Indian Renewable Energy Stocks – Bubble Bursting or Investor Panic

26 Jan, 2012
Energy,Orient Green Power,Renewable Energy,Solar Energy,Suzlon,Wind Energy

Quick quiz. What is common to Suzlon, Moser Baer, Indo Solar, Websol Energy systems and Orient Green Power? All these stocks had successful runs on the stock market and hyped as the next game changers in wind energy, semi conductors, solar power and hydel/geo thermal power. Valuations were more on growth stories than through an hard nosed DCF spreadsheet. But now, they trade at record lows(like other stocks but what is different is the pressing fundamental concerns in each case). Is this a bubble finally bursting, or are investors panicking?

  1. Suzlon cherishes an ambitious vision of being the technology leader in the wind sector, and among the top three wind companies in all the key markets of the world. It expects that by 2015, total worldwide installation of wind energy would cross 442 GW which is almost 2.3 times of the current installation. This will cover about 7.5% of the global electricity supply by then, as opposed to just 4% now. But the solar bubble collapse in Spain, France and Germany(where subsidies were almost withdrawn) has put concerns on the very business model of solar(preferential feed in tariffs at peak hours(morning/noon)), as mentioned by First Solar in its 10K filing. So with gradual withdrawal of subsidies to wind energy generators, will Suzlon be able to regain pricing power for its equipment? Even in India, the most recent round of wind energy purchase tenders, saw bidders discount the CERC approved tariffs of Rs 17.91 by nearly 30%-35%, indicating that new players are willing to slash prices to gain market share. This would impact supplier pricing as well.
  2. Moser Baer, Indo Solar and Websol Energy systems, wanted to capitalize on the boom in demand for solar photovoltaic cells. Indo Solar wanted to take benefit of the 25% capital subsidy scheme for project capex over Rs 1,000 crores( as per the Special Incentive Package scheme announced by the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, Government of India). But the global over supply(especially from China) backed by costs increases in key raw materials, led to EBITDA margin compressions, and short of domestic protectionism, I do not see a bright future for these stocks. While they are all trying vertical integration, entering into adjacent industries etc, the core business model is facing challenges due to global supply scenario, and price driven market.
  3. Orient Green Power is a slightly different proposition though. In 1H’12(Sep11 half year) alone, it added 80MW of wind energy, and had 300MW generation capacity(250MW wind+50MW biomass) in operation. However, with 250MW capacity wholly in Tamil Nadu and that State Electricity Board being in financial distress, investors seem to have discounted the stock which trades at P/BV of 0.5, despite its aggressive growth plans to reach 550MW capacity by Jun’12! At market cap of Rs 610 crores(with debt of Rs 190crores), the company had an EV of Rs 800 crores(assuming the Rs 170 crores of cash offset the current liabilities of Rs 195 crores, as the loans and advances of Rs 808 crores would presumably not be liquid), which would imply an EV of Rs 2.67 crores/MW, nearly half the estimated Rs 5.3cr/MW replacement cost of that capacity.

So have the factors affecting thermal power stocks(bankruptcy like status of SEBs, increased fuel costs, project execution delays) rubbed off disproportionately on these stocks as investors blindly herd together to sell power stocks? Or is it that the favourable economics may change? For export oriented equipment manufacturers like Suzon, the subsidy withdrawal story may play out, but for domestic generators, the national solar mission and other such plans would seem to give a secure price floor and assured market to sell the generated power.  These stocks are worth tracking though, as a hedge against the general power sector decline.

The paragraphs below features previous GWI takes on the above Green Stocks and is not part of Anand’s article

You can read about the GWI List of Green Companies in India

Previous GWI take on whether Suzlon is a falling Knife

Suzlon History

Suzlon,the Indian Wind Turbine making company has languished in red ink since the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.The company started by Tulsi Tanti in 1995 was a shining example of Asian CleanTech with a 10% global marketshare and ranking amongst the top 5 Wind Turbine Makers .Suzlon buoyed by its success had bought controlling equity stakes in Turbine Gears producer Hansen Transmission and European Wind Turbine producer Repower.Suzlon wanted to leverage Repower’s technological expertise to enhance its own product offering.Like other Indian companies with global ambitions like Hindalco,Tata Steel and Tata Motors,it took on a lot of debt to buy these companies at the peak of the global economic cycle.The GFC resulted in a twin whammy for Suzlon.On one hand its end markets collapsed as project financing disappeared and on the other hand its huge debt burden became unsustainable.The company has failed to recover from the GFC as competition in the Wind Turbine industry has increased with the rise of Chinese players like Sinovel,Goldwind and A-Power.With the 2 biggest markets of USA and China dominated by domestic players,Suzlon has become a shadow of its former self.While other Indian companies have recovered strongly with the Global Economy,Suzlon continues to lose huge amounts of money.Its recent 2Q10 results were quite bad resulting in the share shedding 6% to Rs 50.This is almost 90% below its peak price in the heady days of 2008 .So is Suzlon a Fallen Angel which could turnaround to become a multibagger or a Falling Knife luring investors into further losses.Here are the pros and cons of the argument.

Orient Green Power IPO Analysis

Orient Green Power Ltd (OGPL) is India’s Largest Green Utility and is one of the areas that is a good way to invest in India’s Green Energy Sector.The company is owned by the Shriram Group and a couple of PE Players will issue around Rs 900 crores (~$180mm) which will result in a market cap of $450mm.OGPL is a relatively new company setting up and acquiring most of its 200 MW capacity in the last year which comprised of 152 MW of Wind Energy and the rest is Biomass Energy.The company plans to increase this capacity 4 fold to around 1000 MW in the next couple of years with Power Plants in  India,Europe and Sri Lanka.The centerpiece of this expansion will be a 300 MW Wind Energy Plant in Tamil Nadu for which $10 million has been already been spent.The company’s past profits and cash flow have been negative which is not exactly a concern given that most of the capacity was set up in the last year or so.I like the company’s growth plans and the sector in which it operates.India suffers from a huge power deficit and Renewable Energy is being heavily promoted through Government Subsides and Renewable Energy Mandates by the CERC.Trading of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) should start in a year or so giving additional revenue streams to Green Energy Producers.Here are the pros and cons of the issue

 

(The author Anandh Sundar is from the IIM Ahmedabad 2010-12 batch, and a ranker in CA/CS/CWA exams. He blogs at http://financeandcapitalmarkets.blogspot.com/, and http://specialsituationsindia.blogspot.com/  and has a keen interest in investing)

Chinese Wind Tower Companies face Dumping Danger after Solar Panel Makers

3 Jan, 2012
China,USA,Wind Energy

Chinese Solar Panel Producers have become a famous target of an anti dumping petition brought on by Solarworld and other companies.Though US Solar Installers have opposed the move as it will increase the solar panel prices in US,ITC has gone ahead with the investigation.Though the charges of subsidies and efficiency can be debated,the fact remains that US Solar Panel Producers can’t compete with Chinese Solar Panels.Massive industrial overcapacity in China has made the prices of products very cheap and made it difficult for Western producers to compete in most areas such as Chemical,Renewable Energy,Textiles etc.The Chinese win because of their low interest rates,cheap labor,free land,massive government support.

Wind Tower makers in the USA are now bringing forth measures to stop Chinese and Vietnamese wind tower producers from  selling in the USA as well.With the trade relations between China and USA already quite bad,it remains to get worse still if the wind industry also becomes a focus point.Note Chinese wind turbines producers are already the world’s biggest.The price wars in China have made them look to exports and USA has been targeted by these companies.Sinovel and Goldwind are leading the charge.Its a matter of time before other companies target the wind turbine segment as well.Unlike solar panels ,most wind turbines in USA are made locally.

Read about the pros and cons of wind energy

Local wind tower manufacturers complain about Chinese pricing, sign petition

Claiming unfair pricing practices by Chinese and Vietnamese importers, two wind energy companies with local work sites have signed on to a petition asking trade regulators to investigate possible dumping of wind towers into the U.S. market at less than fair value.The group claims the Chinese government uses subsidies to push wind towers into the U.S. market. The petition asks that duties be placed on Chinese and Vietnamese tower imports by the U.S. Department of Commerce and also seeks an investigation by the International Trade Commission.

Green War between USA and China escalates with acceptance of 301 Filing

The Rise of American Protectionism has its chief enemy in the shape of China.Increasing unemployment and slow economic growth make Currency Wars seem  inevitable in the face of shrinking global demand and export loving countries.However Green Wars are something totally new.Clean Technology leadership has been slipping to China,as USA dithers and bickers on climate legislation and energy laws.China has been strategically pumping huge amounts of cash into the new age Green Industries.Other countries like South Korea,Singapore,Malaysia,Japan,Germany,Spain are also making a major push into the Renewable Energy Industry.USA despite its technology leadership has seen Green Jobs melting away towards China and Mexico.With American Public  Sentiment turning heavily against China in recent times,the US Congress and Administration have been pressurizing China on multiple fronts

Greece Referendum on European Bailout – 5 Points you Want to Know

6 Jul, 2011
World Economy and Markets

Greece Referendum is set to become the hottest media topic related to the European Debt  Crisis in the coming months.In a totally surprising move Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called a referendum and a parliamentary confidence vote on 31st October just a week after  the European leaders had agreed on a package to .Papandreou’s personal and government popularity have plunged amid fresh austerity measures that sparked a wave of social unrest.The PM is calling this vote probably to bolster his government as it loses support of the masses.Mr Papandreou, whose ruling Socialist party has suffered several defections as it pushes waves of austerity measures through parliament while protesters rally outside, said he needed wider political backing for the fiscal measures and structural reforms demanded by international lenders.

a) Recapitalize the Eurozone Banks

b) Agreed on a €100bn loan to Athens and Offered a 50% haircut on Greek Debt

c) Promised to increased the size of EFSF to almsot 1 Trilion Euros

This new Referednum promises to set the cat amongst the piegons once again and set off a new wave of crisis.

Here are some points that you need to keep in mind with this referendum

1)  The confidence vote will conclude late on Nov. 4, while the referendum will likely be held after the details of the European accord are tied up.The Referendum is supposed to occur early next year.It will be only Greece’s second in almost 40 years,the first being to oust the Monarchy.Referendum Legality is also being questioned since it can be only held for matters of national importance and not for Economic Matters.

2) The chances of the referendum passing are low as Most Greeks oppose last week’s European deal to address the country’s debt crisis.According to the poll, 58.9% of Greeks judge the new European deal as “negative” or “probably negative” for Greece, while nearly two-thirds said they felt unease, fear or rage at the decisions reached by European leaders.54.2% of Greeks thought a national referendum should be called to approve the new aid deal, compared with 40% who said Parliament should decide.

3) Total Default on Greek Bonds could occur if the Bailout Referendum Occures resulting in a Lehman style Event though probability of that happening is low.What is certain is that till the Referendum happens the Global Financial Markets will be plunged in Volatility

4) The popularity of all major political parties is low with 14-22% approval ratings.Nobody knows whether such unpopular politicians can convince the public of anything let alone a complex referendum which will be decided by emotional appeals rather than a logical cost benefit analysis

5) European Leaders were blindsided by this sudden decision of the Greek government and many consider it a betrayal after going through such painstaking negotiations over the past few months to hammer out a deal.Some consider it as Blackmail by Greece to the whole European Union.Sarkozy is “dismayed” by the Greek plan, Le Monde newspaper reported, citing unnamed people close to Sarkozy.

 

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Greek Debt Deal – Bondholders take 50% Loss- Who Wins and Loses

5 Jul, 2011
Europe,Italy,Spain

According to reports coming from Europe where the summit of major European leaders took place to resolve the growing debt crisis,a deal has been reached on Greek debt.The Euro 350 billion debt which dwarfs the size of the negatively growing Greek economy has been a major source of instability in the last 2 years.The private holders of the Greek government bonds have agreed to take a  50% writeoff on their holdings.This means that if they hold Euro 100 of bonds they have become Euro 50 now as the rest has been written off as bad debt.Not that it was not apparent as Greek CDS and Greek bonds were touching all times lows in the secondary market.In fact the only buyers of Greece bonds were the European Central Bank and the Greek banks.The capital markets had been going up in the last month in the hope of some sort of resolution.The deal does not look like a win win as there will be some big losers in this deal (though they were already losing for some time).Nicolas Sarkozy announced the deal which would be voluntary in nature so that the CDS would not be invoked.Here are the winners and losers from this deal

Losers

1) Greek CDS Holders – They would be one of the biggest losing part as ISDA will not invoke that this is a credit event in which the Greek bonds have defaulted despite the 50% haircut

2) Greek Citizens – They would have been better off if a more sustainable path had been paved since the estimates still call for Greece to have 120% debt to GDP ratio by 2020.This means that they will have to live in a generation of austerity and poverty

3) Greece Pension Funds and French Banks – The French Banks like BNP Paribas,Credit Agricole have the biggest holdings of the debt.So also Pension Funds in Greece and other places which will be suddenly seeing a big hole in their assets column

Winners

1) Euro – The currency has managed to survive this phase of the crisis and has managed to surge at least till now.

2) Italy,Spain and Portugal – The contagion to the bonds of these countries will be contained since Greece has not done a messy default.The yeilds on the bonds of these countries might go down at least temporarily

 

Greek bondholders to take 50% haircut – Marketwatch

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said at a press conference in Brussels that the 50% haircut will be a voluntary agreement.An involuntary writedown could have potentially constituted a “credit event” that would have required the payout on billions of euros in credit default swaps, instruments used to insure debt against non-payment.

Thursday’s deal means that Greece’s debt burden will fall by around €100 billion ($140 billion). Media reports earlier this week had put a possible haircut on Greek government bonds at between 40% and 60%.Sarkozy also announced that the European Financial Stability Facility will see an increase in firepower by four- or five-fold.

An expanded bailout fund is seen as crucial in ensuring that the debt crisis doesn’t engulf Spain and Italy.

India Criticizes Renminbi Undervaluation,Calls for Diversifying away from Chinese Imports

2 Apr, 2011
Brazil,China,USA

India has become the latest country to join in the bashing of Renminbi undervaluation saying it leads to a massive advantage for Chinese exporters.A research paper from India’s Central Bank says that its artificially boosts China giving it a competitive advantage over Indian exports.Note Brazil another one of the famed BRIC quartet has too been complaining about Chinese imports swamping its industry.Note Brazil has seen massive currency appreciation in recent years due to a combination of high interest rates and strong economic fundamentals.

India is also growing concerned about the growing trade deficit with China which totals almost $19 billion.Note it is the same like Brazil where machinery and low tech non commodity imports are killing their domestic industries.The paper calls that India should reduce dependence on Chinese imports which has gone up to 10.7 per cent during 2009-10 from 7.3 per cent five years ago.To avoid the implications in terms of imports, there is a strong need to diversify imports of these items.

The pressure on the Chinese to appreciate the yuan keeps growing by the day.Earlier strong US pressure had made China appreciate its currency by a few percentage points as the US Congress threatened to bring legislation against China labelling it as a currency manipulator.

India being hurt by undervalued yuan: RBI

China’s policy to keep its currency, the renminbi or yuan , artificially undervalued gives it a huge economic advantage and impacts India’s trade, says a research paper released by the Reserve Bank.

In the paper, ‘The Implications of Renminbi Revaluation on India’s Trade’, S Arunachalaramanan and Ramesh Golait of the RBI have said that an artificially undervalued currency gives China a distinct advantage in the export market.

“By keeping renminbi (RMB) undervalued against the US dollar (USD) and depreciating it in line with the USD in the international market without taking into account the economic fundamentals of China, it invariably and distinctly provides competitive advantage over its trade competitors and trade partners including India,” the paper said.

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Vietnam’s Currency Problems underline Political Strength of Dollar

21 Dec, 2010
USA

The Dollar is being relentlessly attacked by Bears due to massive QE program unleashed by the US Fed.However the US Dollar continues to be a safe refuge in many parts of the world.For countries affected by major political and economic problems,dollar is looked upon a safe haven for capital preservation.Many of these places have a history of high inflation and major political upheavals.In these places,Gold and Dollar are looked upon as equals for preserving wealth during times of chaos.

Vietnam serves as a reminder where even citizens of relatively fast growing stable economies look upon as  Dollar as a rock of stability.The South East Asian country has seen high inflation in recent times and numerous devaluations of its currency.The Communist led country has tried to replicate China in many of its policies some of which have backfired.The recent scandal and debt default of a major government owned company has shaken the confidence of investors.With high inflation and depleting foreign reserves,Vietnamese are converting their currency into gold and dollars as black market rates are much lower than official rates.The Vietnam example shows that the strength of the dollar is not only based on its economic  strength but also because of its political and military strength of the USA.While dollar bears keep talking about replacing the USD,there is a hardly any country or grouping which comes close to the USA in terms of stability.Does not seem like  EU,China or Japan will come to replace the USD anytime soon.

Vietnamese seek safety in gold as currency wobbles

Do Hai Ninh has been stashing away her meager earnings until finally saving enough to make a deposit. But the high school teacher isn’t about to put her money into a Vietnamese bank with the value of the local currency steadily dropping. She’s investing in a safer bet: gold.

Jewelry shops and black-market money changers have overflowed with customers in recent weeks, desperate to unload their Vietnamese dong for greenbacks or gold nuggets as the fast-growing Southeast Asian nation is buffeted by double-digit inflation and the near collapse of one of its largest state-owned companies.

The problems have underlined the downsides of the Communist government’s push for rapid economic growth, which has lifted millions out of poverty but created new challenges that the country’s technocrats are often ill-equipped to deal with.

Attempts to create national corporate champions have wasted capital with unwise investments and left state-owned businesses loaded with too much debt. Rapid growth in lending, meanwhile, has not been matched by increases in deposits, a phenomenon partly explained by suspicion of banks after previous bouts of hyper inflation destroyed savings.

It all adds up to a financial system creaking under immense pressures that are reflected in the lack of faith Vietnamese have in their country’s currency.

Last week, Moody’s Investor Services slashed Vietnam’s government foreign currency bond rating to B1 from Ba3 and kept the outlook as negative, meaning it could cut the credit rating again.

It said the country was facing an increased risk of a balance of payments crisis because Vietnam is importing more than it exports, foreign exchange reserves are being depleted to prop up an overvalued currency and foreign capital is fleeing. High inflation, excessive bank lending and problems at Vietnam’s beleaguered state-run shipbuilding conglomerate Vinashin were further reasons for the downgrade, Moody’s said.

The head of Vinashin repeated Monday that the shipbuilder did not have enough cash to make the first repayment of principal due that same day on a $600 million loan from a group of creditors led by Credit Suisse. He told the official Vietnam News Agency that the company was still awaiting word from the lenders on whether they will agree to delay the payment.

The government has said it will not bail out the company, also known as Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group, which owed $4.5 billion (86 trillion dong) in debts as of June. That’s equal to 4.5 percent of the country’s gross domestic product last year. Vinashin has asked creditors for extra time to make good on its payments after the company’s restructuring.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung last month assumed responsibility for the floundering company, blaming its problems on corporate malfeasance and unchecked rapid expansion into numerous areas outside shipbuilding from animal feed to tourist resorts.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s issued a statement last week saying the company’s woes would likely result in higher bad debts at the country’s banks.

“Currently, the government has asked local banks not to collect debts and interest on Vinashin,” said senior Vietnamese economist Le Dang Doanh. “I’m sure the government will have to subsidize the interest for the banks because the banks cannot afford not to collect interest while they have to mobilize savings with increasingly high rates.”

The local currency plunged to an all-time low earlier this month on the black market, hitting 21,600 to one U.S. dollar in the commercial capital Ho Chi Minh City and 21,500 in Hanoi. It was trading at 21,140 in Hanoi gold shops on Tuesday. The official rate was 19,500.

The State Bank has devalued the official dong rate three times since Nov. 2009, reducing its value about 10 percent against the dollar over that time, but it is still widely regarded as overvalued.

“You can see that the dong is losing its value. Everyday, you go to the market and everything is getting more expensive,” she said while exchanging 7.2 million dong ($360) for about 7.5 grams of gold at a bustling gold shop in Hanoi. “It’s a safer place for my savings.”

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