Solar Power in India has been growing at a rapid clip due to a number of favorable factors

1) Big Energy Deficit

2) Lots of Sulight

3) Falling prices of Solar Panels

4) Favorable government subsidies.

Indian Solar Power Capacity in 2012

Many of the small firms have been weeded out and the developers and banks have got some experience in this new solar industry.Expect 2012 to be much better and expect at leas a doubling of the solar power capacity as both phase 1 and phase 2 winners in JNNSM complete projects.Rajasthan,Gujarat and Karnataka state subsidies should also see some projects being complted

Solar Power Capacity in India in 2012 should be around 1 GW which is not bad and will make it one of the top 10 Solar Markets in the world.

Income Inequality is a Theme that is getting played across the world in developing as well as developed nations.Most of the turmoil in 2011 in the Middle East and the Occupy Wall Street Movement can be attributed to the growing Income Gap between the Have and Have -Nots.The Great Recession in 2008 can also be looked upon as a fallout of this.Gini’s Coefficient which measures the income distribution gap has shown continued deterioration all over the world.The Middle Class is shrinking and growing poor by the day and it is not only the Poor Class that is getting affected.

The Indian Energy Sector has seen massive investments by Private Equity and Investment Banking Groups in the West.Green focused utilities like Orient Green Power and Greenko are already listed in the public markets.Big PE firms like Blackstone,Appollo and KKR has put money into Indian electricity companies as well.Despite losses and adverse conditions being faced,this sector continues to attract money.Leap Green Energy which is backed by the family of India’s ace motor racer Narain Karthikeyan has got Rs 100 crore in funding from JP Morgan one of the biggest investment banks in the world.

Securitization has emerged as New Funding Model for Capital Intensive Solar Energy Projects.In India Welspun Energy which is a solar developer with a solar plant in Gujarat has managed to securitize the project.Securitization in finance refers to pooling of various cash flows generated from different assets such as mortgages,recievables etc.Note Securitization has become a dirty word in finance as subprime property mortgages in the US were sold as AAA security products.However in case of Solar Energy they may prove to be a boon.Note financing of debt has become a big problem in building solar farms.Securitization can be an ideal way forward as it spreads the risks and allows the loans to be given to solar developers.

China faces multiple challenges

1) Slowdown in Europe and USA means that their exports are sputtering and manufacturing has already started contracting

2) Protests in cities and villages grows against rampant corruption and land grabbing by Communist officies.Lack of democracy means violent protests at times.

3) Debt is becoming a huge problem with local government vehicles facing trouble as they can no longer raise money from real estate sales which has fallen by 20-25%

4) Massive industrial overcapacity is being exported outside.This has made the other trading nations put duties and curbs.A big trade war with USA cannot be ruled out.Chinese solar and wind products faced countervailing duties and dumping charges.China has already imposed high duties on US car imports.

Note Chinese companies too would have shut down but the state owned Chinese banks are keeping them alive with loans at ridiculous interest rates.LDK which is buying Sunways is almost insolvent as well with its convertibles trading at less than 50c on the dollar in Singapore.It has more than n$3 billion in debt compared to its market cap of around $600 million.It faces massive losses in the coming qtrs and can’t serve the interest payments much less expand.The strong support of the Chinese government for its green companies is keeping them alive.Chinese solar panels have become super cheap due to companies selling at below cost and massive scale.Note all the cheap solar panel brands in the world are Chinese with the exception of First Solar and some Asians.

LDK has managed to spend 22 million Euros despite burning hundred of millions of dollars in cash because it has got the Chinese government trillions backing it.So while Western companies burn and crash,the big crony Chinese companies can expand and acquire.

Most of the German solar manufacturing industry is finished and it is unlikely that except a couple of them like SM Solar or Wacker will live to see 2013.Q-Cells too should go bankrupt or get consolidated .Note despite European companies shifting factories to Asia ,they just can’t compete.Some of the smaller module makers with 20 MW plants have seen huge losses with the equipment not selling for 10 cents on the dollar