Module prices to increase in USA

Solar system prices in the USA will not fall at the same rate, as a key component – solar panels become more expensive. USA is all set to include Taiwanese made solar cells as part of its anti-dumping measure on Chinese solar panel imports. This means that Chinese made solar panels will increase in price from around 70c/watt to around 80c/watt. The reason is that Chinese solar panel giants such as Trina Solar (TSL), Renesola (SOL) and others will no longer be able to source Taiwanese made solar cells and avoid duties. There is no other country which makes solar cells in large quantities and of decent quality. Chinese made solar panels are at least 20% cheaper than the other foreign solar panels. This is going to negatively affect the uptake of solar energy systems in the USA, which has seen a 50% plus CAGR growth rate in the recent years.

I think that solar systems will still fall in costs as the softer costs and financing costs make up the bigger chunk of the total system cost. Solar modules have long ceased to be the most expensive part of the system, as their costs have been falling rapidly in the last few years due to massive Chinese capacity expansion. The Chinese have captured more than 70% of the USA market like other countries because of their cheap costs and large scale. The other major countries such as Korea, do not have the scale and cheap costs to match the Chinese and the Taiwanese makers.

USA is shooting itself in the foot with these ITC measures, as it will only increase the cost of US consumers and lead to energy insecurity. USA would be better off doing a deal with China, which would provide it better market access for its competitive products. Polysilicon manufactured in the USA has faced retaliatory measures from China and led to loss of good high paying jobs. USA is also competitive in manufacturing high quality solar manufacturing equipment and high technology solar components. It should leverage its innovation strengths, rather than focus on commodity manufacturing where it can only hope to compete in the near future.