Feed in Tariff | Green World Investor

Solar Energy Corporation of India to Supervise Indian Federal Solar Program

31 Jan, 2012

Solar Power in India has taken off under the ambitious JNNSM government subsidy scheme with almost 400 MW of Solar Capacity installed in 2011 . With various states like Gujarat, Karnataka coming up with aggressive solar subsidy schemes on their own as well, solar power capacity in India should surge by around 1 GW in 2012. This has made India one of the fastest growing solar markets in the globe right now.

India’s JNNSM scheme was managed by MNRE which is the Central Ministry for Renewable Power and NVVN which is the state owned utility’s NPTC trading arm . However note NTPC is a listed company and is getting into the production of solar power as well. So to have a regulator which is also a participant makes little sense. With the first phase of JNNSM to be complete next year, the scheme is being overhauled. The Indian government is going to turn over the supervision of its 20 GW by 2022 Solar Power scheme to a new entirty called Solar Energy Corporation of India.

JNNSM part 2 will start in 2013 and it will need more funding as it proposes to build 4-7 GW of capacity. The funding agency IREDA does not have the resources to finance such a big outgo which could easily see more than $5 billion in funding requirements. Note a number of international financial institutions like Exim Bank , ADB and KFW are already involved in funding solar energy in India.

JNNSM

he Indian Government’s launch of the ambitious Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission(JNNSM) was done with much fanfare with a target of reaching 20 GW of Solar Capacity by 2022 under 3 phases from the 81 MW currently.While the government had the best intentions and had laid down a well defined 10 year plan with subsidy support for both Solar Thermal and Solar PV Technology,it has already run into problems.Due to high interest the government went in for bidding of projects which led to irrationally low bidding from unknown firms.This has put the entire exercise in question with the the biggest private utility saying JNNSM is a failure.Without extensions of deadlines it looks highly unlikely whether the 37 winners will actually put up the plants.

JNNSM is divided into 3 phases with the ultimate goal of reaching grid parity with coal by 2030.I don’t know where they came with the 2030 figure as I think solar should reach grid parity much earlier and should be below coal cost much before

1)Phase I (up to 2012/2013) – remaining period of 11th five yr plan & first yr of 12th yr plan Target of 1100 MW
2) Phase II (2013-2017) – remaining 4 yrs of 12th five yr plan Target of 3000-10000 MW
3) Phase III (2017-2022) – 13th five yr plan 20000 GW overall

Funding of the JNNSM will be done by

1) Renewable Energy Credits (REC) – State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERC) to fix a minimum
percentage of energy purchase from renewable sources of energy

2) NTPC’s Trading Arm NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Ltd ) is chosen as the nodal agency for entering into a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with solar power developers.NTPC will mix expensive solar power with cheaper coal power .

3) Incentives

Zero import duty on capital equipment, raw materials and excise duty
exemption

Low interest rate loans, priority sector lending

Coal tax

Budgetary Support for MNRE though 2011 Budget has not given anything

UNFCCC Funds – Again not certain as no international agreement ( another pipe dream)

Solar Insolation Map of India to be Developed by CWET as DOE,NASA Data proves Inadequate

30 Jan, 2012

Energy,Solar Energy

Finding accurate Solar insolation data is a difficult problem faced in most countries except Europe and USA. The reason is that there is no history of solar radiation data in most countries as solar power is a relatively new technology. Most of the solar developers rely on data from NASA, DOE and European agencies which focus mostly on their domestic geography. This leads to faulty and inaccurate solar radiation data for other places which are seeing massive solar boom due to falling solar panel prices. India which installed 400 MW of solar power plants in 2011 and should see another 1000 MW in 2012 faces this problems also. There are no devices to record solar insolation in India with data coming from outside.

Note I had written earlier that Solar Radiation Data Absence is one of the major problem being faced by Indian solar developers. The government is now getting into the act with Chennai based CWET to collect solar radiation data in India. This government agency has been instrumental in facilitating the development of wind power in India making it the world’s 5th biggest wind energy market. It has been collecting wind speed information for a long time and now will collect solar insolation data as well . There are some private companies which are selling solar maps as well but a government solution seems best.

Note solar insolation data can make a massive difference in solar project returns with a 5-10% difference in solar data making a 2-3% difference in returns.

Solar Power in India is one of the biggest opportunities in the field of energy in the 21st century and Indian state and federal governments are strongly supporting by providing incentives and subsidies.A number of companies and startups have entered this green industry field lured by the multi billion investment potential in the coming decades.But the Solar Power field is not that easy to crack as many of the small inexperienced developers are learing to their detrminent.India has hardly any history of large scale grid solar projects with only 18 MW installed till date (compare that to India’s total electricity capacity of 178,000 MW).During JNNSM bidding a large number of small no name companies bid absurdly low amounts to win projects and many of them will now be cancelled as most of them are nowhere near financial closure.

The government has decided to cancel JNNSM licenses of companies who won projects and have failed to find debt financing by July 9 .This is more drastic step than just fining the companies according to the conditions set out in the JNNSM.I think the companies would find this to be more suitable as they have little chance of not running into losses at the absurdly low prices bid in the JNNSM.The loser will be the Indian solar energy sector though only in the short term.State governments are pushing for solar energy with Maharashtra,Delhi,Gujarat and Rajasthan providing their own subsidies instead of depending on the central goverment.

Lack of Solar Radiation Data a Big Hurdle

Having good solar radiation data is essential for building solar power plants anywhere.USA and European Union have a well-developed insolation map so that developers and investors in solar energy have no difficulty in getting good data while planning an investment.However Indian developers are at a distinct disadvantage as there is no good primary data to go on.Solar Radiation data makes a huge difference to the economics of a project and no bank will give a loan based on incomplete data.For the inexperienced developers this has become another problem among a host of other problems.With little understanding of the technology and other factors,many of them jumped in and are now in a deep soup.However the prospects of the Indian solar energy are great even with these initial hiccups.The flushing out of the weak hands should help in strengthening the solar energy industry in India in the best traditions of capitalism.

CWET News

Now, an obscure government agency based in Chennai is promising to change that. It hopes to deliver within two years a state-of-the-art solar atlas of India that could clear a major hurdle obstructing speedy development of solar power projects.

The atlas, which will identify the solar hotspots where the sun’s radiation has optimum intensity for power generation, will enable developers to accurately pinpoint locations for projects, according to the Centre for Wind Energy Technology, which is creating the database.

The expectation is that project developers, armed with the information, will be able to predict the plant’s output with reasonable accuracy. Also, they can make a better choice of which solar technology (photovoltaic, solar thermal or any other) to use.

Indian Renewable Energy Stocks – Bubble Bursting or Investor Panic

26 Jan, 2012

Energy,Orient Green Power,Renewable Energy,Solar Energy,Suzlon,Wind Energy

Quick quiz. What is common to Suzlon, Moser Baer, Indo Solar, Websol Energy systems and Orient Green Power? All these stocks had successful runs on the stock market and hyped as the next game changers in wind energy, semi conductors, solar power and hydel/geo thermal power. Valuations were more on growth stories than through an hard nosed DCF spreadsheet. But now, they trade at record lows(like other stocks but what is different is the pressing fundamental concerns in each case). Is this a bubble finally bursting, or are investors panicking?

Suzlon cherishes an ambitious vision of being the technology leader in the wind sector, and among the top three wind companies in all the key markets of the world. It expects that by 2015, total worldwide installation of wind energy would cross 442 GW which is almost 2.3 times of the current installation. This will cover about 7.5% of the global electricity supply by then, as opposed to just 4% now. But the solar bubble collapse in Spain, France and Germany(where subsidies were almost withdrawn) has put concerns on the very business model of solar(preferential feed in tariffs at peak hours(morning/noon)), as mentioned by First Solar in its 10K filing. So with gradual withdrawal of subsidies to wind energy generators, will Suzlon be able to regain pricing power for its equipment? Even in India, the most recent round of wind energy purchase tenders, saw bidders discount the CERC approved tariffs of Rs 17.91 by nearly 30%-35%, indicating that new players are willing to slash prices to gain market share. This would impact supplier pricing as well.
Moser Baer, Indo Solar and Websol Energy systems, wanted to capitalize on the boom in demand for solar photovoltaic cells. Indo Solar wanted to take benefit of the 25% capital subsidy scheme for project capex over Rs 1,000 crores( as per the Special Incentive Package scheme announced by the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, Government of India). But the global over supply(especially from China) backed by costs increases in key raw materials, led to EBITDA margin compressions, and short of domestic protectionism, I do not see a bright future for these stocks. While they are all trying vertical integration, entering into adjacent industries etc, the core business model is facing challenges due to global supply scenario, and price driven market.
Orient Green Power is a slightly different proposition though. In 1H’12(Sep11 half year) alone, it added 80MW of wind energy, and had 300MW generation capacity(250MW wind+50MW biomass) in operation. However, with 250MW capacity wholly in Tamil Nadu and that State Electricity Board being in financial distress, investors seem to have discounted the stock which trades at P/BV of 0.5, despite its aggressive growth plans to reach 550MW capacity by Jun’12! At market cap of Rs 610 crores(with debt of Rs 190crores), the company had an EV of Rs 800 crores(assuming the Rs 170 crores of cash offset the current liabilities of Rs 195 crores, as the loans and advances of Rs 808 crores would presumably not be liquid), which would imply an EV of Rs 2.67 crores/MW, nearly half the estimated Rs 5.3cr/MW replacement cost of that capacity.

So have the factors affecting thermal power stocks(bankruptcy like status of SEBs, increased fuel costs, project execution delays) rubbed off disproportionately on these stocks as investors blindly herd together to sell power stocks? Or is it that the favourable economics may change? For export oriented equipment manufacturers like Suzon, the subsidy withdrawal story may play out, but for domestic generators, the national solar mission and other such plans would seem to give a secure price floor and assured market to sell the generated power. These stocks are worth tracking though, as a hedge against the general power sector decline.

The paragraphs below features previous GWI takes on the above Green Stocks and is not part of Anand’s article

You can read about the GWI List of Green Companies in India

Previous GWI take on whether Suzlon is a falling Knife

Suzlon History

Suzlon,the Indian Wind Turbine making company has languished in red ink since the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.The company started by Tulsi Tanti in 1995 was a shining example of Asian CleanTech with a 10% global marketshare and ranking amongst the top 5 Wind Turbine Makers .Suzlon buoyed by its success had bought controlling equity stakes in Turbine Gears producer Hansen Transmission and European Wind Turbine producer Repower.Suzlon wanted to leverage Repower’s technological expertise to enhance its own product offering.Like other Indian companies with global ambitions like Hindalco,Tata Steel and Tata Motors,it took on a lot of debt to buy these companies at the peak of the global economic cycle.The GFC resulted in a twin whammy for Suzlon.On one hand its end markets collapsed as project financing disappeared and on the other hand its huge debt burden became unsustainable.The company has failed to recover from the GFC as competition in the Wind Turbine industry has increased with the rise of Chinese players like Sinovel,Goldwind and A-Power.With the 2 biggest markets of USA and China dominated by domestic players,Suzlon has become a shadow of its former self.While other Indian companies have recovered strongly with the Global Economy,Suzlon continues to lose huge amounts of money.Its recent 2Q10 results were quite bad resulting in the share shedding 6% to Rs 50.This is almost 90% below its peak price in the heady days of 2008 .So is Suzlon a Fallen Angel which could turnaround to become a multibagger or a Falling Knife luring investors into further losses.Here are the pros and cons of the argument.

Orient Green Power IPO Analysis

Orient Green Power Ltd (OGPL) is India’s Largest Green Utility and is one of the areas that is a good way to invest in India’s Green Energy Sector.The company is owned by the Shriram Group and a couple of PE Players will issue around Rs 900 crores (~$180mm) which will result in a market cap of $450mm.OGPL is a relatively new company setting up and acquiring most of its 200 MW capacity in the last year which comprised of 152 MW of Wind Energy and the rest is Biomass Energy.The company plans to increase this capacity 4 fold to around 1000 MW in the next couple of years with Power Plants in India,Europe and Sri Lanka.The centerpiece of this expansion will be a 300 MW Wind Energy Plant in Tamil Nadu for which $10 million has been already been spent.The company’s past profits and cash flow have been negative which is not exactly a concern given that most of the capacity was set up in the last year or so.I like the company’s growth plans and the sector in which it operates.India suffers from a huge power deficit and Renewable Energy is being heavily promoted through Government Subsides and Renewable Energy Mandates by the CERC.Trading of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) should start in a year or so giving additional revenue streams to Green Energy Producers.Here are the pros and cons of the issue

(The author Anandh Sundar is from the IIM Ahmedabad 2010-12 batch, and a ranker in CA/CS/CWA exams. He blogs at http://financeandcapitalmarkets.blogspot.com/, and http://specialsituationsindia.blogspot.com/ and has a keen interest in investing)

Germany to Axe Solar Panel Installations by More than Half in 2012

19 Jan, 2012

Germany,Solar Energy,Solar Panels

Germany has always faced many twists and tales with regards to its solar subsidies in the last 2-3 years. The reason is that the targeted solar panel installations are always more than what the government is trying for . While the German government is reaching for around 50 GW by 2020 , more than 20 GW of solar panels have been installed in by 2011 itself with a monstrous 3 GW surge of solar modules in December of 2011 itself. This means that Germany needs only about 3 GW of solar panel installs per year while it did around 7.5 GW in 2010 and 2011.

There is urgent need to reduce the solar capacity addition in Germany because

a) It is requiring almost half of the $21 billion renewable energy subsidies in 2011 while generating 3% of the total power

b) Too much solar power while put pressure on the power grid as at the peak afternoon hours solar can generate almost 10% of Germany’s power requirement which means shutting down other sources

c) German Solar Panel producers have stopped benefiting from German domestic growth. Most solar companies in Germany have been decimated by Chinese competition and around 20000 solar jobs and 5000 companies have shut down.

The German economy and environment minister are on the same page saying that the German Feed in Tariffs will have to be reduced as the returns on putting solar panels is still very high.There are a number of proposals that are being considered on top of the 15% expected cut in FIT in July of 2012.One is a 30% cut instead of 15%.Others are a 2% cut each month in 2012 to let the solar developers adjust for the change. Expect solar demand in Germany to be very high as installers get aggressive to keep ahead of the subsidy cut.

German Solar December Surge

The German Solar Energy Market is biggest in the world and has installed the largest number of solar panels for the last few years. 2012 promises to be no different with Germany again set to the biggest solar market for solar panel manufacturers though Italy would give good competition. The German Solar Subsidy program has been the best in the world unlike the start and stop feed in tariff programs of Spain,Czech,UK,Australia and other places. A stable step in cut of feed in tariffs has helped solar energy prices coming down by more than 50% in the last few years though demand has only increased.

The influx of cheap solar panels from China has let the December 2012 explode to almost 2-3 GW according to the German solar association BSW. The high rates of return of over 10% due to super cheap Chinese solar panels at 80-90c/watt has been the major reason for the explosion in demand which could be the biggest month in Germany ever. While German Solar Market has remained robust as ever,the German solar panel producers like Solon, Sunways have been vanquished with a number of major solar companies failing and getting acquired. The Asian solar companies have been the major beneficiaries of this demand growth in Germany and Europe.

Reuters

Germany’s large number of solar installations is still expanding too rapidly and must be restricted if the market is to be kept sustainable, German Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen said on Wednesday.Roettgen said while the government had aimed for new installations of about 3 GW last year, the figure had reached 7.5 GW, despite cuts to subsidies over the last two years in what is the world’s largest solar market.”We need to reduce new installations,” he said at an annual energy conference organised by German newspaper Handelsblatt. “Seven gigawatts (GW) a year is a no-go.”

The returns are still high in 2012 with existing FIT , so the German government may have to plan additional cuts with plans of

a) cut of 2% FIT every month in 2012 to slow down the installations and bring down the solar system IRR

b) a cap on feed in tariffs to solar systems of 3 kilowatts only .This will prevent larger solar installations and building of large solar farms

Note Germany Feed in Tariffs have always followed many twists and turns each time as installations have always exceeded expectations.

The German Solar Feed in Tariff cut scheduled for July 2010 has got another twist with the Upper House of German Parliament Bundesrat not passing the Law in its current form.The one-off German Feed in Tariff cut has seen enough twists and turns to make a person go giddy . It all started with the new German government deciding to cut the highSolar FIT which was leading to outsized returns for investors installing solar panels in Germany leading to a situation similar to Spain’s 2008 solar frenzy .The reason was that the solar module prices had gone down by almost 50% in 2009 with the FIT rate ( higher subsidized electricity rates given to generators of renewable energy) going down by the only scheduled 10% .So in addition to the annual 10% 2010 cut , the German government decided to add another 16% Feed in Tariff cut byMay 2010 which led to a huge uproar from the industry.This led to a lot of bargaining between the industry,the coalition partners of the German government and the various industry lobbies.Ultimately the law went in with almost the same percentage of cuts but the cut was delayed from May to July . With the German Lower House Bundestag passing the government proposal , the Bundesrat’s approval was only supposed to be formality.However it seems that the Eastern German states which have the most to lose in terms of jobs and taxes from these cuts want to reduce the quantum of the cuts which in their original form would lead to a ~35% cut in one year.The law which is supposed to go into effect by July 1 might see more delays as it leads to more negotiations.

Solar Panel Bankruptcy Insurance – New Financial Instrument by Munich Re for Small Solar Companies / Developers

18 Jan, 2012

Solar Energy

Solar Insolvency Protection is a new financial product that is going to be introduced by Munich Re the giant German reinsurer. Note Munich Re has been at the forefront of introducing insurance products for solar energy. It was one of the first companies to provide an insurance against the 25 year solar warranty which is generally given by solar companies for their solar modules.It has introduced it for LDK Solar Panels before moving onto other companies as well.

Now the threat of insolvencies has increased, Munich Re has got a new financial instrument for these bankruptcy times. Note a number of solar companies have gone bankrupt , Evergreen Solar , Solyndra and Solon among the famous ones. With prices low and margins non existent , many other small solar companies are expected to go under in the next year or so. Despite a surge in German solar demand in December, things are still pretty bad with solar panel prices near 80c/watt and most companies bathed in red ink. Some of the biggest solar companies like LDK are effectively insolvent as well without the Chinese government support.

Munich Re has played the renewable energy game quite well. It has also invested its long term money into green energy projects which give good returns with very little risk as the returns are implicitly backed by the governments.Munich Re is also a member of the Desterec project which aims to build gigawatts of solar farms in the Sahara.

LDK and Sunpower would have been bankrupt

LDK Solar is one of the most insolvent companies in the world right now with billions of dollars in debt,a battered balance sheet,continuing losses and dodgy accounting.However LDK has acquired a German company Sunways and continues to build new solar power plants as the Chinese state owned banks continue to fund it with cheap money without any consideration about losing their investments.LDK has become the poster boy of the Solarworld complaint against Chinese solar panel producers as it continues to run and thrive despite being insolvent.The Chinese government is hurting itself and its other solar companies like Trina,Yingli which are more competitive by continuing to support and increase the global glut of cheap solar panels.These solar panels are being clearly sold at below cost as most of the companies would be bankrupt without these absurd loans which make no free market sense

Sunpower another of the biggest solar companies in the world too is surviving due to its big parent Total.Note the CEO of Total was candid enough to say that Sunpower would be facing Chapter 11 without its support.Total just increased stake in Sunpower as the company continues to make losses.Sunpower has a high cost structure which in these times means you are dead

Munich Re New

Munich Re said it is offering to insure solar park operators against the risk of their suppliers going bankrupt, saying such cover will make it easier to obtain bank loans to finance major projects.Munich Re said it developed the new insurance product jointly with Deutsche Bank, and sold it for the first time to the operator of a solar park project in southern Italy, jointly financed by Deutsche Bank and Rabobank.

Germany Solar Feed in Tariff may See 2% Cut each month 2012, System Cap at 3 kilowatts due to 7.5 GW 2011

16 Jan, 2012

Germany,Solar Energy

Germany has seen the biggest increase in solar installations in the history of solar energy with 3 GW in the month of December 2011 alone. For perspective this is almost equal to the installed capacity of the Chinese solar energy which has almost 6-7 times as much electricity generating capacity . The massive surge in solar capacity has made even the 15% cut in Feed in Tariff in Jan 2012 look too small. The reason for this huge increase in solar panel demand has been the reduction in solar panel prices by almost 60% which has led to 10% + returns for solar systems. While the existing EEG law will lead to another 15% cut in July 2012 , there might be another 5 GW of solar panels being installed in Germany in the first half of 2012 . Germany power grid is already being strained with 25 GW of solar panel capacity. More installations in such a short time could lead to damage to the grid. The German government wants 4-5 GW of solar installations while the industry is installing 7.5 GW in 2011 and 2010 . This is despite sharp cuts to Feed in Tariffs.

German December Surge in Solar Installations

The influx of cheap solar panels from China has let the December 2012 explode to almost 2-3 GW according to the German solar association BSW. The high rates of return of over 10% due to super cheap Chinese solar panels at 80-90c/watt has been the major reason for the explosion in demand which could be the biggest month in Germany ever. While German Solar Market has remained robust as ever,the German solar panel producers like Solon, Sunways have been vanquished with a number of major solar companies failing and getting acquired. The Asian solar companies have been the major beneficiaries of this demand growth in Germany and Europe.

The massive rise in demand will imply that according to the EEG ,t here will be a 15% cut in July 2012 after a 15% cut in January 2011. This would bring the solar FIT prices quite low and provide a restraint to the galloping German solar energy installations which is reaching more than 25 GW .