in the company to the Hero Group is very damaging to minority investors in the JV.According to the deal proposed by the Hero Group and accepted in principle by Honda,the Hero Group will get the 26% at a sharp discount from its market price and in return Honda will get much higher royalties for the next 3 years.This is an open and blatant looting of the minority investors.Note the beneficiaries of this deal will be the promoters at the expense of minority investors since they will have to bear the burden of much higher royalties in the future.
November 23, 2010
India has followed the example of Korea,China,Japan,USA and others in providing a capital subsidy to promote the use of Green Transport in India.Note China and Korea have been very aggressive in providing support and subsidy to the Green Industry.USA has also been providing soft loans and capital grants for manufacturing to Electric Vehicles and Lithium Batteries besides spending millions of dollar in R&D.Obama wants the US to become a leader in Battery Manufacturing with a 40% Global Marketshare while China recently unveiled a plan to create national champions in the Green Car Industry.Japan has also been supportive of Hybrid and Electric Car Technology with Honda and Toyota looking to dominate this emerging Auto Category.
November 23, 2010
Shipping Corporation of India (SCI),the government owned carrier is coming out with a Follow on Public Offering (FPO) of 84,690,730 Equity Shares to divest 18% of its equity which will be equally shared by the company and the government.At the current price the company will raise around Rs 600 crores for the company with another Rs 600 crore going to the government. SCI is India's largest shipping line by tonnage deriving most of its revenues from oil/gas transport.SCI like other shipping companies has faced a very bad 2009 due to the sharp contraction in world trade and dropping in shipping rates.However results have started to improve with the improvement in the world economy and it is returning to its normalized sales and profits.The valuation of the company is not expensive according to normalized profits however note that shipping sector in general does not enjoy high p/e due to the cyclical and capex intensive nature of the business.The pricing of SCI has not been decided as of now,in the secondary market it trades at Rs 156 which is near its 52 week low in anticipation of the share dilution due to the FPO.Here is a list of the pros and cons.
November 13, 2010
4) Parking Fights - Most of Indian cities are unplanned without any parking for most houses.This leads to a huge problem in terms of illegal parking.Even Legal Parking sees fights between neighbours leading to fights and sometimes even deaths.With thousands and millions of car hitting the roads every day and month,the problem is growing even more acute.No solution in sight as Indian politicians happily line up their pockets in corruption scams.
Summary
India's Transport Policy is a total mess with no solution in sight.Public Transport is not given enough money or resources to make a difference while Indian auto companies are making huge profits.Construction of the recent Metro Railway to Delhi's satellite city of Gurgaon has already been filled to capacity not reducing the pressure on the main highways which remain chock a block with cars 24 hours a day.India needs to massively invest in public infrastructure and dis-incentivize private modes of infrastructure like cars through congestion and fuel taxes.
October 5, 2010
India suffers from a lack of variety as well as depth in ETFs compared to developed markets such as USA.Only Benchmark Asset Management Company (AMC) has seriously invested in the ETF space and its NiftyBeES ETF which follows India's Nifty Index is the most successful one so far.India's Infrastructure Sector has attracted a lot of investor interest given the stupendous $500 Billion Investment planned over the next 5 years.This will be 2.5x the investment in the past 5 years and will help India's crumbling ports,roads,railways,power and communications sectors to gear up to India's 8-9% GDP growth.Recently EGShares launched INXX which also markets itself as a play on India's Infrastructure Growth in the US Markets.However that ETF was found wanting in a lot of areas.The new InfraBeES ETF launched by Benchmark seems much better than INXX and has been launched in the Indian markets.This ETF is based on CNX Infrastructure Index and its 1 unit will be 1/10th of that Index.Here are some of the key features of this new ETF
September 29, 2010
2) Expensive Valuation - Despite Negative Cash Flows for 3 out of the last 5 years,Cyclical Industry and Customer Concentration Risk,the Management wants around 35x P/E Valuation for their company.This is quite amazing as I would not consider the company a Buy at even 20x.However even shadier and crappier issues have managed to listed.Prakash Steelage,Aster Silicates are all examples of investors trying their hand at such Junk.
3) Customer Concentration - The Company is dependent on a few customers like Tata Motors and Indian Railways for most of its revenues.Competition for supplying Wagons to Indian Railways has increased drastically with even State Owned Companies joing the fray.CV is a cyclical industry and margisn in the CV Body Building Business are nothing great.The Company has failed to show consistent margins in the business
Summary
This is one of the more crappier issues to hit the market.Investors should not be even considering subscribing to the issue given the bad management history,cyclical sector and competition.Margins are nothing great.Growth has been inconsistent and the stock is overvalued even at half of its asking price.
September 5, 2010
Indian Cities are in general totally unorganized with drivers being scant attention to traffic rules.Space constraints make most cars park illegally as there are no garages.In India's Capital Delhi,it is a common sight to see fight between neighbours for parking spaces.Some of these fights have even led to murders and jail terms.Road Rage has become common malaise as nobody follows traffic rules and jams stretch on for hours.Indian cities are seeing a huge influx of cars on a daily basis with little expansion in road infrastructure.Sick people are known to have died in traffic jams as ambulances can't navigate the serpentine jams.
August 23, 2010
This Port Stock maybe a good buy for all the India Infrastructural Growth Faithful but not for a value investor.This company still have to prove it can generate earnings on a sustainable basis.While a number of PE players have paid more than the issue price in this company,this still does not justify a buy in my opinion.This company might be a good stock to own in 2-3 years but currently you can avoid this issue.
August 20, 2010
Note India is the 2nd faster growing economy in the world and presents a lucrative market for US MNCs facing a slowing domestic economy.Also unlike China,India does not have a deficit-surplus issue with the US.India is a crucial market for US which wants to double exports in the next 5 years.India can put punitive duties on imports of aircraft products.Note US exported more than $2 billion in airplane and space parts from the US in 2009 and is expected to grow this strongly in 2010 as well.India can easily replace Boeing with European manufacturer Airbus.India will be the biggest aircraft market in the world in the next 5-6 years as air traffic explodes.Airbus and Boeing are fierce rivals with their disputes frequently putting EU and the US government in WTO disputes.
July 29, 2010
Suzuki which is a global Tier 2 automaker is the biggest automobile company in India through its Indian subsidiary Maruti.The company which was formed in the […]
July 19, 2010
While their growth and margins are comparable to the private and foreign owned banks in India,the P/E multiple is much lower despite lower risks.The cause of this discount become apparent when you consider some of the loans these banks make.LIC had come under a cloud in nineties for making investments and loans to favored companies