EVs in India

The Indian solar industry is dominated by Chinese solar companies which push huge amounts of cheap solar products into the country which has driven the domestic manufacturing into the ground. This has been the common modus operandi of Chinese companies not only in the solar industry but even in other industries where sheer scale and costs have made them dominant.

Despite the duties and protection, Chinese companies have a huge advantage that cannot be surpassed by Indian companies. The same kind of story may be played out in the Indian automobile industry which is going through the nascent transition towards EVs from ICE vehicles. Unlike the solar industry, the Indian automobile industry accounts for 49% of the total manufacturing industry and contributes a huge 7% to the GDP. The recent slowdown in the auto industry has led to huge job losses and been a big factor in contributing to the overall slowdown in the economy. The Indian government cannot afford to repeat the fiasco of solar manufacturing in EV manufacturing.

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The Chinese EV industry is the 900-pound gorilla in the global EV industry having a dominant base in manufacturing of components, vehicles as well as the control of the key raw materials like lithium and cobalt. It is estimated that almost 73% of the total lithium battery storage is manufactured in China and the Middle Kingdom has plans to set up many multi gigawatt plants in the future as well. China has also developed a solid end demand with hundreds of thousands of buses and bikes already operating in the country. Its vehicle manufacturers have matured their technology and have scale. They could eventually dominate the Indian market as well, given their huge advantages.

The current FAME scheme which has subsidies being given for two-wheelers, buses, and commercial four-wheelers is already seeing dumping of second rate quality batteries from China. Given the cost sensitivity in the Indian market, manufacturers find it very profitable to source batteries from China rather than procuring from the domestic market where there is not much capacity anyway. While China is moving towards high quality and better density batteries, it finds it useful to dump lower quality products in India. It is similar to what was seen in the past by Chinese solar panel makers which were selling panels at a lower price in India. While this has reduced with better quality control, this still remains an issue.

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