Another Foreign Asset Manager exiting Competitive Indian Mutual Fund Industry

4 Feb, 2012
Finance

The Indian Mutual Fund and Asset Management Companies are  facing tough times and foreign asset managers are exiting in droves. Fidelity has put up  its $2 billion of funds on the auction block  trying to find a buyer as it exists India. This is only after a couple of months when Blackstone another of the trillion dollar asset managers existed the Indian business. In 2008 during the boom times, every Tom Dick and Harry of the asset management business wanted to get a piece of the Indian pie. The local brokerages were commanding super high valuations while growth and profits seemed endless.

However the Fairy Tale has ended with most MF companies reporting losses and declining revenues from higher competition . With Technology changing the face of the financial industry, its only the very nimble who have been making money .Others are trying to diversify into related areas to retain profitability. Fidelity one of the largest asset managers has a good presence in India but wants to exit. It has a technology services back end operation as well which it has been trying to sell for a long time. However in case of the MF it should have better luck given the size of the corpus . It is trying to get a 10% of the AUM as the sell price for its Indian business.

Indian Stock Brokers going Bankrupt

The Indian Stock Brokers have seen a very tough past couple of years after the Lehman crisis.Most of the larger listed Indian  investment banking companies have seen their valuation and stock prices keep touching all time lows.The reason is that competition has been fierce as a number of domestic and foreign brokerages entered the financial industry in 2008 during the boom.While the stock market volumes have gone down substantially the number of players fighting for a shrinking pie have  gone up.

While the larger stock brokers have seen reduced profits,the smaller ones have had to shut down or sell.This trend has been exacerbated last year with the rise of computer controlled algorithmic trading.Most of these small brokers which used arbitraging strategy to generate profits have seen their main business evaporate.Retail investors in India have also avoided the stock market which has become a corruption landmine.With even top institutions like GMO,Goldman becoming victims of frauds,individual investors have no chance.Also market operators have made the Indian stock market a pump and dump heaven even as SEBI takes a long time to crack down on the abuses.

Other reasons for the failure are

a) Decrease in cash volumes which decreases the brokerage

b) Securities transaction tax

c) Importance of Technology which requires higher investment

The Top Asset Management companies in India are:

  1. UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd. – UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd. (UTIAMC) is a company incorporated under The Companies Act, 1956. It came into existence in 2002, as the Asset Management Company of the UTI Mutual Fund. The paid up capital of UTIAMC has been subscribed by four sponsors: State Bank of India, Life Insurance Corporation of India, Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank. UTIAMC, apart from managing the schemes of UTI Mutual Fund, also manages the schemes transferred/migrated from the erstwhile Unit Trust of India.
  2. Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd. -  It is one of India’s leading and amongst most valuable financial services companies in the private sector. Reliance Capital Asset Management Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Reliance Capital Limited, acts as the AMC to the Reliance Mutual fund. Reliance Capital has interests in asset management and mutual funds; life and general insurance; commercial finance; stock broking; investment banking; wealth management services; distribution of financial products; exchanges; private equity; asset reconstruction; proprietary investments and other activities in financial services. Reliance Capital has a net worth of Rs. 7,810 crore and total assets of Rs. 31,994 crore  as on March 31, 2011.
  3. SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. -  SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. is one of the leading fund houses in the country. SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. is a joint venture between ‘The State Bank of India’ and Société Générale Asset Management (France), one of the world’s leading fund management companies. SBI Funds management manages over Rs 38,782 crores of assets and has a diverse profile of investors making their investments. In 20 years of operation, the fund has launched 38 schemes with consistent returns.
  4. HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd. – was incorporated in 1999, and was approved to act as an Asset Management Company for the HDFC Mutual Fund by SEBI. In terms of the Investment Management Agreement, the Trustee has appointed the HDFC Asset Management Company Limited to manage the Mutual Fund. The paid up capital of the AMC is Rs. 25.169 crore. The shareholding pattern is Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited 59.98%, Standard Life Investments Limited 39.99% & Other Shareholders 0.03%. The AMC also provides portfolio management / advisory services and activities are not in conflict with those of the Mutual Fund.
  5. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. – is a privately owned investment manager. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. is a joint venture between ICICI Bank & Prudential Plc, one of the United Kingdom’s largest players in the financial services sectors. It manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced mutual funds. As an Asset Management Company, the company has over 15 years of experience and are currently managing a comprehensive range of schemes of more than 46 Mutual funds and a wide range of PMS Products for its investors, spread across the country.
  6. Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd. - Franklin Templeton which is one of the biggest Global Asset Managers has a major presence in India as well.It is one of the oldest players in the India.
  7. Birla Sun Life Asset Management Co. Ltd. - is the investment manager of Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund. The Fund offers an array of savings and investment products for its individual, corporate and institutional investors and also manages two offshore funds. The fund house  had an average assets of over Rs.65,000 crore including offshore funds (as on 31 March 2010). It is  ranked amongst the top five asset management companies in the country.
  8. Sundaram BNP Paribas Asset management Co. Ltd. -  is a privately owned investment manager, being a joint venture between Sundaram Finance and French bank BNP Paribas. It invests in the public equity and fixed income markets of India. The firm employs fundamental and quantitative analysis stock picking & in-house and external research to make its investments. The average assets under management was Rs. 12,827 crores as on March 31,2008.
  9. TATA Asset Management Ltd. - The company’s principal activity is to act as investment manager to the Tata Mutual Fund. It has a client base of over 1 million people.  The company manages funds across the entire risk-return basis. These include equity funds, balanced funds and debt funds.
  10. DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd.- DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund was set up as a Trust and the sponsors are DSP ADIKO Holdings Pvt. Ltd. & DSP HMK Holdings Pvt. Ltd. (collectively) and BlackRock Inc. DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. is the investment manager to DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund.It invests in variety of equity related, fixed income & hybrid schemes.

Fidelity

Fidelity Investments Worldwide is in talks to sell its mutual fund business in India, a person with direct knowledge of the development said on condition of anonymity. Fidelity is seeking a valuation of Rs. 1000 crore for its asset management arm.
Fidelity started operations in India in 2004 and managed assets worth close to Rs. 9000 crore as of December 2011 according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI).

Blackstone

The Blackstone Group, one of the largest private equity groups globally, is exiting its biggest India-focused close-ended mutual fund scheme: India Fund Inc.The company will transfer the management of the fund to Aberdeen Asset Management Asia. The deal awaits stockholders’ approval on November 16. Another scheme, the Asia Tigers Fund of $60 million, is also being sold to Aberdeen. Besides the change in management, the deal size was not disclosed.

Solar Tiles in Australia – Suppliers/ Distributors Wanted

4 Feb, 2012
Australia,Solar Energy

One of my readers wants to install solar tiles in Australia and would like suppliers.Please contact if you can do so

We are researching into the best BIPV solar tiles that are available here in Australia. We want to build our home this year we are planning to build a home with the help of a company who does kit homes and will design one for us like this

We would like to incorporate BIPV solar tiles or roofing when we build – so we are trying to find out a this point what products are now available in Australia and what our choices would be and the range of prices each would be in …just to give us a starting point as we begin to pull all the ideas together ?

We’d really appreciate any information you can send our way that would help us achieving this – the brand/type of BIVP we can use, the best inverter and battery you’d recommend – obviously it will depend on where we are and how much sun our roof will get – but we plan to make it as much as is possible as we’d like to be able create 100% of our power needs or if not at least 80 % . At present as a guide my household uses  approx 10.7 khw of power a day – so that will give you an idea of how many solar tiles we’d need perhaps …if the sun was at its optimum ? We hope to be building on a reasonably sunny block between Ferntree Gully and Belgrave on the high side near bushland …beginning in a couple of months or so

Here is a list of the main Solar Shingle Manufacturers

  1. Energy Conversion Devices (Uni Solar) – After First Solar,Energy Conversion Devices is the second largest US company in Thin Film Technology.After a few quarters of profits in 2008,the company went into the red as its flexible a-Si modules failed to cut costs as fast as others.It has been shutting factories in the US and shifting to low cost locations.Still one of the biggest independent Thin Film Producers.Seems more likely that it will be bought out then survive independently.The company sells solar shingles mainly in Italy and France.The reason is that those countries give higher subsidy for BIPV applications under which solar shingles made by Uni Solar qualify. PowerShingle is the brand under which Uni Solar sells its solar shingles.
  2.  Dow Chemicals – This Chemicals Conglomerate has started producing it properietary Solar Shingles recently.While the company first showcased its DOW™ POWERHOUSE™ SOLAR SHINGLE in 2009,these solar tiles will be available commercially only this year.Note Dow uses the same thin film technology Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) used by UniSolar.The company has delayed the introduction of the solar shingles technology despite developing them as far back as 2009.The company was supposed to start a factory in Brazil.The company claims that the installed cost of Solar Shingles will be lower than solar panels (though its difficult to think that it will be possible with solar panel prices crashing to as low as $1/watt nowadays).It is not know what the Dow Solar Shingles cost will be
  3. Atlantis Energy Systems was founded in 2002 .They manufacture custom solar BIPV Systems (Building Integrated PhotoVoltaic). They  produces solar BIPV glass and solar PVSunSlate Roof Tiles in the USA.
  4. Sunpower (Total) – Sunpower is a vertically integrated solar energy company known more for its highest efficiency solar panels.Sunpower is present in all 3 segments of the solar sytems business namely a)residential b)commercial and c) utility.
    Sunpower makes the highest efficiency, building integrated SunTiles. The SunTile brand blends into flat and S-Tile roofs to convert sunlight into clean energy. SunTiles are all-black and  built to withstand 110 mph wind-driven rain.
  5. Sharp the Japanese Zaibatsu known more for its Electronics Products is also the world’s No 1 Company in terms Solar Module Revenues.Despite its leadership in c-Si Technology,it has shifted focus to a-Si thin film due to higher costs.Sharp has started shipping a-Si modules from its 1 GW capacity plant in Sakai. It also sells solar shingles in the form os 64 watt  solar panels .The Sharp ND62RU1F is a group of solar shingles all arranged together.It is not really a solar shingle since it does not integrate into the roof but its light since its made of  thin film silicon technology and easy to install.

China India Trade Deficit rises to Sinister Heights of $27 Billion Officially and Much more Unofficially

3 Feb, 2012
China

China India Trade has been rising at very high growth rates over the last few years driven by the booming GDP growth in the fastest growing economies of the world. However India like other countries faces the mounting problem of a huge trade deficit with China which is growing all the time. Like Brazil ,USA this has become a major problem . Beside the official reported figures , there is a large clandestine trade takes place outside the normal channels. Massive imports from China go unreported to avoid excise duties and custom taxes. Both countries have corrupt officials and businessmen which facilitate trade without paying of taxes and duties. Unofficial Trade Deficit with China may be double the $27 billion reported in 2011.

Rising China and India Tensions

India and China are the Two Rising Global Behemoths with Relations between these most populated countries always being tense.Both countries share a similar history of colonization by Western Powers in the 17-20th Centuries and Independence being attained in the middle of the 20th Century.China and India also shared the same economic trajectory until 1979 when Market Reforms put China on track to become the 2nd largest economy in 2010.India also embarked on Reforms in 1991 and has started showing fast economic growth in recent times.The relations between these 2 countries are tense since the Border War fought between them in 1962.They have one of the longest borders in the world which is disputed.China recently upped the ante on claiming territorial rights over India’s North Eastern State of Arunachal Pradesh.

China’s Recent Provocations

Chinese provocations against India have been rising in recent times as the Chinese leadership wants to keep India off tilt.Here is a list of recent provocations against India

1) Stapling of  separate visas for India’s citizens from the state of  Jammu and Kashmir which is disputed with Pakistan

2) Trying to stall an ADB Loan to India’s state of Arunachal Pradesh

3) Support in Building Nuclear Reactors in Pakistan which regards India as an existential threat.It has also supplying Pakistan with missiles and  fighter aircraft.

4) Denial of visa to India’s top ranking military official on flimsy grounds leading to suspension of military contacts between the 2 countries

 5) Stationing of  11,000 troops in Gilghit Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) which India regards as a part of its own territory and over which India and Pakistan have fought 3 wars

Many of India’s top companies like BHEL,L&T are being hollowed out by Chinese competition of low cost goods and super cheap financing. Power, Telecom equipment form a major chunk of imports while India is primarily exports resource like iron ore. So what is happening is that India is become a resource vassal economy of China (though it may sound simplistic) . China puts up big trade barriers for India’s value added exports like pharma and Information Technology while putting no hurdles for import of resources.With the rapid growth rate of imports , India is in danger of becoming dependent on China for a number of goods as its industries shut down in the face of competion.

China captures almost Half of the Power Equipment Market in India raising Concerns

India’s private players like Tata Power,Reliance Power and others are in the process  of setting up massive mega coal plants using supercritical boiler technology.While L&T and BHEL,the two Largest Capital Equipment Companies have won a lot of orders,the sheer scale of Demand requires Huge Imports as well.Low cost Chinese equipment providers like Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric have won almost half of the power equipment orders raising concerns amongst the Indian administrators.

Solar Panels are a good example of one such good where Indian industries can’t compete in the face of Chinese subsidies to its own companies.

The Indian government is not going to impose any new duties on imports of Chinese solar cells. This is despite the petition by the Indian solar panel manufacturers to give a level playing field. Note Chinese solar panels have virtually destroyed the solar manufacturing industry in the West with big companies falling under the relentless price pressure where solar panel prices have gone down by 60% in one year. Only the Koreans seem to be standing up to the Chinese government backed top tier solar companies from China. The rest have mostly folded up and are facing survival questions including those from Taiwan. Indian solar companies were never that big and cost competitive anyway given the headstart and support of the Chinese backed companies. The price crash in 2011 has seen most of them close their factories as they can’t even cover their costs at the Gross Margin Level.

India China relations have never been that great on a geopolitical level with the 1962 War and unresolved border dispute in the north. Recently the imports of Chinese telecom equipment from Huawei and ZTE raised a massive ruckus with Indian telecom companies supporting the Chinese because of low cost equipment while security concerns were raised.

China has recently been in the news over Internet Espionage on defense and sensitive installations in India and USA. This has led to the high profile exit of Google from China.Recently a Canadian research organization revealed/alleged  how Chinese govt backed hackers had broken into Indian embassy and government computers.This has made the Indian government wary of allowing Chinese equipment suppliers into India’s communication sector.Though both ZTE and Huawei’s equipment is much cheaper compared to Nokia  Siemens,Alcatel and Ericsson , these companies face an uphill battler in India right now.

Rising Trade Deficit Concerns

India’s trade deficit with China is estimated to reach $60 billion by 2014-15, up nearly three-fold from $23 billion in 2010-11. Bilateral trade with China was $63 billion in 2010-11, with China accounting for $43 billion worth of imports.

“Participants at the inter-ministerial workshop were especially worried about forecasts that China could account for 75% of India’s manufacturing in the next five years, up from the present 26%,” the official said. The workshop was attended by officials of key ministries and departments, including finance, home and the department of industrial policy and promotion.

“Excessive dependence can be disruptive in case of strained relations,” said Narendra Sisodia, a defence analyst and former additional secretary of NSC Secretariat. In general terms, if a country that is supplying basic components to another stops supplies, it would hurt the importing country because its manufacturing will be adversely affected, he said. “Much also depends on whether a country has alternative sources of supply and how quickly those could be mobilised.”

 

 

Easiest Way to Become Super Rich in India – Become a Politician Crony (Ponty Chadha stashes $20 million cash in Mall Basement)

1 Feb, 2012
Indian Markets

India is a country with one of the biggest population of poor people living hand to mouth. But becoming super rich in this country is quite easy if you know how. All you have to do is become a political crony and start counting your millions if not billions. Corruption in India has become rampant with a scam being uncovered almost every day. Politicians and Businessmen have been jailed but they have managed to get out on bail using their millionaire lawyers to fake illness and other shenanigans. Some politicians are now involved in both professions with some rumored to be billionaires owning companies through surreptitious means and parking their money in Swiss banks. Business Groups in India see their shares rising and going down depending on which political party wins proving the nexus between politicians and businessmen. There has been no reforms to separate these two and now powerful politico-business dynasties have started ruling large parts of India.

Leaders of Political parties have their favorite businessmen which they shower with goodies. There are example galore which is described below. Today a businessman in Uttar Pradesh was found to have stashed around $20 million in cash in the basement of a mall that he owns. Ponty Chadha is  real estate and liquor tycoon with close ties with the leader to that state. Both industries are rampantly corrupt and sources of massive black money generation. Like other scamsters expect this one to get away too.

Nira Radia reveals Sordid Corruption Nexus – DB Realty owned by Pawar,Tata Companies TCS,Tata Motors Bending Backwards in giving Favors to DMK Raja for Telecom License

Nira Radia the millionaire lobbyist who became a public figure overnight as tapes leaked to her phone conversations were printed by the mass media has revealed sordid details about the politician businessmen nexus.In the chargesheet presented by the CBI to the Supreme Court she has revealed the multi billion dollar realty company DB Realty is a front for Sharad Pawar and controlled by him.This hardly comes as a surprise as powerful Agri Minister Pawar has been linked to a number of corruption scandals like the Lavasa Scandal,2G Telecom Scam,IPL Scam etc.Note DB Realty CEO has been directly implicated in the transfer of bribe giving to Raja the former Telecom Minister in exchange for a Telecom License at dirt cheap prices.It is a tribute to the power of Pawar that despite such massive circumstantial evidence against him and his family,there has been no court case or police charges against him.Note a number of big companies in India are known to be secretly owned and controlled by powerful politicians.Not that politicians don’t own  billion dollar businesses openly and use their political muscle to further their own interests in a blatant manner.

India Corruption Unlimited – Sharad Pawar gets Linked in yet another Scam (DB Realty,Pune,Sule)

Sharad Pawar,India’s powerful agricultural minister and the president of the international cricket body ICC has managed to get involved in most corruption scams coming out in the last year or so.However he has managed to come out unscathed even as his fingers are in multiple corruption pies.The name of Pawar and his daughter Supriya Sule ( who is a MP what a surprise) has come up in multiple corruption scandals like the 2G Telecom Scandal,IPL Cricket Scandal and Lavasa Scam etc.However it points to his influence and reach,that nothing has happened.He is the leader of a regional party which is part of the ruling coalition in the centre.

The ICC and the BCCI are one of the most corrupt and opaque sporting bodies in the country.Cricket is a religion in India and generates billions of dollars in revenue which is monopolized by the BCCI which is a private cabal of corrupt politicians and businessmen.TheBCCI runs with no accountability and the corruption of the BCCI is openly condoned.The IPL Scam involving Modi revealed the extent of rot in the game administration and led to his ouster.However his mentor Pawar escaped without a blot.The arrogance and power of the BCCI is reflected in the fact it has refused to let enter any members of the electronics media into the final match of the World Cup despite a request from the information ministry.Now there is news that Pawar has close links with the real estate firm DB Realty which is another billion dollar corruption based company.DB Realty is one of the ringleaders in the 2G Telecom Scam being investigated by the Supreme Court.It has led to the jailing of India’s former Telecom Minister and revealed the systematic corruption in all major institutions in the country.

India’s Business and Political Elite continue to Mock Indian Laws;Raju gets Bail

India’s Business and Political Elite continue to mock the Indian Legal System through loopholes and expensive lawyers.I had written earlier in a post of how Satyam Scandal Kingpin Ramalinga Raju enjoyed luxurious facilities at hospitals despite his jail term.He had managed to avoid questioning by the authorities through excuses of bad health and now he has managed to get bail for the Biggest Corporate Scandal to hit India.This reduces the trust of the Indian citizens on  the State and tarnishes the reputation of the country as a vibrant democracy.A number of scandals have hit the Indian legal system with a powerful criminal convicted of murder recently partying in the capital.He had got time away from jail on the recommendation of the state government.Politically connected powerful criminals manage to enjoy jail time through lenient jail authorities who let them out frequently on flimsy conditions.Even in Jail,they enjoy a privileged existence denied to common criminals.Their army of expensive lawyers keeps finding loopholes to get off their rich clients as India’s Justice System remains mired under millions of long due cases.

It is a matter of concern that everyone of the accused in this scandal has managed to get bail as India’s premier agency CBI has not been able to build a watertight case till now.This is despite Raju accepting his role as the master rogue in the siphoning of millions of dollars from India’s 4th largest IT company at that time.Despite the media spotlight on this case,blatant corruption has won again.

“Corruption as Tradition” Justification in Bangalore Land Scam by Chief Minister of Indian State

Corruption in India has taken a widely virulent and blatant form with scams popping up almost everyday.Greed is Good has become  the motto for India’s Role Models in Sport and Military as well.India’s Politicians are Leading the  protagonists with Realty being the Main Theme.Note Real Estate companies in India are notorious for corruption with the sector being avoided by Fund Managers.India’s Southern State of Karnataka is known for its IT Industry with capital Bangalore famous as a Knowledge Hub.However the Politicians of that State have made it the Corruption Capital with Bangalore equally famous for Land Grabbing and Real Estate Scams by Bureaucrats and Politicians.Note the rest of Karnataka has also been made famous by Illegal Mining.Robber Mining Barons have become powerful enough to topple governments with some heading the administration as Ministers.

 The Chief Minister of the State has justified Corruption in Land Dealings as Tradition.Being Accused of favorably allocating Prime Land to Companies owned by his sons,he has sought to defend himself by accusing previous administrations of indulging in land scams as well.India’s Image of Corruption has become bleaker by the Day with the Commonwealth Games Scam,Adarsh Housing Scam and the Multi Billion 2G Telecom Spectrum Auction Scam.Now comes this Scam perpetrated by the leaders of the Chief Opposition Party.India’sPolitical and Business Elite have scant regard for India’s Justice System as hardly anyone is prosecuted for Corruption.Only some small fish are made scapegoats while the Ringleaders  blatantly and openly indulge in manipulation and corruption.

Another Brutal Year for Solar and Wind Stocks in Offing Despite Growing Demand

1 Feb, 2012
Solar Energy,Wind Energy

Solar and Wind Stocks have been massacred in 2011 mainly due to the following reasons

1) Chinese oversupply which is outcome of its massive industrial overcapacity and investment. This has decimated wind and solar companies in the West while also leading to margins and profits collapsing

China’s rise in solar manufacturing has been nothing short of spectacular.From less than 5% of world marketshare it has gone to more than 50% in the current quarter.Some of its companies like Trina and Yingli are the lowest cost producers of solar modules in the world today.The Europeans like Solarworld and Q-Cells which were dominant until 2 years ago have been swept aside with Q-Cells bleeding red ink . Even in wind energy , China’s growth over the last 2-3 years has been awesome with more than 100% CAGR . It has helped in growing wind turbine manufacturers through domestic content requirements.Now that these companies have sufficient technology and are able to leverage their low cost advantages , China has removed the restrictions in Jan 2010 to attack other markets. Vestas the leading European turbine manufacturer like the solar makers has fallen into the red. The only way for these companies to survive is to move their manufacturing to Asia . Ultimately the technology will also follow ( Applied Materials has also move its R&D to Shanghai). Just like the semi and electronics industry,Europe will start looking like a marginal player in the global alternative energy industry. Despite strong domestic  demand and policy support , the European industry has been outsmarted and outplayed by  the Chinese

2) Commoditazation of Technology and Erosion of Entry Barriers

3) Massive and Irrational Subsidies by Asian countries to support  Green Industry

Despite both Wind and Solar capacity growing strongly in 2011 the stocks have been punished.

2012 has a good chance to be another bad year for these stocks because

a) Wind Power in China has reached a plateau installing almost 50% of the global wind turbine installations

China Wind Power Market has become the biggest in the world with more than 18 GW of capacity installed in one single year, Note China has managed to double its capacity each year since 2005 and at the end of 2010 Wind Capacity totalled 44 GW which makes China the biggest Wind Power country in the world overtaking the USA.China has now got 7 of the Top 15 Global Wind Turbine Manufacturers and 2 of the Top 3 WTG Companies.China’s Massive Demand for Energy has made power plants mushroom in the country where more than 70% of the electricity is met by Coal.Wind Energy still forms only a small part of the power mix at less than 7% of the total power capacity and serves only a fraction of the Kwh of electricity given the lower load factor of Wind Power.Note Wind Power has grown in China as its Advantages as a Clean Source of Energy far outweigh its Cons.However the rapid demand growth has made a top inevitable as a country can only install that many megawatts in a year.

The 2 Biggest Signs of Trouble for the Chinese Wind Power Industry have been seen in the last couple of days.

1) Sinovel has canceled shipments of Electrical Control Systems (ECS) for its Wind Turbines from American Superconductor due to high inventory levels and refused past payments as well.With the biggest Manufacturer of Wind Turbines reporting inventory problems,the situation of the rest can’t be that good

2) The Chinese National Energy Bureau was considering tighter procedures that would include requiring local governments to get the written approval before going ahead with wind projects with installed capacity of less than 50 MW.Earlier it used to be more than 50 MW

3) Hundreds of Wind Turbines have not been connected to the Power Grid due to lack of capacity or transmission lines.China emphasises on investment without factoring in returns is one cause of these orphan wind turbines.

b) Solar Energy Growth may slowdown as well after a blistering 35% growth in 2011 as European countries slow / kill subsidies under the Debt Crisis.

c) Industries have too many players many of which are small and uncompetitive. Though a lot of solar companies have become bankrupt, there still exist too many.

Now a new wave of bankruptcies are on the way with Q-Cells likely facing a credit event as it needs to roll over convertibles which come due in February. Note Q-Cells has fallen a long way from being the biggest solar cell company in 2008. Miasole and Nanosolar were Private Equity backed CIGs darlings that were supposed to become the biggest thing following Firsst Solar . Now Nanosolar faceds executive exits while Miasole has fired large number of its workforce failing to find a big parent to support it. Note the smaller companies like Ascent Solar have found backers in Asia . Solar Technologies are seeing Darwin Survival of the Fittest with crystalline silicon solar panel technology beating out thin film solar and solar thermal technologies

APPENDIX

Wind Energy Stocks

1) Vestas – Vestas the largest Wind Turbine Company in the World has been facing one setback after another.The Danish Company which used to be a Green Investor Favorite till a couple of years can’t seem to find a buyer these days.Stiff competition from China,Slowdown in Wind Energy Farms in the West and now  Wind Blade Problems have formed a perfect storm for this company.

2) General Electric (USA) - General Electric is looking to Invest Heavily in the new Age Green Industry like other Industrial Giants like Siemens,ABB etc.General Electric or GE as it is popularly known is one of the biggest players in the Green Industry globally.It generated $18 billion in Ecomagination revenues in 2009 with $1.5 Billion in Investment.General Electric like other industrial conglomerates like Siemens,Areva and others are in fact low risk plays in the Green Investing sector.GE is strong across most of the Green Sectors today particularly in the area of Smart Grid and Energy Efficiency.GE has a 40-50% marketshare of the US market which is the 2nd largest in the world.Due to its vertical integration,it has one of the highest margins in the industry and remains a formidable player with its acquisition Enron’s Wind Turbine arm proving to be a masterstroke.

3) Gamesa (Spain) - Gamesa the Spanish Wind Turbine Producer and Wind Farm Operator has faced the worst year of its history in 2010.Like Vestas and Suzlon,2010 has been a cruel year for the Wind Industry in the Western Markets and the WTG Players dependent on those markets.Gamesa is one of the worst performing Wind Energy Stocks in 2010.Gamesa is looking to restructure its operations and concentrating on the offshore wind market by focusing on higher megawatt turbines.Gamesa is leading a massive Spanish Research Effort to develop a colossal 15 MW Turbine meant for the fast growing offshore wind sector.But this is a long term plan with 2020 set as the target for the complete development of this new Turbine.Meanwhile Gamesa has become the target of takeover speculation by one of the bigger Chinese Wind Turbine players like Sinovel,Goldwind etc.Gamesa has seen its revenue fall by 28% and profits by  71% with Operating Margins of 4-5%.Things don’t look too good for 2011 either though Orders have started ticking up

4) Suzlon Energy is the biggest Indian Wind Energy Company by far with 4-5 Gigawatts of WTG Capacity per year.However Suzlon has languished in red ink since the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.The company started by Tulsi Tanti in 1995 was a shining example of Asian CleanTech with a 10% global marketshare and ranking amongst the top 5 Wind Turbine Makers .Suzlon buoyed by its success had bought controlling equity stakes in Turbine Gears producer Hansen Transmission and European Wind Turbine producer Repower.Suzlon seems to be recovering with increase in orders particularly at its German subsidiary RePower,however a huge debt burden poses problems.

5) Siemens – The largest Green Company in the world,Siemens has a strong presence in the Wind Turbine Segment.The company is strong in Europe and is now expanding to emerging markets like Asia.Given its huge technological strengths in electrical equipment,power transmission and large project construction,Siemens is looking for a dominant role in the growing offshore wind market as well.

6) Goldwind - The Wind Energy Market in China has witnessed the growth of almost 90 companies with little differentiation competing fiercely on prices.This has led to low to zero margins for most of these companies.Goldwind has managed to rise above the competition by becoming the single largest Chinese player and looks to takeover the No.1 position in the world in the next few years.By taking bold risks and with the support of the government,Goldwind has become a threat to the established Wind Turbine Order

7) Sinovel – The 2nd largest Chinese Wind Power Company managed to do a successful IPO in Hong Kong last year despite long delays.The company is looking to expand in the foreign markets particularly the US market and has gotten a local management to help it penetrate the newer market.

8) Dongfang Electric - Dongfang Electric Corporation,China’s largest power equipment producer  is also the 3rd biggest Wind Turbine Producer in China as well .The company has managed to grow impressively like the rest of the Chinese and is looking to expand in foreign markets as well.Recently  bagged a 276 MW $203 million WTG supply contract with Abhijeet Group.

9) Ming Yang Power- Ming Yang is the only significant non-state owned Chinese Wind Energy Company with a 2009 marketshare of around 4%.The Company has a very short history installing its first Wind Turbine just 2 years ago and has seen an exponential growth riding on the incredible Wind Industry Growth in China.

10) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries , the massive Japanese Conglomerate is looking to overseas market for growing its Wind Energy Division.Mitsubishi like other Japanese companies are looking towards Green Industry for growth.Japan already possesses solid strengths in this area with its traditional focus on resource efficiency.While companies like Panansonic and Toyota looks towards Electric Vehicles and Batteries,Sharp and Kyocera towards Wind Energy,Mitsubishi is focusing its energy on the Wind Sector.

11) Enercon – Enercon is a privately listed German company which has almost 22 GW of Wind Turbine Installations in the world.Enercon was the first company to build a gearless Wind Turbine which is one of the biggest innovation in the Wind Energy Industry in recent times.

12) Nordex - Nordex is another German company in the Wind Turbine Industry which was the first one to build a 1 MW Turbine.The company has  not managed to grow fast as the other German companies like Enercon,RePower and Siemens.

13) United Technologies Corporation (UTC) - This US Giant Technology Conglomerate is still a small player in the World Wind Power Market.However it has increased its footprint by acquiring struggling independent US Wind Power company Clipper.

Solar Energy Stocks

Solar Cells Stocks

  1. JA Solar (JASO) ( The Biggest Solar Cell Producer in the World)
  2. Gintech (3514.TW) ( Biggest Solar Cell Supplier in Taiwan)
  3. Motech (6244.TW) ( Solar Cell Supplier in Taiwan with wafer and poly production as well)
  4. E-Ton (3452.TW) ( Survival is in question)
  5. Q-Cells (QCE.DE) The largest solar producer of cells in 2008 faced a horrendous 2009 running losses of as high as Euro 1 billion)
  6. Neo Solar (3576.TW)(Has been one of the fastest growing solar companies)
  7. Del Solar  ( Small Solar Cell Supplier)
  8. IndoSolar ( Small Solar Cell Supplier in India)
  9. Emcore (EMKR) ( Small Specialist suppliers of High Efficiency Multijunction Cells)

Solar Panels Stocks

  1. Suntech (STP) ( The biggest Chinese solar panel producer in the world)
  2. Trina Solar (TSL) ( The most valued Chinese solar panel supplier)
  3. Yingli Green Energy (YGE) ( Top 3 Chinese solar panel supplier)
  4. Jinko Solar (JKS)
  5. Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (Despite Canadian in the name is one of the biggest Chinese solar panel suppliers)
  6. Sunpower Corporation (SPWRA)( Makes the Most Efficiency Solar Panels,bought by French Giant Total)
  7. Hanwha Solar One (HSOL) ( Earlier known as Solarfun,bought by South Korean Conglomerate Hanwha)
  8. Sharp ( Biggest Japanese Solar Compan)
  9. Sanyo Panasonic( Sanyo plans to invest more than  70% of its total investment over the next  3 years in its renewable energy and energy storage segment)
  10. Kyocera(Kyocera is Japan’s second largest solar panel producing company)
  11. Mitsubishi( Mistubishi is another old time Japanese solar company which has a low profile solar module and system business)
  12. LG (It is selling solar modules in the South Korean and European markets and has 240 MW capacity)
  13. Samsung ( The company makes silicon solar cells and panels,will start making poly with MEMC)
  14. Hyundai ( The first South Korean company to move int solar panel production)
  15. Solarworld (SWV.DE)- Solarworld is the Biggest German producer of solar panels,the company is one of the few to still have operations in Europe and USA)
  16. Bosch (Automotive company,made expensive acquisitions,now moving production to Malaysia)
  17. Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy (Listed in China,integrated producer of solar panels)
  18.  AUO ( AUO has a  JV with SunPower’s to build 1.4 gigawatt third solar cell fabrication facility  in Malaysia)
  19. China Sunenergy(CSUN) (A Small China Solar Energy Cell and Panel Supplier)
  20. Arise Technologies (Canadian small suppliers of solar panels)
  21. BP (Outsources production of solar panels,sells under brandname )

GE View

General Electric Co. expects increased competition and a reduction in subsidies by cash-strapped governments to lead to more companies exiting the wind and solar power businesses, but the industrial behemoth still sees growing long-term demand.”There’s going to be a lot of casualties in the wind and solar businesses, there already are in solar,” John Krenicki, who leads GE’s energy division, told Reuters in an interview on Monday.

Wind Industry Oversupply , Sinovel Profits to Halve in 2012

Sinovel Wind Group Co., China’s biggest wind-turbine maker, expects its 2011 earnings to fall by more than 50 percent as heightened competition at home and abroad dragged down prices.

Rivalry within the market depressed prices, trimming revenue and profit margins, the Beijing-based company said yesterday in a statement. “Cyclical fluctuations” in the world economy also delayed some projects, curbing income, it said.

“It’s difficult for these guys to drive costs down at the same pace as revenue, so margins are getting squeezed,” Aaron Chew, an analyst with Maxim Group LLC in New York, said by telephone. Sinovel may still fare better than European counterparts such as Vestas because of lower labor expenses and more advantageous government subsidies in China, he said.

Lower Support

Vestas has cut sales forecasts twice since October after Asian competitors grabbed market share and U.S. and European governments reined in support for renewable power to curb budget deficits.

A tighter government approval process for projects in China has intensified competition further, spurring domestic companies to study expansion elsewhere. “We do not expect growth in wind installations in China in 2012 to 2014,” so growth abroad would allow the main Chinese players to boost sales, McLoughlin said.

Bad Journalism on German Solar Subsidies Analysis – Why Media persistently gets it wrong

1 Feb, 2012
Solar Energy

I continue to be surprised by bad and shallow analysis of renewable energy subsidies done by media. Most of it is due to bad research and lack of investigative and unbiased journalism. Writers with little or no background in energy or cleantech sensationalize an issue taking a report from some biased thinktank. Here is one example from a website called ironically Reason.com which you can read here http://reason.com/blog/2012/01/31/black-hole-sun-germany-spends-100-billio

What the writer is saying that Germany is spending massive amounts of subsidies to get little amount of power. What he has missed

1) He is not comparing the subsidies for solar with that of fossil fuels. Does he know that Fossil Fuel Subsidies globally amount to $550 billion a year which is many times more than that given to Solar, Wind and others.Even a developed country like Norway gives 5 times more subsidies to fossil fuels than renewable energy

Norway has been hailed as the toughest cutter of Greenhouse Gas Emissions amongst the developed countries promising to cut Carbon Emissions by  30-40% by 2020 from the 1990 Levels.Compared to this USA has promised a measly  17% cut from 2005 levels and the EU  only 20% by 2020 from 1990 levels.Norway’s cost of cutting emissions is also quite huge $200 a tons of Carbon Dioxide.Norway has also promised to cut Carbon Emissions internally rather than buying cheap carbon credits from abroad using its massive sovereign fund.Note the Cap and Trade Kyoto Protocol has been criticized for being ineffectual in curbing Global Warming.However a NGO reveal today that Norway’s spending on Fossil Fuel Subsidies is $1.4 Billion annually which is 5 times more than on its Subsidy for Greener Forms of Energy.Note $550 Billion is spent worldwide on subsidizing Fossil Fuel Energy which is multiples of that spend on Renewable Energy.Norway is a major Oil Producer and its Huge Sovereign Fund of  $450 Billion has been built mainly through Oil Revenues.Therefore the massive subsidies on Oil is not surprising though incompatible with its commitment towards Climate Change.

2) He says that 18 billion euros is the cost of solar energy over 20 years . He conveniently forgets/ does not know the basic concept of time value of money.

3) He does not consider the costs on health,pollution,mining deaths and other social costs of fossil fuel electricity. He forgets to mention the BP Oil Spill and Fukushima Disaster.

4) He says it is cheaper to do energy efficiency than solar energy , a fact that is well know but will energy efficiency alone solve our global warming problems. Nobody doubts the fact that energy efficiency is cheaper but you need renewable energy as well

Mainstream media is woefully inadequate in presenting the problems that we are faced with particularly in a topic as complex as climate change. Taking a report and presenting it without a balanced opinion makes it worse.

Germans are happy paying 10-15% extra for electricity  Green and Clean Energy which would make a Better World. Most of the other developed countries like USA,Canada have shown only shocking apathy towards global warming . Which is better , it does not take a rocket scientist to figure it out. Germany has alone brought solar energy prices near grid parity due to its strong and pragmatic support to green energy  .Though the FIT policy is not perfect it is much better than policies implemented elsewhere.

Read more on Pros and Cons of Renewable Energy here

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