New South Wales Changing the Solar Bonus Scheme to Gross FIT leads to supernormal Returns

New South Wales,Australia had started a very generous Feed in Tariff Scheme known as the “Solar Bonus Scheme” for solar installations under 10 Kw in size.This program which had been started in January 2009 had initially proven to be a failure because it was based on net feed in tariffs which resulted in insufficient returns for solar households.A Change in the scheme in Nov 2009 to change it to Gross Feed in Tariff from Jan 2010 has resulted in a very fast uptake as returns became quite large at 60c/KwH.The Australian Bureaucrats had expected the 50 MW scheme to last till 2012 but the upper limit got hit in 2010 itself.New South Wales Generous Feed in Tariffs hitting Upper Cap prematurely unsurprisingly surprises the Australian Bureaucrats.A Simple Calculation of the Returns on Solar Installations at 60c/KwH would have made it clear to anyone that the scheme would be wildly popular and the upper cap would be hit much before 2012.However the Bureaucrats were surprised by the rapid speed of solar installations under this scheme.No wonder State Control Communism Ideology lost out to Capitalism.

Governments Regularly Design and Implement Faulty Feed in Tariff Schemes around the World

Countries around the world have always managed to shoot themselves on the foot while designing and implementing Feed in Tariff Schemes.Spain did it in 2008 resulting in a Boom and Bust Cycle,Czech is going through the Boom Phase currently while UK seems to be in the starting stage of the Boom.A Bust inevitably follows the Boom,as Bureaucrats never manage to prepare a good incentive scheme to promote Green Energy.It always surprises me how a developed nation government regularly manages to botch up these schemes.Note France cuts its FIT for Solar Energy the 2nd time in less than a year while Spain is again rethinking Renewable Subsidies.Ontario Canada was also thinking of retroactively changing micro FITs before saner minds prevailed.

Popular solar bonus scheme to be reviewed – ABC

The New South Wales Government will review its Solar Bonus Scheme after a faster than expected take up of the incentives to encourage renewable energy.The scheme was established in January and the Energy Minister Paul Lynch says 30,000 households are now being paid to feed renewable energy into the electricity grid.

He says the first milestone of 50 megawatts has now been reached, triggering the review.The government had anticipated that would not happen until 2012.

France is going to reduce the Solar Feed in Tariffs by 12% for Ground Mounted Solar Installations from September 2010 according to a Bloomberg Report.The report led to a sharp decline in French utility EDF’s shares.This is not the first change as France has modified the Solar Feed in Tariff Law by 2-3 times in the last One Year.While the sharp drop in Solar Modules Prices is one of the reasons behind the frequent changes,it does not help the Investor Confidence.Note Renewable Energy is currently more expensive than Fossil Fuel Energy and requires incentives by the government for their promotion.Investors in Solar Plants make money over the years through a guaranteed payment from the Government for the electricity they generate which is known popularly as Feed in Tariff.While Changes are necessary for this Subsidy Scheme,ad hoc changes like that being done by France is a recipe for disaster.Investors look for certainty in Green Policy before investing and haphazard changes by Regulator is a Red Flag for Investors.Note Feed in Tariff Policy has frequently misfired like in the case of Czech and Spain in 2010 and 2009 respectively.

Even Germany has imposed yearly changes on FIT , still it has managed to become the solar capital of the world.2010 was an exception due to a mid year change,still Germany is going to install more solar capacity in 1 month than US’s entire historical installed capacity.This is due to a well laid out policy which instills confidence in investors.The French Government’s FIT cut has good reasons since ground mounted plants have lesser costs and most European countries like Spain are trying to boost residential solar installations.However rapid fire changes are not the answer to a well thought of careful FIT policy.

France to Cut EDF Solar Electricity Price by 12%, Figaro Says – Bloomberg

The French government plans to cut the price paid by Electricite de France SA for solar-generated electricity by 12 percent, Le Figaro reported, citing an unidentified person close to Finance Minister Christine Lagarde.The government yesterday informed the CRE energy regulator of its plan, the newspaper said.

Ontario had released a comprehensive Feed in Tariff program for Green Energy in 2009 leading to a boom in Solar Installations.However the best of FIT programs don’t give a perfect result with some leading to outright bursts.The Czech Solar Boom in 2009-10 closely followed the Spanish boom in 2008.Both were results of faulty Feed in Tariff Policies which lead to a BoomBust Cycle.Ontario had ample opportunity to learn from past experience and its Renewable Energy Subsidy Policy is on the whole quite good.However one part of the FIT program which gave a very generous 80.2c/KwH to micro installations of solar projects under 10 KW was faulty.It led to 160 MW of project applications which were ground mounted with very high production as they used trackers.There was no discrimination between roof and ground mounted micro installations leading to this problem.Note its not possible to install trackers on roofs which can increase the energy by 30-35%.The large number of applications were not factored in by the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) which proposed to retroactively cut those tariffs by 27% for ground plants.This led to a major protest from the Renewable Energy Industry and Investors in these Projects.

Groups oppose solar rate cut – BetterFarming

The Ontario government announced July 2 the rate paid for electricity from ground-mounted, solar-energy production systems would be 58.8 cents a kilowatt under microFIT, a 27 per cent cut from the original price of 80.2 cents a kilowatt. The program provides compensation and a fast-tracked approval process to power generation projects of 10 kilowatts or less.

The province is proposing to apply the new fee to applications submitted but not yet approved. At the time the cut was announced, more than 16,000 applications for consideration under the microFIT program had been submitted, the bulk of which were for ground-mounted solar projects. The 80.2 cents a kilowatt still remains for rooftop projects in the microFIT program.

Ontario Honors Former Contracts after Strident Opposition

The Ontario Government had come under fire for not honoring its contracts which would lead to a loss of confidence in investors.Note Spain too had recently backed down from retroactive Solar FIT cuts after massive pushback by investors.Ontario has however cut the FIT rate on ground mounted plants under 10 KW to 64c/KwH but these rates will only apply to newer plants.The older applications will continue to draw higher electricity tariffs.This is a good step by the Government as it restores investment confidence at a very small cost.This incidence highlights the importance of a well designed FIT policy before implementation.Note a huge FIT proposal has been released by NREL on implementing this very successful subsidy scheme in the USA.

Ontario concedes on solar energy payments – Record.com

Farmers and business owners in Waterloo Region who have invested in ground-mounted solar systems were relieved and happy on Friday after winning concessions from the Ontario government on the price they will get for their solar energy.

The Ontario Power Authority said Friday it will not retroactively lower the price on the energy produced by individual land owners, mainly farmers, who have ground-mounted solar equipment and who applied before July 2 to get paid a premium for producing energy that is fed back into the hydro grid.

The Ontario Power Authority said it will lower the rate to 64.2 cents per kilowatt hour from the original 80.2 cents, but that rate will apply only to people with ground-mounted systems who applied after the government announced a price change on July 2.

Under the micro feed-in-tariff program announced last year, homeowners, farmers and community groups who invest in solar power can get 20-year contracts with the Ontario Power Authority for energy they sell back to the hydro grid.

Ground-mounted solar systems, which are mainly on farms because they are too big for an average residential property, became a thorn in the government’s side. Those systems can track the sun and produce energy much more efficiently than roof-top systems. As a result, they generate more revenue for the owners than the government intended.

That prompted the government to drop the price, which resulted in the protests from those who had already applied for 20-year contracts. Some farmers had arranged for financing in the belief that they would get 80.2 cents for the energy they produced.

United Kingdom has been a laggard in climate change and global warming issues especially compared to its European neighbours.While countries like Italy,Germany and Spain have installed gigawatts of solar energy , UK has installed a measly 32 MW of solar energy till 2009.While UK’s geographical location is not particularly suited for solar energy,Germany does not have better suited areas.However Germany is the biggest solar energy market in the world due to its generous and stable feed in tariffs for solar energy.This is set to change with the United Kingdom implementing Feed in Tariffs (FIT) from April 2010.The program has already seen some success with a large number of applications from residential and commercial customers flooding the regulatory agency Ofgem.

UK’s Feed in Tariffs Well Designed to Support Distributed Small Rooftop Installations

United Kingdom has learned from its neighbors so that its FIT has led to a boom from distributed small installations rather than a few large ground installations which benefit large investors.An examination of the Ofgem data shows that the average size of the solar installations is between 2-3 KW which is markedly less  than the global average.UK’s farmers and commercial establishments like retailers have taken advantage of the scheme as well.United Kingdom has been known for its large offshore wind farms in the Green Energy area.However this well designed policy promises to put United Kingdom in the Solar Energy Map as well.At 5 MW of installations per month UK seems well on its way to install around 100 MW in 2010.However as past experience with Spain and other countries show,solar demand growth is generally underestimated and it may far exceed that in 2010 and 2011 as falling module prices makes returns attractive for installers.

British Subsidies Trigger ‘Solar Revolution’ Under Rainy Skies – Bloomberg

The U.K., known for rain and gray skies, enjoyed record installations of solar panels in July after the government guaranteed prices for electricity from renewable energy up to 10 times market rates.

Photovoltaic panels with the capacity to generate 4.6 megawatts were fitted last month, energy regulator Ofgem said on its website. That’s more than in the whole of 2009, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which forecasts the nation’s solar market will increase 12-fold this year.The government on April 1 introduced feed-in tariffs that fix above-normal prices for electricity from small installations of wind, solar and hydro power. Companies from the German utility E.ON AG to Tesco Plc, the biggest U.K. supermarket, have entered the market. Sharp Corp. is doubling production at its solar cell factory in Wales, which is the biggest in Britain.

“The solar revolution is coming,” said Serge Younes of the industry consultant WSP Environment & Energy. “There are a lot of roofs in the south of the U.K. and a lot of land.”According to Ofgem, 11.3 megawatts of PV were fitted in the first four months of the tariffs’ existence, enough to supply 26,000 homes. That tops the 4 megawatts installed in 2009 and 4.4 megawatts in 2008.

Italian Solar Feed in Tariff Cuts to be More Moderate than Market Expectations

The German government allowed a face saving gesture to the Upper House by moderating the solar feed in tariff cuts by 3% for the 3 months in the 3Q 2010.Despite rumors of sharp cuts in Solar Subsidy,there has been recent moderation in Renewable Energy Subsidy Cuts by Italy and Spain.The Italian Solar Subsidy Policy for 2011 is also expected to be passed in early July.The recent proposal which have been as usual delayed seems to be better than industry expectations and much more rational in their rollout.The main features of the Feed in Tariff Policy from 2011 will be

  1. A 20% cut in Feed in Tariffs in 2011 to be rolled out in 3 phases with 4 months gap.So apparently a 6.66%  cut in January and so on.
  2. A 30% cut in FIT for solar plants greater than 5 MW.This should not have much repercussions as most of the capacity is lower than 5 MW.The German experience shows that the market can easily adapt to lower solar project sizes.
  3. A 3000 MW cap on the installations during this phase with a target of 8000 MW by 2020.This proposal seems weird.Italy with its huge sunny areas and high retail electricity prices is already approaching grid parity in some places.Expect the 8000 MW target by 2020 to be far exceeded.
  4. 6% cuts in solar subsidy in 2012 and 2013.This might have to be changed if Italy sees a massive boom like Spain did in 2008 and Czech Republic in 2009

Italy First Country to reach Solar Grid Parity on a Large Scale

Italy’s high electricity retail prices and superior solar insolation makes it naturally attractive to solar energy generation.With solar insolation almost 50% higher than Germany and Feed in Tariffs equal to if not higher than Germany,Italy has seen a massive boom in solar installations in 2010.The project ROI for solar plants has made it a lucrative target for all solar companies leading to a scarcity of solar components.Expect this boom to continue forward as the the 20% cuts will fail to dent the enthusiasm of solar developers who are seeing 20%+ project IRRs in that country.Italy’s target  of 8000 MW by 2020 will be far exceeded in my humble opinion.Some parts of the country are already at grid parity and by 2012-2013 you should see the first unsubsidized solar projects.

Italy set to cut solar incentives: industry sources – Reuters

Italy‘s new, long-awaited solar incentive plan includes gradual cuts in feed-in tariffs of up to 30 percent next year and 6 percent in both 2012 and 2013, two industry sources told Reuters on Friday.Italy‘s regional governors approved the government’s three-year solar incentives plan on Thursday. The Industry Ministry is due to release the details on Friday.Solar energy has boomed in Italy, Europe’s third-biggest solar market, since the launch in 2007 of the current support scheme, which expires this year. Incentives, among the most generous in Europe, have lured investors and the world’s biggest producers of solar power systems.

Incentives for big photovoltaic (PV) installations — which turn sunlight into power — with a capacity of more than 5 megawatts (MW) will be slashed every four months by a total of up to 30 percent next year, said Gianni Chianetta, chairman of the Assosolare industry body.He and another industry source, who asked to remain unnamed, cited the final version of the government’s plan presented for approval on Thursday to a key state body on relations between regions and central government.They were not aware if changes were introduced during the discussion on Thursday.”We are fairly satisfied … It is important to have the (national incentives) plan to be able to make investment plans for next year. The situation was critical before,” Chianetta said.

The Spanish Government had been rumored to retroactively cut 30% of state guaranteed Feed in Tariffs for Solar Energy.This has led to a huge protest from the Spanish Solar Industry as well as major global Renewable Energy Investors.Note Spain has the Second Largest Solar Installed capacity in the world.Favorable returns from solar plants had led to a huge gold rush in 2008 leading to an equally dramatic crash.From more than 2.5 GW of solar capacity added in 2009,the market declined by 90% in 2009 as Spain clamped down hard on new solar installations.The Feed in Tariff scheme which has been implemented in many countries allows for higher fixed electricity rates for renewable energy generators.One of the main attractions of this subsidy is that it gives the investors a stable fixed return compared to other forms of Renewable Energy Subsidies.

From Investor’s viewpoint, the Spanish proposal of retroactively reducing the subsidy would have violated the Spirit of the Law if not its Actual Wording.It would have been a first in the Feed in Tariff policy in the world as no one has done a retroactive cut before.It could have seriously dented the Industry not only in Spain but also in other parts of the world.Investors would be highly reluctant to invest in a Sector where government would Arbitrarily change the rules of the game in the middle.This could have also led to a dramatic setback for the European Union’s lofty targets on Climate Change Mitigation and Renewable Energy targets.Private Capital is an essential factor in promotion of  Renewable Energy  and this Spanish action might have devastated this source of funding.There has been news that Investors had been pressurizing the Spanish authorities in reconsidering their action.There had also been reports that investors might consider legal action on the European Union level as well as potential backlash against Spanish Government Bonds as well.Most of these reports had been quite vague but a recent report explicitly mentions that Danish Pension Funds writing to Spanish and EU authorities voicing their concerns.With such Big Heavyweights joining the fray,its no wonder that Spain is reconsidering its whole Renewable Energy Policy.

Danish pension funds take on Spain over solar tariffs – IPE

AP Pension, PensionDanmark and PBU, three Danish pension providers with assets totaling €30bn, have written to the Spanish government and the EU Climate Action Commissioner voicing their concerns about Spain changing the tariffs for its solar power industry retroactively.The three providers, with some 700,000 members, have been investing in the Spanish solar power sector for the past two years as part of their socially responsible investments.Through its consortium, Green Power Partners, the funds have committed to invest €100m in the renewable energy projects, including €25m in Spanish solar energy plants.In their letter to Elena Salgado, Minister of Economy and Finance, and Miguel Sebastian, Minister of Industry, Tourism and Trade, the trio expressed their concerns about reports that the Spanish government may consider changing the structure and/or the level of feed-in tariffs that have been committed to the solar plants commissioned in the past three years.Peter Olsson, chairman of Green Power Partners and head of property at AP Pension, said the move, if true, could spell the end of the renewal energy sector and cause huge damage for years to come.

Spain and Italy rethink their plan of Renewable Energy Subsidy Cuts

With the Solar  Association of Spain giving dire warnings and Investors ready to sue the government,their has been apparently  been a change of heart .Recent reports from Spain indicate that the government is rethinking its policy of Green Energy Subsidy Cuts.First  Fotowatio  CEO said that he thought that the retroactive cut would not happen after meeting with the deputy Industry Minister..Second the Spanish government has postponed its recent July 1 deadline on Energy Reforms.It will try and build a consensus on the country’s Renewable Energy policies after talking with the main Opposition Party.It seems a good decision,since Renewable Energy Investment requires first and foremost a stable government policy.