While US Solar Installers are making Hay while the Chinese Solar Panel Companies flood the world with super cheap solar modules,Western solar manufacturers are being killed at an astounding rate.The second biggest thin film solar panel company in the US United Solar Ovonic has gone belly up.The company was fighting a losing batter as the more efficient crystalline solar panel prices went below its production cost.The company had tried to fight in a the niche of BIPV solar panel market but could not survice. After First Solar,Energy Conversion Devices seemed the mostly likely viable company in Thin Film Technology.After a few quarters of profits in 2008,the company went into the red as its flexible a-Si modules failed to cut costs as fast as others.It has been shutting factories in the US and shifting to low cost locations.
So what are the criterea for staying alive in 2012
a) Government Support in Some Form – Most of the Tier 1 Chinese Solar Companies will fall into this bracket. However given that there are so many you would have to look at the biggest like Suntech, LDK, Yingli for survival in any case. LDK is a BANKRUPT COMPANY ,the only reason it continue to produce a solar panel is because of the Chinese government support
b) Low Cost – Though seems like an obvious idea, there are still companies existing which have high costs like Q-Cells, REC. You just can’t invest in them given that even low cost is a necessary though not sufficient condition to survive
c) Branding – Very necessary to get financing for solar projects as without a brand you are not bankable and will have to sell at a 10% discount in a market which is already selling at below cost
Solar Thin Film Technology has been growing rapidly despite falling costs of the mainstream Photovoltaic Crystalline Silicon Technology.While the current solar supply glut has resulted in some of the thin film solar film companies going out of business,big thin film suppliers continue with their growth plan.Solar Thin Film Technology is supposed to be the 2nd Generation successor to the mainstream Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) Technology which accounts for around 85% of world production.While a number of Weaker Hands in Thin Film have downed shutters,Thin Film Producers continue to grow and expand.The massive growth potential of Solar Energy makes it possible for both of these PV technologies to flourish.Thin Film Technology unlike c-Si has a number of variants.Amorphous Silicon (a-Si),Copper Indium Gallium Sulphide (CIGs) and Cadmium Tellurium (Cd-Te) are the 3 main types of Thin Film Technology.There are a number of manufacturers of all of these 3 types of Technology.CIGs Technology is said to have the most potential in improving efficiency and competing with c-Si,however Cd-Te is currently the top dog as the world’s biggest solar producer First Solar currently uses this technology.a-Si Technology is not that hot with low efficiencies however Oerlikon and Sharp are pushing ahead with developing this technology.
Solar Energy is the fastest growing industry in the USA and has been one of the fastest globally as well with solar demand rising by more than 150% in 2010 fueled by massive cuts in prices of solar panels especially those from China.While this has led to a major drop in solar energy stock prices this has also led to a massive boost in volumes due to demand elasticity.Only the top solar companies will be able to survive this brutal consolidation that is taking place with some companies like Solyndra already consigned to the death list.Solar Industry is a global one and has a big supply chain as well.This means that looking at only one stock market will deprive you of better opportunities that might exist in other stock markets.There is also a big supply chain associated especially with crystalline solar panels.There are companies that exist only in Polysilicon,Wafers,Cells,Modules.There are also companies that are suppliers of material like encapsulants and metal alloys to these industries.This article will give you a very broad idea on the complete list of solar energy stocks that exist in each part of the supply and different parts of the world.You can also look at the 2 solar ETFs that trade on the US stock markets TAN and KWT .
The Taiwanese Solar Industry has become the 2nd largest in the world following in the footsteps of China.Taiwanese Solar Industry has a longer history than the Chinese with Solar Cell Makers Motech and E-Ton establishing themselves globally way back in 2006.However the steep fall in solar panel prices following the Lehman crisis had led to losses for these companies as the Chinese companies surged ahead using their low cost manufacturing.The crisis also led to the emergence of newer Taiwanese companies like Gintech,Neo Solar which are growing at extremely fast rates.Note Taiwan is a hub of semiconductor manufacturing with leading companies like TSMC,AUO,UMC,HTC etc.Solar Industry uses many of the same technologies,raw materials and techniques common to semiconductor and Display Panels Production giving Taiwanese firms a natural advantage.Taiwan has been predominantly present in the crystalline Solar Cell part of the supply chain and lacks a big manufacturer of polysilicon ( though a facility has been started).The lack of vertical integration has also made the costs of the Taiwanese industry higher.The entry of large companies like AUO,TSMC has further increased the competition in the Taiwanese market.Note Taiwan’s government has also promoted the use of solar energy in the country through the use of a Feed in Tariff program.
First Solar,the US based Cadmium Tellurium (Cd-Te) is the lowest cost panel producer in the world today if you don’t include any penalty for low efficiency.Even if you penalize the Cd-Te Technology for its lower efficiency vis-a-vis the higher efficiency crystalline technology,First Solar is clearly the leader with a core cost of 74c/watt.The company has a roadmap of reducing the cost to 52c/watt by 2014 and given its track record it seems quite achievable.In Cd-Te,some new competitors have claimed even lower costs than First Solar but they have yet to prove it in large scale production.General Electric,Abound Solar are some of the other Cd-Te players which are planning commercial production in a year or two.But with around 2 GW of capacity,they will have a lot of catching up to do.