German Feed in Tariffs Cut Passes with Minor Change
The German Solar Feed in Tariff Cut was finally passed after byzantine twists and turns over a 9 month period.The compromise worked out between the Upper and Lower Houses of German Parliament was finally passed.The new proposal gives a face saving moderation to the cuts over a 3 month period between July to September.The proposed one off cuts of between 11-16% will now be fully be implemented from October while the 3rd quarter of 2010 will see cuts of between 8-13%.This is very mildly positive for the German solar demand as market had already factored in the whole cut from July 2010 itself.It gave a minor concession of 3% to the State members of the Upper House of Parliament ,so that they would also put their signature to these cuts.
Solar inverter leader SMA Solar raises 2010 demand forecast to 14 GW much to the “analyst and market research firm’s” surprise
Note German Solar Demand even with these huge one time cuts is seeing massive growth.Industry estimates for 2010 German demand range from 6-10 Gw which is greater than the entire world demand in 2009 which was a record year.The continuous fall in module prices and easing of credit conditions has led to their huge boom in demand.Most analysts have been caught napping and are now waking up with increased estimates and raising of stock price targets.SMA Solar recently upped its 2010 solar demand from 9-11 GW to 14 GW.Unlike a lot of these “analysts”,SMA’s forecast is much more reliable given its almost 40-50% global marketshare of the solar inverter market.Solar prices across the entire supply chain are increasing compared to “analyst” estimates of a 10-15% ASP decline expected as late as early Q2 2010.In the fast changing solar market,the so called expert “analysts” and “market researchers” remain far behind the curve.
Germany‘s lower house of parliament agreed on Thursday to a compromise proposal for a slight reduction in cuts to solar power incentives over a three-month transition period.
The compromise was designed to resolve a political impasse over Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plans to cut the feed-in tariffs for new rooftop solar installations because prices for solar power equipment have fallen so steeply in recent years.
The Bundestag agreed to the compromise from a mediation committee to cut the tariffs by 13 percent in July and then another 3 percentage points to 16 percent from October.
The solar inverter market leader, SMA Solar Technology has made a significant upward revision to its revenue guidance for 2010 on the back of strong demand. The company said it expected revenue to be between €1.5 and €1.8 billion for the year. Previously, SMA Solar guided revenue to be between €1.1 and €1.3 billion. The worldwide solar market could reach 14GW installed, compared to previous expectations of the market reaching 9GW to 11GW in 2010.